January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[Snow88]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

8 ball or ouiji board ? And I will use whatever I want and other METS are using what I am.

He's trying to help you. No need to get mad lol

[Snow88]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I agree without blocking and the 50/50 low don't expect any SECS or MECS we will just continue with the same pattern...…..Its good just inland and in the middle of the country though.

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

 

The warming is spreading from 60 E towards 80 E , and correlated to Jan 5- 11 RIMM plots in p8.

 

So I expect that we get to p8 in early FEB.

 

 

 

 

[Snow88]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I never get mad - I don't need anyones help - anyways to also post some other weather related info - JB in his morning video is going with the MJO graphic I displayed and thinks its going through the COD into phase 2

People use different mjo plots

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

Sure you can get snow in bad patterns, but it depends on what kind of snow you are looking for.  You can get a short duration SWFE that lasts like 6-8 hours and gives 6-8 inches and exits just before changing to rain or changes to sleet at the end, or you can get a fast moving Miller B that drops snow for a few hours and then changes to rain or mixed precip (or vice versa.)

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

But you just said the NAO is staying positive …???

I think he means AO is going to tank so we will have blocking just not NAO blocking lol.

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

[LibertyBell]

1993-94 and 2012-13 are the winters to be looking at, both featured decent late season patterns even though all the connectors weren't lined up.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.  Hopefully it lasts for a few to several weeks.

Both 1993-94 and 2012-13 delivered in February and March.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.

 

I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative....

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want to see the VP anomalies consolidate near the Date Line for it to look like a traditional February El Niño. The MJO passing through 6-7 is stretching the forcing west toward Indonesia to start February. The GFS is made public. But it’s hard to find the Euro which is best with MJO and tropical forcing in general. 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative....

 

The EPS / GEFS are  - 3  to- 4 SD 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

Hi.

Where can I harvest the GEFS and EPS Tels?

I can only find the below.

[Brian5671]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The EPS / GEFS are  - 3  to- 4 SD 

good to see the EPS there-I could care less what the GEFS says...LOL

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hi.

Where can I harvest the GEFS and EPS Tels?

I can only find the below.

 

 

[TriPol]

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

[Snow88]

17 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

Ncep tellies

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

In the last 10-15 years we have several times.  If you go back before that just about never.  The Pacific was so favorable since 2000 the Atlantic often didn’t matter.  I’m not sure of any 12 inch plus events prior to 2000 that occurred with a +NAO outside of 2/11/94

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

 

Thanks

[TriPol]

Whoa. Why is there a ground stop at LaGuardia?

[BlizzardNYC]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Whoa. Why is there a ground stop at LaGuardia?

Government shutdown, a lot of air traffic controllers called out sick

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Latest

 

NAO stays positive

PNA rises

AO tanks 

Potentially quite promising. A number of February cases with strong-severe AO blocking have been snowy.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Potentially quite promising. A number of February cases with strong-severe AO blocking have been snowy.

And the NAO will go negative come February 1, Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

February 12-13, 2014 is one such case.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 12-13, 2014 is one such case.

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

You could make the case for general climatology. But obviously there are a million factors that lead to the rain snow line setup. 

[Sn0waddict]

Euro actually is rather interesting..  the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol

[Snow88]

10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro actually is rather interesting..  the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol

Few inches for D.C. 

Barely anything except  light snow for NYC and Boston .

[Sn0waddict]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Few inches for D.C. 

Barely anything except  light snow for NYC and Boston .

Much better than what all the other models are showing. Hr 120 was close to something big for us