Hoosier Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Let's start to reverse the horror 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z FV3Kuchera map from PivotalSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Kuchera map from Pivotal Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk How realistic is this scenario ? I just have a hard time believing Dayton could get 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: How realistic is this scenario ? I just have a hard time believing Dayton could get 10". I think the amounts are not set in stone but an I-70 storm track with a wide swath of snow seems to be on the table. There very likely could be some jackpots of 10+ inches but narrowing those down are nearly impossible. Jackpots are usually nowcasts or a little before the event forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 How realistic is this scenario ? I just have a hard time believing Dayton could get 10".6"+ amounts are realistic. The moisture plume this system will have to tap into is pretty impressive for a snow system. Euro has been showing a brosd area of 0.6-0.7"+ precipitable waters, and usually 0.5" or 0.6" pwat or more are good for heavy snow combined with other favorable factors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Let's start to reverse the horror Comparing November and December departure from normal snowfall maps would be an artistic masterpiece of color contrast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 NAM is lol worthy across north central and northeast IL. Really hitting the dry air problems really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Those warm 850's need to stop nudging North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Congrats Jhamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Congrats Jhamps. I think he's in Texas now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there. They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there. They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well. Downtown Chicago and northern Indiana are probably at less than that. ORD gives us a bad name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there. They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well. Des Moines is another city who has largely missed out by short distances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Not much better out this way 7.3" on the year and only 0.6" since Dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 0z gfs really brought the accumulation further north but overall is light on qpf compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs really brought the accumulation further north but overall is light on qpf compared to other models Was just about to comment on that. I do wonder if the higher totals (talking in the main snow area, not on the edge) may be more realistic given what has been mentioned with moisture availability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Was just about to comment on that. I do wonder if the higher totals (talking in the main snow area, not on the edge) may be more realistic given what has been mentioned with moisture availability. This system has good access to the Gulf though and Euro/Nam have shown this with seasonal high qpf and pwat values. But wondering if the major dry air coming from that arctic high is really going to impact totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z GEM came in juiced again big jackpot run for STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The FV3 is once again far more amped in terms of moisture than the GFS. St. Louis cashes in once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 There's no such thing as a lock from this distance, but if I lived near the STL area I'd be feeling pretty good about things. Pretty much all guidance continually has that area in a very favorable location to pick up sig snows. As for that northern cutoff, we'll definitely have to keep an eye on that. There's been some nasty northern cutoffs on systems the past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Where can you view GEM? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011000&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Central Illinois said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011000&fh=6 One second too late. Lol. Just found it. I actually just deleted my comment. Lol. But thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The FV3 is once again far more amped in terms of moisture than the GFS. St. Louis cashes in once again. Actually backed off on the northern edge, but that’s to be expected as models consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Actually backed off on the northern edge, but that’s to be expected as models consolidate.Pretty close (just slightly less) to 18z run in heart of metro but as you said a razor sharp northern edge. I'd take a couple inches and run up here. Just don't want to be north of that northern edge. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z UK is pretty juicy. 0.4" up to I-80 in north-central IL. Over 1" of precip for STL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 New Euro drops over a foot from STL and points west towards Columbia MO. Warning criteria snows as far north as southeast Iowa, and Peoria/Bloomington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro drops over a foot from STL and points west towards Columbia MO. Warning criteria snows as far north as southeast Iowa, and Peoria/Bloomington. Yea this is likely going to be quite an event for STL. Assuming we will see watches issued tonight. I'm not overly confident on warning criteria this north yet but my early guess here is 3-5in with locally higher possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Is there a kuchera snow map for Euro? For some reason I can only see a 10:1 map on weathermodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea this is likely going to be quite an event for STL. Assuming we will see watches issued tonight. I'm not overly confident on warning criteria this north yet but my early guess here is 3-5in with locally higher possible Yeah you guys are looking pretty good down there. Looks like you'll be safe from the sharp northern cutoff. I'm guessing you will be included in the winter storm watches that will be issued in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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