• Member Statistics

    15,614
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Tommy46
    Newest Member
    Tommy46
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

8 ball or ouiji board ? And I will use whatever I want and other METS are using what I am.

He's trying to help you. No need to get mad lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NEG NAO said:

I agree without blocking and the 50/50 low don't expect any SECS or MECS we will just continue with the same pattern...…..Its good just inland and in the middle of the country though.

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NEG NAO said:

I never get mad - I don't need anyones help - anyways to also post some other weather related info - JB in his morning video is going with the MJO graphic I displayed and thinks its going through the COD into phase 2

People use different mjo plots

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

Sure you can get snow in bad patterns, but it depends on what kind of snow you are looking for.  You can get a short duration SWFE that lasts like 6-8 hours and gives 6-8 inches and exits just before changing to rain or changes to sleet at the end, or you can get a fast moving Miller B that drops snow for a few hours and then changes to rain or mixed precip (or vice versa.)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.  Hopefully it lasts for a few to several weeks.

Both 1993-94 and 2012-13 delivered in February and March.

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, LibertyBell said:

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.

 

I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want to see the VP anomalies consolidate near the Date Line for it to look like a traditional February El Niño. The MJO passing through 6-7 is stretching the forcing west toward Indonesia to start February. The GFS is made public. But it’s hard to find the Euro which is best with MJO and tropical forcing in general. 

BC61A80A-02C0-4D37-A24F-C00EA82AB864.thumb.png.907e64d5a60d74e245602043e7fb26c4.png

488A826C-22E3-4C6B-8BA3-C57E6A7638E3.png.00bae2ecb956d54583d942fea0641b97.png

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif.1157586751f02e327e2b8234bcaf3324.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative....

 

The EPS / GEFS are  - 3  to- 4 SD 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

Hi.

Where can I harvest the GEFS and EPS Tels?

I can only find the below.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.0f7f16c6c82986874378609903054be0.gifpna.sprd2.thumb.gif.9344ca60c443d06a3c26f169cef6d266.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The EPS / GEFS are  - 3  to- 4 SD 

good to see the EPS there-I could care less what the GEFS says...LOL

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

Ncep tellies

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

In the last 10-15 years we have several times.  If you go back before that just about never.  The Pacific was so favorable since 2000 the Atlantic often didn’t matter.  I’m not sure of any 12 inch plus events prior to 2000 that occurred with a +NAO outside of 2/11/94

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Latest

 

NAO stays positive

PNA rises

AO tanks 

Potentially quite promising. A number of February cases with strong-severe AO blocking have been snowy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 12-13, 2014 is one such case.

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

You could make the case for general climatology. But obviously there are a million factors that lead to the rain snow line setup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro actually is rather interesting..  the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro actually is rather interesting..  the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol

Few inches for D.C. 

Barely anything except  light snow for NYC and Boston .

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Few inches for D.C. 

Barely anything except  light snow for NYC and Boston .

Much better than what all the other models are showing. Hr 120 was close to something big for us

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.