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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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5 hours ago, GreensboroWx said:

Yes, x 1000.

We actually have the cold or will next week.  I think the southern stream will start to crank again in early Feb. I still believe we will still see a significant storm or two in the SE before all is said and done.

 

NO, it'll be torch fest, rest of the so-called "winter".. :drunk::thumbsup: Plenty of Golfing & fishing..  /SARC.. (I hope I'm wrong).. 

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6 minutes ago, SENC said:

Today,, 70 here at the beach, lotsa Speckled Sea Trout.. Just sayin.. 

Crazy temp jump today. 41 to 58 in just an hour and 15 minutes. Any size to the specks?

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

0z Icon,gfs and canadian bring snow tues into wed. Canadian is best 3 to 4 triad to coastal plain. All models light. Icon and gem have low ride up front and helps enc

What about SC?

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What about SC?

Light accums, gfs misses and is inch less here because its just cold front an east of apps we all know how that works. Icon is to warm for you this run. You want to root for canadian solution. Amps a wave out in front. Gfs doesnt have this energy in front to amp.

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Light accums, gfs misses and is inch less here because its just cold front an east of apps we all know how that works. Icon is to warm for you this run. You want to root for canadian solution. Amps a wave out in front. Gfs doesnt have this energy in front to amp.

At this point... I would take a dusting

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0z Fv3 is better for you orangburgwx. Solid 2 to 3 inches columbia up to GSO and all points east. So all globals look encouraging for day 4 to day 5 event. Under 5 days finally for a little event. Should have good ratios but its a quick hitter. 3 to 5 hr event then serious cold to follow

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

0z Fv3 is better for you orangburgwx. Solid 2 to 3 inches columbia up to GSO and all points east. So all globals look encouraging for day 4 to day 5 event. Under 5 days finally for a little event. Should have good ratios but its a quick hitter. 3 to 5 hr event then serious cold to follow

My fv3 maps aren’t out that far yet.  Does the snow make it to the coast?  

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4 hours ago, Lookout said:

 

Still this was a fascinating day here with the warm front and something happened that is pretty rare...the warm front moved through but then pushed back slightly south. Normally of course once it comes through it keeps going or at least doesn't come back.  Athens observations bear it out...the warm front moved just north of here and then came back south. Temps went from the mid 40s to the upper 60s and damn near 70 only to fall back into the low to mid 50s the past few hours. Meanwhile just to the south it's still in the mid to upper 60s. A few miles to the north temps mostly stayed in the 40s.  Indeed at one point, one observation site just a couple of miles away from athens airport was 10 degrees warmer. Personally, cad/wedges aren't just about ice/snow so this is pretty neat to me. 

 

 

Pretty crazy lookout, I had no idea it was that warm there today. I just hit 46 and that's my high for the day. I just checked some other locales and its currently 61 at CLT and 64 at CAE. Power of the wedge can be pretty impressive. 

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15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

^^And it's (6z) trying to joint the party for the next weeks possible event (step in the right direction):

 

 

aaaa.jpg

Fill in the CAE gap and we will be set 

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Pretty crazy lookout, I had no idea it was that warm there today. I just hit 46 and that's my high for the day. I just checked some other locales and its currently 61 at CLT and 64 at CAE. Power of the wedge can be pretty impressive. 

Weird thing is that I stayed cooler than both CLT and CAE yesterday.... And yet I'm further south

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Looks like the 6z FV3 took a step back on the potential event next week. Don't have totals but definitely not the 3-4" shown at 0z. 

The euro really didn't have anything as well. At this point, if I had to bet I would say this will be a none to minimal event. 

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Here was the canadian last night. Again difference is whether the anafrontal can be enhanced by catching the very weak wave out in front and it rides up the front, enhancing moisture. GFS doesnt have this. last night fv3 and Icon did. Euro was very bland just a front passage, lowest qpf.

 

sn10_024h.us_ma.png

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From RAH (not a lot but they did mention it):

Another surge of cold air is expected with the cold front expected to move through the area on Tuesday. Any precip with the system is expected to be generally along and behind the system. This may lead to a brief change over from rain to snow before the light precip exits. Regardless, much colder temps will filer into central NC again by mid next week, with lows ranging from the mid 20s NW to the lower to mid 30s SE and highs ranging from the upper 30s NW to the mid 40s S/SE.

 

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Looks like some of the models are showing light to moderate frontal snow event. If I am not mistaken, these types of systems favor more of the eastern areas of the carolinas and the areas west of 85 seem to get the screw zone with snow, etc. Will be interesting to see how this evolves...

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12 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Looks like some of the models are showing light to moderate frontal snow event. If I am not mistaken, these types of systems favor more of the eastern areas of the carolinas and the areas west of 85 seem to get the screw zone with snow, etc. Will be interesting to see how this evolves...

I-77 and point east... 

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20 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Looks like some of the models are showing light to moderate frontal snow event. If I am not mistaken, these types of systems favor more of the eastern areas of the carolinas and the areas west of 85 seem to get the screw zone with snow, etc. Will be interesting to see how this evolves...

Sad we have to chase these weak events for our area! It’ll be dry and or rain, book it!

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20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Sad we have to chase these weak events for our area! It’ll be dry and or rain, book it!

just imagine if we didnt have that december storm, would be a morgue in here.

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Sad we have to chase these weak events for our area! It’ll be dry and or rain, book it!

I think if we can get the precip behind the front (as discussed), we'll have no issues with it being snow; especially with the surface temps quickly crashing through the 20s.

We've had these type of event in the past, problem is they're rare. This is where our friends over in Tennessee and even into NW Ga usually do better. **mountains really help our forum with CAD but kill us with these type of events (usually).    

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