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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

That avatar is a sight for sore eyes!  Jump on in, the water is perfect!

Hey Delta!  Love the analog you posted earlier....and yeah....we need to watch for mixing issues....would be a close call if the models, at this point, are off by 30-50 miles in the track.  This may be the case where we DON'T want the southern stream to amp up anymore.  There will be plenty of theta-e out in front....(18 hrs. of mod. snow beats front end>6 hrs. mixing>backend deformation...)

Impressed with the baroclinicity as modeled with this upcoming event (and even moreso, as depicted by some models down the road for potential storms)….load the moisture, lift it like a mofo, then let the mid level centers do their magic!!! :)

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? 

 

Just now, DeltaT13 said:

Thursday PM AFD is my guess.  

If the model consensus holds serve, then I'm in agreement with Delta.  And I'd venture that some portion of our region has a 20-30 percent chance of receiving the holy grail of a Blizzard Watch.

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6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Mike Cejka from WIVB here in Buf gave his earliest thoughts...he said 12" to 18" metro north and 18" to 24" south over the higher terrain...he stated these were on the "lower side" as some model ( guessing the Euro) is much greater!!! Can we just fast forward to thursday already!!!

I think the TV mets should be quite wary of talking totals this early...I would be, at least.

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Probably true but the cat's out of the bag early on this one, everywhere.  I wouldnt tqlk totals till Thursday. Just in case.

I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such. 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such. 

That's a good point. Someone posted here yesterday about that...flying out of KBUF Sunday IIRC.  If you really have to travel I'd look at moving that up or back a day.. 

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