tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Tropic thunder? Does Ben stiller show up in that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nws in buffalo has 100 percent chance of snow heavy at times sat and sunday. Never seen that 4 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Way out there but there is a major LES event on W/SW flow from the 27th to 31st on both GFS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: With that kind of Arctic air impinging upon the system from its Northwest, I'd think the system would somehow try to escape east or ENE, no? Unless we get a full phase, then all bets are off as we taint but for how long? Lots of difficult questions to answer now as we are still like few said four days away so one run at a time! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah, I guess my fear is that a deeper initial low will be a touch slower and perhaps better aligned for a full phase. In that scenario I think it moves more north northeast as it pushes the warm sector and baroclinic zone further north. It certainly is running into a formidable arctic high so we have that going for us. The slightly strung out partial phase is probably a safer bet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If the Ukie, Tropic Thunder, JMA and ICON models score a coup with this system, as is being suggested/wishcasted elsewhere, I think we will all go insane. It’s possible. ICON is still a good hit. They just don’t phase as well. I don’t like them but we gotta consider that possibility. It’s silly really, just a few hours ago we were nervous about taint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, I guess my fear is that a deeper initial low will be a touch slower and perhaps better aligned for a full phase. In that scenario I think it moves more north northeast as it pushes the warm sector and baroclinic zone further north. It certainly is running into a formidable arctic high so we have that going for us. The slightly strung out partial phase is probably a safer bet though. Hope it creates that long line of WA precip that starts early and gives a nice front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Goofus looks perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Goofus looks perfect That 18z run has a mix well into the fingerlake and we know that the mix line usually exceeds the models by 25 miles or so. Getting a little too close for comfort IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That 18z run has a mix well into the fingerlake and we know that the mix line usually exceeds the models by 25 miles or so. Getting a little too close for comfort IMO. Yeah with ratios the highest totals are actually from BUF to YYZ this run. SE of here lower ratios and mixing takes place. The NW trend can stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Icon is on the south Eastern side of guidance but definitely no ukmet, that's a model totally on it's own.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It’s fine. Are we seriously going to sweat every tick north and south? As long as we stay bouncing around in the general viscinity of PA- WVa we are looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Here is the ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro has 1.5" LE in 12 hours just west of the mix line, I'll take my chances lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s fine. Are we seriously going to sweat every tick north and south? As long as we stay bouncing around in the general viscinity of PA- WVa we are looking good. Yes. It's what we do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The agreement between operational model and ensemble guidance continues to be very high, suggesting a large scale storm system with significant winter weather impacts for western and north central New York this weekend. Low pressure over the southern Plains Saturday is expected to gather strength as it tracks northeast toward the mid-Atlantic region Sunday. This system will have ample moisture and excellent baroclinicity to work with as a strong area of arctic high pressure nudges into the North-Central US. The current forecast track of the low places our region well within the cold side of the system. This will keep the entire synoptic portion of the storm as all snow and places the local area in a good location for significant snowfall amounts and associated impacts. The event looks to get under way during the day Saturday as leading edge of snow reaches western New York, with the event likely peaking Saturday night into early Sunday. As the low moves its way into New England during the day Sunday and into Sunday night, it will pull away the deeper synoptic moisture with it, however on the back side the coldest air of this winter season will be drawn down into the region and likely bring lake enhanced/effect snows to the region. This could bring significant additional snowfall totals, especially to areas south and southeast of the lakes, including the Rochester metro area. The lake response could easily last through early next week. Although this system is still a few days out, careful attention needs to be made to later forecasts as there will likely significant winter weather impacts for the region including heavy snowfall, bitter wind chills and strong gusty winds creating blowing and drifting snow creating difficult if not impossible travel conditions in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It's been a while since we've since this kind of forecast.. Thursday Night Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -7. Chance of precipitation is 60%. M.L.King Day A chance of snow showers. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 10. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I like the mention of Rochester metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 As a quick side note, anyone looking at what our storm is doing when it hits Cali? That is some insane shit right there. This peak south of Tahoe is forecasting 85-113 inches over a 3 day period. Daaaamnnnnn This Afternoon Snow. Steady temperature around 22. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Temperature rising to around 27 by 5am. Windy, with a southwest wind 28 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 31. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 31 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Windy, with a south southwest wind 39 to 44 mph increasing to 45 to 50 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 31 to 37 inches possible. Thursday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Windy, with a southwest wind around 47 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 15. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 85-113". Now that's a snowstorm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm trying to imagine if the Euro / Kuchera totals (40") materialized for Syracuse area followed by LES for a couple days. The mind boggles. Too bad it's not Thurs or Friday... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 In the meantime we have our warmup act on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'm trying to imagine if the Euro / Kuchera totals (40") materialized for Syracuse area followed by LES for a couple days. The mind boggles. Too bad it's not Thurs or Friday... Same here. That would be incredible. Reading back a few posts, I think the last time Onondaga County had a Blizzard Warning was March 93. Oswego County got upgraded either last year or the year before after initially having a Winter Storm Warning. A few more jumps northwest and we taint on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 i can smell the taint from here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It is short lived but models starting to back winds out of the west ahead of another northern stream disturbance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm all for this lol Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants to legalize sports betting in New York New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants 2019 to be the year legal sports betting comes to his state. "Let's authorize sports betting in the upstate casinos," Cuomo said Tuesday early in his State of the State address. "It's here. It's a reality, and it will generate activity in those casinos." New York passed a 2013 law that authorized four upstate casinos -- Del Lago Resort, Tioga Downs, Rivers (Schenectady) and Resorts World Catskills -- to offer in-person sports betting, if permitted by federal law. In the months after the Supreme Court ruling, the New York State Gaming Commission said it was creating sports betting regulations, but nothing has surfaced. Cuomo did not offer any additional details regarding his plan for sports betting. New York Assemblyman J. Gary Pretlow has said that he plans to introduce new sports betting legislation, potentially including an online element, this year, and believes that it is "90 percent" likely that sports betting would be approved during the 2019 legislative session. An analysis by research firm Eilers and Krejcik Gaming projected that legal, land-based sports betting in New York could generate $532 million in annual gross gaming revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: i can smell the taint from here lol I could see the taint if I look down Oneida Lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 In all seriousness I met Mario when I was a kid in NYC. My grandmother was cousins with his wife Matilda, kinda like extended family lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Can we bet on snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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