USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Latest guidance does not give me any more confidence in a potential snow map, so I will delay until tomorrow 6z runs. If the SREFs mean is still higher than all guidance, there might be something that means sees other than the other model guidance. What it sees is the northern stream energy over Canada lifting northeastward out over the North Atlantic Ocean by 48-hours. There is a 50/50 low in place, there is a strong western CONUS ridge (+PNA) in place, we have the cold air present, and we have a southern branch storm system, we have all the ingredients we need for a major New England winter storm. Why isn't the model guidance showing it reaching the SNE coastline? It should at least impact BOS to PVD area right? Well in most cases the models seem to agree on the consensus of tracks for H85-H50 low tracks and development of those lows, however, this time around there is tremendous disagreement in the guidance as a whole. The most bullish guidance brings Cape Cod about 19" of snow, one of the SREF individual members. The mean brings 6-8" of snow to the outer Cape Cod and Nantucket areas, while the most other guidance exception being the HIRES short range HRRR and RAP models which agree with the more robust SREFs mean. NAM guidance is offbeat, nothing in agreement, GFS is progressive as well. I am leaning with the more robust models given that the WV shows what I see in the SREFs, but I will not show a snowfall map until after 6z runs tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 3z RAP is going bananas for Cape and Islands snowfall, over .50 to 1.00" of QPF as all snow, so far through 31 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Dew point is increasing, up to 11F, from a low of 4F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 3z RAP shows the major deformation band sitting over Cape and Islands for about at least 12-18 hours maybe longer, with QPF amounts of 1-2" on 12:1 ratios 1-2 feet of snow potentially, something we cannot ignore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Pretty sure we can, and always have, ignored the RAP. Idk man I’m rooting for you to pull off a 1980 USA over Russia type of miracle here, but you were better off just not caring at all about this storm and being pleasantly shocked if that miracle did occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hope for some OE snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 3z SREFs mean even better for Cape Cod and the Islands, with ACK tickling with the 1" of QPF line and almost hitting CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Greatest Pressure falls over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 9z RAP backs off the deformation band over Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Why is there a thread for clouds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Why is there a thread for clouds ? I'm still watching the SREFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 ALl observations suggest the coastal storm is finally taking shape along the greatest pressure falls from SC to NC coastline, it will be heading northeastward, and depending upon how strong it gets will determine the final northern push of the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: ALl observations suggest the coastal storm is finally taking shape along the greatest pressure falls from SC to NC coastline, it will be heading northeastward, and depending upon how strong it gets will determine the final northern push of the deformation band. No model shows the storm coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No model shows the storm coming up the coast SREFs do. NAM HIRES is very close to producing a big storm for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Light snow here In NYC Dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Seriously what is the point of this thread? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Seriously what is the point of this thread? So he doesn’t post this in the main thread 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The RAP is an excellent model but should only be used inside of 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'm expecting 4 to 8" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The RAP is an excellent model but should only be used inside of 12 hours. And the SREFs should never be used as your sole reasoning for a snowstorm hitting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Stay safe and I genuinely mean that. If Ray comes knocking at your door remember it’s self defense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Jimmy isn't going to like the SREFS.. starting to get back to reality except for a couple members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Jimmy isn't going to like the SREFS.. starting to get back to reality except for a couple members Shocked. Might grab some coastal front OES stuff later up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shocked. Might grab some coastal front OES stuff later up here. Deformation band OES? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 I admit I was hoping instead of using my brain on this one, while I still saw out to sea, I was hoping for a trend northwest, this winter is not happening that way. Onto the football game today and then next weekend's rainstorm yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 You do this to yourself with every event. You need to be realistic if you want to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ci+++! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Too bad, it could have been a nice storm...very slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 47 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I admit I was hoping instead of using my brain on this one, while I still saw out to sea, I was hoping for a trend northwest, this winter is not happening that way. Onto the football game today and then next weekend's rainstorm yeah. James, you want so badly to see snow but you have to be realistic or like someone said no one takes your posts seriously. Snow seems to be a deep passion for you and it was for me. I have told this story on the boards many times. Living in Boston and being on the wrong side of the coastal front time after time inspired me to one day move north. Alex did the same thing. It took 10 years of planning. Finding the right spot, high and far enough north to get the goods, good CAD but close enough to Rt 93 to get down to Boston quickly. Bought the fixer upper in 1989, worked on it on weekends and in 2001 when I was finally able to sell my business we moved up here. Never looked back. Follow your passion and try to find a way. Then your posts will be about how much you get in each storm rather than wishcasting for winter. Good Luck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ci+++! I can see the line of cirrus across the south horizon from up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now