vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, WNash said: Maybe after the Thursday model runs that incorporate better sampling? If this goes down the toilet I don't want to be reminded by a thread that will stay on page one of the Upstate NY/PA subforum for two years. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Probally starts at 15 to 1 ends as 25 to 1. Average 20 to 1 ratios Was just doing back of the envelop math on Euro with Kuchera on SYR clown map totals. 16" snow at 10:1 is 1.6" liquid. To get 40" you need a 25:1 ratio. I could see storm ending as that but not the bulk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The thing i like is the ensambles are tightly clustered. Not one way nw and one way south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: The thing i like is the ensambles are tightly clustered. Not one way nw and one way south east. Agree. Overall there is unusually good model alignment this far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Actually euro gives syr over 2 inches so 20 to 1 is ratio it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gives roc 1.8 or so. So 18 at 10 to 1 36 at 20 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The last 4 runs of the Euro have all dropped 1mb with each run during the development stage near Missouri. These runs are also a little more amped. I'm nervous it just keeps ticking NW. The southern Tier towards Bing is already getting into a mixed precip scenario with a setup like that. With that kind of Arctic air impinging upon the system from its Northwest, I'd think the system would somehow try to escape east or ENE, no? Unless we get a full phase, then all bets are off as we taint but for how long? Lots of difficult questions to answer now as we are still like few said four days away so one run at a time!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I think a good conservative amount from this far out to be telling the public is a nice foot 4 totals I would not be telling the public 18 to 24 in 5 days out from the beginning of an event no way no how but that's just meSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: I think a good conservative amount from this far out to be telling the public is a nice foot 4 totals I would not be telling the public 18 to 24 in 5 days out from the beginning of an event no way no how but that's just me Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk At least until the energy is sampled on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Whatever station whoever posted that from the Met on that station has grapefruits for balls, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 My guess is the ensambles are showing maybe some mixing in central ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That's nuts from 4.5 days out, wow! Sexy for sure!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 My guess is the ensambles are showing maybe some mixing in central ny I'd bet my life at least a few areSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Listen man if we taint for even a few hours in the heart of the storm totals will still be ridiculous so I wouldn't really worry about tainting all that much, seriously!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Particularly east of syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Greart AFD out of BUF: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Major Winter Storm Possible This Weekend... There continues to be fairly strong consensus between the operational GFS and ECMWF...along with many of the GEFS medium range ensemble members...that a MAJOR storm system will track from the southern plains to the Mid Atlantic region during the course of this weekend. This impactful southern stream storm system is likely to produce a plowable snowfall over our forecast area...with the risk for over a foot of snow for large areas. As usual...this will hinge on the exact path that the storm will take...so confidence is not yet high enough for a winter storm watch. This concern will remain highlighted though in the HWO product. Breaking this event down piece by piece...the seed for this potentially very impactful storm system can be traced all the way back to the northern Pacific. A somewhat innocent but well defined shortwave...seen in hemispheric WV imagery near the intersection of the Aleutian trench and the Emperor Seamounts...will make its way to the California coast by Thursday afternoon. After crossing the intermountain region on Friday...the increasingly robust shortwave will induce strong cyclogenesis over the southern Plains Friday night. The deepening storm system will cross the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday...while a wedge of high pressure over our region will give way to a burgeoning...far reaching warm frontal boundary and subsequent inverted sfc trough. The deepening moisture field over our forecast area will then be lifted by a strengthening low level jet that will impinge upon a significant tightening of a H925-70 baroclinic zone to our south. There will also be added support from a aloft...as an anomalously strong H25 jet of 170kts will be found over Quebec. All of this will encourage light snow over the western counties during the morning to overspread much of the remainder of the region during the afternoon...with the snow likely becoming moderately heavy over the Southern Tier. Travel conditions should rapidly deteriorate from southwest to northeast as we push through the midday into the afternoon. The peak of the storm is then expected Saturday night...as the deepening cyclone is forecast to track by to our south across Pennsylvania. Strong frontogentic forcing ahead of the system during the first half of the night should support moderate to heavy steady snow across much of our forecast area with steady snow continuing during the overnight within a well defined deformation zone to the north-northeast of the sfc low. Its certainly worth pointing out that the accumulating snow within the deformation zone should be lake enhanced for sites from Wayne county westward to the IAG Frontier. In addition...the deep forcing will remain supported by very strong jet dynamics aloft. Again...the placement of these various lifting mechanisms will ultimately determine the severity of the winter storm...so stay tuned. On Sunday...the still strengthening winter storm will chug from eastern Pennsylvania to the New England coast. This storm track will encourage the aforementioned deformation zone to be `dragged` to the east across our forecast area...while significant lake enhancement within a deepening arctic airmass will most certainly keep snowfall intensities up. The snow at this point will have a water content of roughly 25:1...and with strong winds of 15 to 30 mph likely... there should be extensive blowing and drifting. If the storm plays out as the consensus of the models are suggesting...travel on Sunday will be difficult if not impossible in some areas. The confidence for this scenario is still not quite high enough for headlines... but it is advised to stay tuned for updated forecasts and discussions. The powerful winter storm will exit across the Canadian maritimes Sunday night and Monday. While the synoptic snow will have ended over our region...a persistent north to northwest flow of sub -20c air will keep fairly widespread lake snow showers in place. There should still be a tight enough pressure gradient to support gusty winds...and again...given the low water content of the snow... continued blowing and drifting will be a strong possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That was from Las night. At least the long range part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 80-95% of 12" over higher in an EPS for synoptic is basically unheard of in Upstate 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 A wise man once said you gotta smell the taint to get the biggest totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Being in bullseye 4 days out is never a good thing. However, the tightness of those Ens and consistency run to run in GFS and Euro is reassuring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Usually you get the best snow growth near the taint line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Big fat fluffy flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I know its serious when the Emperor Seamount gets mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Actually one of the best write up I have seen in years from buffalo. I applaud them for doing there job. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I know its serious when the Emperor Seamount gets mentioned. Sounds like this guy was showing off his knowledge of sub oceanic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Sounds like this guy was showing off his knowledge of sub oceanic features. Probably a double major in Oceanography. The tell will be if we see the Laurentian Abyssal mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wpc continues to trend wetter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Probably a double major in Oceanography. The tell will be if we see the Laurentian Abyssal mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 If the Ukie, Tropic Thunder, JMA and ICON models score a coup with this system, as is being suggested/wishcasted elsewhere, I think we will all go insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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