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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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I see that the local NWS stations are putting snow in the forecasts now:

Friday Night
Friday night ... A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
Saturday: ... Rain and snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Just now, WidreMann said:

The pattern isn't that hostile. We get a transient +PNA, neutralish NAO and negative AO, with a decent cold shot coming down, with reinforcements. It's not the absolute ideal pattern, but I've seen worse patterns produce wintry weather here.

When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are.

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@Jonathan I gotta agree with @WidreMann on that one it really isn’t that hostil meteorologically speaking. You have a low that traverses across the country in the southern stream with confluence up top basically dictating how far north and south this thing goes. The models have moved away from the miller b scenario and are honing in on a miller a scenario in its place. The trend over the next few days is to see if the confluence is modeled too weak or too strong. I am beginning to get that sense as others have alluded to that regardless a good majority are going to get a healthy front end thump, which I’m more than ok with, as that is when we have our best storms. Comes in like a darn wall. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Jonathan I gotta agree with @WidreMann on that one it really isn’t that hostil meteorologically speaking. You have a low that traverses across the country in the southern stream with confluence up top basically dictating how far north and south this thing goes. The models have moved away from the miller b scenario and are honing in on a miller a scenario in its place. The trend over the next few days is to see if the confluence is modeled too weak or too strong. I am beginning to get that sense as others have alluded to that regardless a good majority are going to get a healthy front end thump, which I’m more than ok with, as that is when we have our best storms. Comes in like a darn wall. 

I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! ;) I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours. :) 

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3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! ;) I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours. :) 

I think you’re gonna be just fine as well man, especially with that HP anchored right to our north. Gonna have good antecedent conditions for this one. 

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week.

Euro def has some serious cold building in at 144 from the NE, with a 1039 HP over Iowa. This storm has been intriguing to track at the minimum. 

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2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

When making statements about certain models, please try to post the link or image you are referring to. That is, if you can post the image legally.
This will help folks be able save or bookmark links for models.



.

I’m on my phone when I view these things thus why I can’t.

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