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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

I offer a glimmer of hope, it's almost been whatever the weeklies show it's the opposite therefore maybe now we can get some snow in February.

 

nah this is when the weeklies nail the pattern and everyone begins to worship them again next winter...

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Missed the 1" line again, maybe next year

 

18Z GFS says you'll cash in mid-February....what could possibly go wrong between now and then?  

image.thumb.png.310c5a7020f9cce7c0559598c3d7de59.png

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Just now, hazwoper said:

18Z GFS says you'll cash in mid-February....what could possibly go wrong between now and then?  

image.thumb.png.310c5a7020f9cce7c0559598c3d7de59.png

Someone else said it earlier.....the euro weeklies have almost verified complete opposite of their weeks 2-4 looks. If the same holds true this time late February is going to rock! I wouldnt hold my breath tho.

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GFS #2 brought the Friday evening clipper two hundred miles north and juiced it a bit. Total snow today through the clipper one can dream. This is the only good run i have had all winter in short range yahoo.

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_34.png

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13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS #2 brought the Friday evening clipper two hundred miles north and juiced it a bit. Total snow today through the clipper one can dream. This is the only good run i have had all winter in short range yahoo.

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_34.png

I'm holding on to this for dear life. 

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right before a pattern moderation behind the retreating PV. Check.

Classic juiced overrunning potential surprise? 

Dr No has absolutely zero for Friday, as in it never gets through the mountains of Virginia

 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Friday looking more and more like a non event.. shocker. Thank god we're torching next week.

Today's GFS - Two big cutters, another arctic blast,  one and maybe two deep southern slider hits and heading to a pattern breakdown after that. 

 

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The evidence keeps gathering that we get into the "sweet" pattern the second half of february, entering the end of winter and strong sun angle this gives me no joy

 

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14 hours ago, RedSky said:

The evidence keeps gathering that we get into the "sweet" pattern the second half of february, entering the end of winter and strong sun angle this gives me no joy

 

If by sweet pattern you mean a spring look with a PAC-driven flow and no semblance of sustained HL blocking then yes.....sweet. MJO is trying to move back into a 5/6 amplitude phase. That would be an exclamation point.

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HDERPS is funny but accurate at the same time. Really emphasizing the High Pressure and dry air mass look over PA lol. I agree with this look.....high and dry tomorrow with a snow shower or two. One inch lollis at best but generally a dusting/costing for most . HP eating away any moisture as the area of precip advances. Another good show of how we can fail this winter.

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png

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Just a DC kinda winter where SE PA consistently gets fringed and NYC-BOS gets shutout. Really quite amazing when you think about it. One would think eventually the Northeast is going to pay for this just a matter of when...late Feb? March? 2020? I am not a believer of 'atmospheric memory' but do believe patterns (thus why they are called 'patterns') do tend to setup and repeat. I'm more a believer in atmospheric balance which is a foundation of how much atmospheric science is truly based.

rgem_asnow_neus_36.png

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If by sweet pattern you mean a spring look with a PAC-driven flow and no semblance of sustained HL blocking then yes.....sweet. MJO is trying to move back into a 5/6 amplitude phase. That would be an exclamation point.

Their quite busy tracking two and possibly three long range threats and talking PDIII in the the MA thread haven'y you gotten the memo?

 

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