CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 0.0° Now I have to beat last weeks -1.8°. I'd guess that's a lock. Maybe Feb 2016's -11.2°? Three years since double digit sub zero .If not tonight, tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 27 minutes ago, nycwinter said: does nyc has a shot of reaching zero tonight? With this wind direction and the wind dropping off later unlikely. The snow cover to the west may help somewhat but I would say 2-3 is the lowest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 -4 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Current temp is 3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster15 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 -1 here in Sloatsburg in Rockland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Down another degree. Current temp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: With this wind direction and the wind dropping off later unlikely. The snow cover to the west may help somewhat but I would say 2-3 is the lowest This isn't as extreme as the 1985 Arctic shot, that was my most memorable one. Chicago got colder in that one too (-27) and Atlanta reached (-8)! The 80s were much colder in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 12:04 PM, SnowGoose69 said: In the last few weeks models are quickly losing the El Niño for next winter. Some of the BOM members evidently now show a La Niña. That would really suck. Just a month ago I was fairly confident we would at worst be neutral next winter no it wont, La Ninas are far more exciting. And la ninas after el ninos can be exceptional. After this monstrosity, many of us would welcome a cold La Nina December and if the la nina after el nino analogs prove true, it could be an EXCELLENT winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Negative 8 in HL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 9:26 PM, NittanyWx said: And for the record, every single meteorologist is going to have misses in a winter. I personally had a terrible November. But I do think this winter had way too many people hashing out ideas that they couldn't fully explain or only had a half understanding of. And I noticed the always cold/snow crowd again got run over because of this (JB, DiMartino, etc.). Think the next couple of weeks turn stormy, but the window for an east coast system that can deliver meaningful snow is fairly tight. Some things working for the east coast are a decent supply of cold air in Canada and an active storm track. Think you can squeeze something out of it if we can get a true phase 8 in Feb with some +PNA help. But, P1 Feb can actually be hostile on the PNA for us and make inland runners more likely. I never make LR predictions because I think no matter how well intentioned they are, the science just isn't there yet. But if you noticed over the past few months I questioned the ones who do and my questions were specific and based on my worries: 1) I asked Don if there was a chance we'd remember this winter more for its Arctic outbreaks than any one snow event. 2) I asked Chris if he was nervous that we hadn't seen a single benchmark track in the fall or early winter. Even our one snowstorm was a hugger and changed over. I asked those because of the way I saw the pattern evolving in the early part of the season, something that I see as being very stable and difficult to dislodge. And that is, cold/dry Arctic outbreaks during which suppressive storms can happen interrupted by cutting/hugging storms. As soon as I saw that we were getting these kinds of storm tracks I immediately got worried- and this was way back in November and December. In spite of any pattern change that might happen, dislodging these tracks is VERY difficult. Whether it's the unusually warm West Pac or the non-neg NAO, this same kind of scenario became the staple of the 80s. While the 80s were several degrees colder, the storm tracks were very similar to what we've had this year. You need a really strong el nino like we had in 1982-83 to change things up. A piddly one like we've had this year cant dislodge this pattern. I still think we can get a turnaround, but it will be like 2012-13 if it does happen not 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 21 hours ago, bluewave said: It was the hybrid nature of the pattern that was noteworthy. The pattern was essentially an overlapping El Niño and La Niña pattern. Notice the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii along with stronger PAC Jet. More of an El Niño +PNA in Canada. It may have been the inteference between the two patterns that caused such low Dec-Jan snowfall here. We missed a few good snowstorms due to the northern stream suppressing the weaker southern stream. We could have a had a better shot at snow if one of those features was able to dominate. Also notice that there was actually decent blocking in the North Atlantic. But there is only so much we can do with such a poor Pacific. Good point, wasn't 2012-13 also a hybrid pattern because the previous year was a la nina and we were transitioning to el nino? La ninas after el ninos are much better than el ninos after la nina lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 21 hours ago, jfklganyc said: After all that...a normal January temp wise. Haha. Would have thought the world was ending if you read through this monthly thread. Perspective! temperatures dont matter much for snowfall unless they are extreme. the 80s were extremely cold and had very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 20 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it looks like NYC won’t be too far from the current 32.6 average. The odd part is the previous 15 years since 1950 with a monthly January low under 5 degrees averaged 27.4 degrees. The only other year to even reach freezing was 1997 at 32.1. and looks like we'll have two separate Arctic shots with temps below 5 degrees- remember 1993-94 when we had two separate Arctic shots with temps at or below 0? Is this the first time since then that we've had two separate Arctic shots get us under 5 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Amazing update from Buffalo... would be amazing to be there! S+ 0° 0.06mi vis Gusting to 35 with a -23° windchill. the best one was 0 degrees and 0 visibility lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 hours ago, stockmanjr said: Seeing Snow Squall Warnings in MD is this a new product or just rarely used? we had them in NYC and Long Island too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In the wake of an Arctic front that brought a brief period of whiteout conditions to much of the region, bitterly cold air has sent the mercury tumbling into the single digits in a growing part of the area. At 9 pm, the temperature in Central Park was just 9°. Earlier today, Chicago had a low temperature of -23°. That was that city's coldest reading sinc January 20, 1985 when the temperature fell to -27°. The high temperature was an icy -10°. That is only the fourth time on record that Chicago had a high temperature of -10° or lower. The SOI was +3.02 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case. Afterward, it will likely return to negative values. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.503. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.230. On January 29, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.577 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen fairly sharply from the January 28-adjusted figure of 1.985. The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 1-4 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 have increased somewhat in recent days. Nevertheless, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude into at least the first week of February. For the month as a whole, the MJO will likely be at a high amplitude (1.000 or above) for a considerable part of February. The MJO will likely remain at a predominantly high amplitude during February. Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF, GFS, and EPS forecast high temperatures in the 50s during the February 3-5 period in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Farther south, parts of the Middle Atlantic region could experience a high temperature of 60° or above. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There is a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period. Good Thursday morning all, For the record... Chicago yesterday, experienced its 2nd coldest day in its 145+ years of recorded history... average T -16.5F The coldest day was 12/24/83 avg -18F. For what its worth, I was stationed at NWS MKE back in the 1980's severe cold snaps. Back then, if your car was not garaged in these -20sF outbreaks, there was a good chance it would NOT start because of the oil congealing, or battery failure. 3F/31 at 5A in NYC. ECMWF 2m temps have overall been better than the GFS 2m T in well mixed environments, both CHI and NYC (though I could see a failure at CHI this morning, still tbd). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Last day of Jan. is averaging 9degs., or 24degs., BN. Month to date is +0.9[33.3]. Should end Jan. at +0.1[32.5]. All 8 days are averaging 34degs., or just Normal. EURO is 0" of Snow for next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on 6" by the 16th. RIP to both for now. +3.5* here at 6am. +3.3* here at 7am. +4.8* here at 8am. +6.2* here at 9am. +7.7* here at 10am +9.8* here at 11am. 11.7* here at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Thursday morning all, For the record... Chicago yesterday, experienced its 2nd coldest day in its 145+ years of recorded history... average T -16.5F The coldest day was 12/24/83 avg -18F. For what its worth, I was stationed at NWS MKE back in the 1980's severe cold snaps. Back then, if your car was not garaged in these -20sF outbreaks, there was a good chance it would NOT start because of the oil congealing, or battery failure. 3F/31 at 5A in NYC. ECMWF 2m temps have overall been better than the GFS 2m T in well mixed environments, both CHI and NYC (though I could see a failure at CHI this morning, still tbd). Walt, I thought Jan 1985 was colder? Chicago reached -27 for their low, and that was our best NYC Arctic outbreak that I can remember and also the coldest presidential inauguration day. the 1980s were amazing for cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 the Jan 1985 Arctic outbreak was so extreme that here on Long Island, moisture condensed on the INSIDE of my windows as ice- it was a beautiful feathery kind of ice too. The only other time I've seen that was in the extreme Jan 1994 outbreak. Haven't seen it since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Last day of Jan. is averaging 9degs., or 24degs., BN. Month to date is +0.9[33.3]. Should end Jan. at +0.1[32.5]. All 8 days are averaging 34degs., or just Normal. EURO is 0" of Snow for next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on 6" by the 16th. RIP to both for now. Yes on EC op for the next 10 days. Of interest, and while it may be a tad cold... potential substantial ice event nePA/nw NJ newd up I84 to MA 6th-7th, a climatologically very favorable period for winter storms in the Boston area. So, no snow, ... but winter ice hazard may be of interest for planners 6th-7th FV3 I think is in that direction as well and supposedly FV3 already an advantage in testing, vs GFS in ptype. I have no faith FV3, timing vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Walt, I thought Jan 1985 was colder? Chicago reached -27 for their low, and that was our best NYC Arctic outbreak that I can remember and also the coldest presidential inauguration day. the 1980s were amazing for cold! The min yes as you remember, the mean no. Here is an attachment. Chicago definitely not making -27 this morning... cold core departed and EC appears terrible on its 2m there at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2° Couldn't get to 0° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 degree here In brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: The min yes as you remember, the mean no. Here is an attachment. Chicago definitely not making -27 this morning... cold core departed and EC appears terrible on its 2m there at this time. Maybe the colder air moving further east increases the chances of NYC getting to negative numbers this morning! What I remember about Jan 1985 is that it hit -2 in NYC and it was the last time we had a high in the single digits. Atlanta got down to -8 and it was -18 in the DC area! There were several zero or below Arctic shots here in the early to mid 80s- Christmas 1980, Jan 1982, Jan 1985 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 2° Couldn't get to 0° temp will keep dropping through 8 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 here. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Temps dropped like a rock overnight Wind chill of -17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Walt, I thought Jan 1985 was colder? Chicago reached -27 for their low, and that was our best NYC Arctic outbreak that I can remember and also the coldest presidential inauguration day. the 1980s were amazing for cold! Walt referred to the mean temperature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Very impressive to have 2 single digit lows in NYC in the same winter. Doesn't happen too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I hate the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now