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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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Just now, calculus1 said:

This panel shows the furthest reach of the freezing precipitation types of the most recent Euro run:

xPbKVls.png

It is already wrong .... we have been getting sleet and flurries on and off this morning. Upper levels are colder than what that map is showing. Maybe the model expects major warming before the bulk of the precip moves in.

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1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It is already wrong .... we have been getting sleet and flurries on and off this morning. Upper levels are colder than what that map is showing. Maybe the model expects major warming before the bulk of the precip moves in.

Yeah, I wasn't looking at panels for this afternoon's novelty flakes and pellets.  I was looking at the panels once the bulk of the precipitation arrives.

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RAH:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

What has changed: The chance of substantial snow in the forecast 
area continues to decrease, while the ice accumulation predictions 
remain largely the same, albeit with some spatial tweaks. Forsyth 
and NW Person county should see the greatest totals of wintry 
accumulation, near a quarter inch of icing and under 1 inch of 
snow/sleet, and Davidson county has been added to the warning, with 
expectations of significant icing over its NW sections (although S 
sections will see little accrual). Surface temps may not get as cool 
as earlier expected, particularly over the SE Piedmont and 
Sandhills, and if this trend continues, we could see less icing in 
portions of the existing advisory area. No changes to this area at 
this time, however, as we monitor short term trends.

We're still looking at a sheared mid level trough axis stretching 
across the area with a Miller B pattern at the surface, consisting 
of a primary surface low moving into the Mid South and weakening, 
while a secondary low forms over coastal NC. A steady feed of low 
level cold dry air at the surface, from the high centered over 
Ontario, should help maintain near- or sub-freezing surface temps 
over the NW Piedmont through the night, although reduced advection 
resulting from a somewhat weak pressure pattern will eventually 
result in surface wet bulbs rising above freezing across the S and E 
toward daybreak.

Little has changed with regards to overall expectations. Areas from 
Durham to the N and W will see the main impacts of this storm, the 
most severe of which will be in the far NW Piedmont. The cold dry 
air is in place at the surface, and apart from lower stratus over 
our SE (due to moist upglide at 280-285K), the lowest 5-8k ft 
remains rather dry, especially over our NE sections. This has 
limited the ability of precip to reach the ground, despite numerous 
pockets of returns on MRMS. The heavier precip is still poised to 
spread into our NW sections after 6 pm, picking up in intensity and 
spreading E through the evening and overnight as forcing for ascent 
(including mid level DPVA within the incoming shear axis aloft and 
strengthening upper divergence associated with dual jets) 
strengthens and deepens overnight. Categorical pops will spread into 
W sections before midnight then expand over all of central NC 
overnight.

The bulk of the accumulation of wintry precip is expected to occur 
between 05z and 10z, when the windows of strongest lift and 
sufficiently cold low and mid levels are likely to coincide. Precip 
will start out as snow and sleet with a little freezing rain this 
evening over the W Piedmont, with minimal snow/sleet accumulations 
(under one inch). A switch to mostly freezing rain is expected after 
midnight as rates increase. As we approach daybreak, the arrival of 
the 850 mb warm nose and some low level warming will result in a 
changeover to mostly rain across the S and NE Piedmont, leaving 
predominantly freezing rain over the far NW. 

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Little more mention of snow in the latest forecast, at least may have some mix in? 

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Snow with possible sleet, rain and freezing rain this
evening, then sleet, a chance of freezing rain and snow after
midnight. Precipitation may be heavy at times after midnight.
Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation of
up to one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the
lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain likely. Freezing rain with sleet likely in the
morning, then sleet likely or a chance of snow or freezing rain
in the afternoon. Little or no additional snow and sleet
accumulation. Ice accumulation around a trace. Near steady
temperature in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with patchy freezing drizzle. A chance of
snow or rain or sleet or a slight chance of freezing rain in the
evening, then a slight chance of light snow after midnight.
Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Near steady temperature
in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...A slight chance of light snow in the morning. Cloudy
with patchy freezing drizzle. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. 

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Can someone tell me why Charlotte is under WWA? Is that a ‘just in case’?

the forecast doesn’t have us below freezing for the next 48hrs.

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Here in the Triad, I just don't see this being a big deal unless something happens to bring in some colder air.  Current wetbulb is 31 which is enough to cause a lot of tree damage.  But, I think we'll creep up to stay around 32 for the most part, and I think rates will be high enough that we won't get efficient freezing.  I love a good ice storm and thought this one had potential to be pretty major.  But, it seems temps are a couple of degrees above optimum level.  We'll see. 

34.9 here in Colfax.  Need about a 3 degree drop to get some decent glazing on trees, cars, etc.

TW

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38 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Can someone tell me why Charlotte is under WWA? Is that a ‘just in case’?

the forecast doesn’t have us below freezing for the next 48hrs.

They are probably just playing it safe. Canadian RDPS drops temps to 31 in overnight precip. NAM and 3KM NAM keep temps just above freezing...but they would go with an advisory for even minimal icing 

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HRRR busting on temps by 2-3F — latest runs have southern NC Piedmont/Upstate 36-37 at 1z — current temp in Shelby/Rutherford 34  

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1 hour ago, beanskip said:

HRRR busting on temps by 2-3F — latest runs have southern NC Piedmont/Upstate 36-37 at 1z — current temp in Shelby/Rutherford 34  

Lincolnton has light rain at 33 deg / 30 dewpoint 

 

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It’s 31 with freezing rain here. About .10 inch on trees, deck etc. driveway just wet

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Wow!  The overnight forecast just upped the ante on totals IMBY:

Tonight
Freezing rain. Patchy fog. Low around 30. North northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.3 to 0.5 of an inch possible.
Sunday
Rain or freezing rain before 9am, then a chance of rain. Patchy fog. High near 38. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible.

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NWS GSP evening update:

Quote
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 955 pm EST: The latest LAPS and Obs analyses of surface wet
bulb temperatures show values of 30 to 31 degrees across the vast
majority of the Warning area this evening, lending confidence to the
idea that freezing surface temperatures will persist in these
mountain/foothill/NW piedmont areas and permit significant ice
accumulations as the heavier QPF rates moves through the region
overnight. Farther south into the Advisory area, sfc wet bulbs are
running around 32 degrees, except 33 degrees in the lower piedmont.
The mesoscale models still feature some modest cooler of surface
temps overnight, so will keep the Advisory in place despite any
icing likely being more patchy in nature southeast of the I-85
corridor.

Regional composite radar shows plenty of heavier rates still
upstream of the area as upper-level jet divergence, deeper-layer
DPVA, continued isentropic lift, and steeper mid-level lapse rates
look to cross the region overnight. Established cold air damming
will maintain, or cool, surface temperatures slightly - with the
coldest values likely centered around 09Z before we see any very
slight warming around the edge of the wedge layer through the later
morning hours. The window for accumulating sleet across the northern
Blue Ridge area is dwindling, and icing from freezing rain is
expected to be the major concern overnight. Although forcing will
weaken as the 850 mb flow turns westerly on Sunday, channeled
vorticity will keep some mentionable PoPs going through the day,
with perhaps additional light ice/sleet accumulations possible
across the far northern tier. It`s likely that the
Warnings/Advisories will be able to be cancelled early, at some
point, from south to north on Sunday.

 

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From now on I think we can just immediately toss any model run that shows a storm drying out. That's no longer possible in the southeast.

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8 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

From now on I think we can just immediately toss any model run that shows a storm drying out. That's no longer possible in the southeast.

You are right. Precip just wants to over-perform, at least while we are in this El-Nino winter. This storm was a good example of that.

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