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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77

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17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

How realistic is this scenario ? I just have a hard time believing Dayton could get 10".

I think the amounts are not set in stone but an I-70 storm track with a wide swath of snow seems to be on the table.  There very likely could be some jackpots of 10+ inches but narrowing those down are nearly impossible.  Jackpots are usually nowcasts or a little before the event forecasts.  

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How realistic is this scenario ? I just have a hard time believing Dayton could get 10".

6"+ amounts are realistic. The moisture plume this system will have to tap into is pretty impressive for a snow system. Euro has been showing a brosd area of 0.6-0.7"+ precipitable waters, and usually 0.5" or 0.6" pwat or more are good for heavy snow combined with other favorable factors.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there.  They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well.  

Downtown Chicago and northern Indiana are probably at less than that. ORD gives us a bad name.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there.  They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well.  

Des Moines is another city who has largely missed out by short distances 

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs really brought the accumulation further north but overall is light on qpf compared to other models

Was just about to comment on that.  I do wonder if the higher totals (talking in the main snow area, not on the edge) may be more realistic given what has been mentioned with moisture availability.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Was just about to comment on that.  I do wonder if the higher totals (talking in the main snow area, not on the edge) may be more realistic given what has been mentioned with moisture availability.

This system has good access to the Gulf though and Euro/Nam have shown this with seasonal high qpf and pwat values. But wondering if the major dry air coming from that arctic high is really going to impact totals

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There's no such thing as a lock from this distance, but if I lived near the STL area I'd be feeling pretty good about things.  Pretty much all guidance continually has that area in a very favorable location to pick up sig snows.  

As for that northern cutoff, we'll definitely have to keep an eye on that.  There's been some nasty northern cutoffs on systems the past few years.  

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Actually backed off on the northern edge, but that’s to be expected as models consolidate.
Pretty close (just slightly less) to 18z run in heart of metro but as you said a razor sharp northern edge. I'd take a couple inches and run up here. Just don't want to be north of that northern edge.

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro drops over a foot from STL and points west towards Columbia MO.  Warning criteria snows as far north as southeast Iowa, and Peoria/Bloomington.  

Yea this is likely going to be quite an event for STL. Assuming we will see watches issued tonight. I'm not overly confident on warning criteria this north yet but my early guess here is 3-5in with locally higher possible 

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8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea this is likely going to be quite an event for STL. Assuming we will see watches issued tonight. I'm not overly confident on warning criteria this north yet but my early guess here is 3-5in with locally higher possible 

Yeah you guys are looking pretty good down there.  Looks like you'll be safe from the sharp northern cutoff.  I'm guessing you will be included in the winter storm watches that will be issued in a few hours.

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