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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Then there was a 50+ degree rainstorm that washed all that snow off the ice, clogging street drains and causing flooding. It was a horrific period, and no one was ready for it.

I would love to get back to back storms like Feb 94 but yeah don't need all the ice

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I would love to get back to back storms like Feb 94 but yeah don't need all the ice

For sure, there is nothing redeeming about ice storms. They are evil. Not fun to sit through, dangerous to go out in, and cause power outages that can result in basement floods. I like snow, but I'll take a snowless winter in the 40' and 50's to avoid an ice storm. I am hoping the guidance changes over the week. Right now, things just don't seem to be swinging our way with snowstorms. 

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6 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Think this is the storm you're talking about. Trying to dig up surface obs but Plymouth State & Iowa State don't go back far enough.

010806.png.gif

Yeah that’s it.  It started as snow/sleet Thursday evening and was expected to go to rain by late night or Friday morning at worst.  All the 00Z runs came in much colder though and by 4am the NWS pretty much went all frozen for the entire area’s for the duration of the event.  It was a good call because outside of 12am-2am Saturday morning where parts of LI briefly got to 33 it never went above 32 anywhere 

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS and GEM both horrid through day 10 make it stop need ensembles and a better euro soon or it's life support time.

 

 

Add GFS para to that list it cuts into Montréal area! Mostly rain just maybe a dusting at the back end and we all know that never really works out.

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Add GfS para to that list it cuts into Montréal area! All rain

Yeah para is usually significantly different then it's old sibling not today

 

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Did wake up late and saw that I had received a coating here on Staten Island, my street was covered and of course car tops were too. All gone now even without full sunshine

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2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I forget what year that was? I moved to my current location in summer 93', so it was after that.

It may have been 2007.

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3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Worst I’ve ever seen around here was 1994. Temperature around 25 degrees with heavy rain. Everything was coated with around an inch of ice afterwards. The ice stayed for several days as temps were in the teens by day and single digits at night.

We had a severe ice storm on LI in January 1978.  I have pictures of trees and shrubs in my yard encased in 1-2” of ice.  The pictures are amazing.  I could upload them but because of the file size restrictions on this board I am unable to do so.

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

It literally says 2m temperatures on the top. Ridging from the North Pole to just N of Alaska through the extended period has already and will continue to deliver frigid air into North America. Widespread -30s in place over the NW Territories this morning. 

It shows much warmer for 12Z on Jan 28th on Pivotal Weather here:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019011312&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Is this a model difference issue or am I missing something important?

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Oddly enough the Canadian seems to be seeing an ugly SE ridge trying to form days 8-10.  You have to wonder if the models are starting to pick up on that MJO rearing it’s head again.  The Euro has gotten somewhat stale on the cold too the last few runs 

The GFS and CMC both came in stronger today with the MJO 4-5. They now have the fastest MJO 8 to 4-5 in January on record. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Areas just north of 95 get hammered!

Let's hope this turns into all rain. My daughter has a bus trip to DC Friday and overnight Sat. People don't take ice seriously enough and there will be problems.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Let's hope this turns into all rain. My daughter has a bus trip to DC Friday and overnight Sat. People don't take ice seriously enough and there will be problems.

Yeah, hopefully the Euro is wrong here. None of the other guidance like GFS, UK,and  CMC have an ice storm like that. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, hopefully the Euro is wrong here. None of the other guidance like GFS, UK, CMC have an ice storm like that. 

Seeing the Euro of all models show that is concerning. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, hopefully the Euro is wrong here. None of the other guidance like GFS, UK, CMC have an ice storm like that. 

I’d take the euro solution. It’s mostly snow just north of Manhattan. 

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54 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Is this a model difference issue or am I missing something important?

Yes, the FV3 is the new version of the GFS; the pivotalwx link is for the current operational version. They are entirely different models.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Seeing the Euro of all models show that is concerning. 

I won’t get concerned until I see the Euro hold that solution within it’s good range starting at 120 hrs out. It’s curently the Euro vs GFS,UKMET, CMC, and ICON. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I won’t get concerned until I see the Euro hold that solution within it’s good range starting at 120 hrs out. It’s curently the Euro vs GFS,UKMET, CMC, and ICON. 

Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting 

nope. all the ensembles favor a colder storm than the GFS and GEM ops.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yes, the FV3 is the new version of the GFS; the pivotalwx link is for the current operational version. They are entirely different models.

Thank you for putting this right.

The older Pivotal Weather modeling only showed large negative numbers for the anomalies, so if the newer model verifies, we are looking at 40*F negative anomalies in late January. Impressive!

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