BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I was just finding my way to Eastern back in 2009, and missed the discussion and model run-up to the big Dec 2009 storm (the mappy wedding day storm), from comments around here in past years worth of discussions, that was one which wasn't necessarily modeled to be that big until 3 or so days ahead of time? If so, what were the model struggling with in the mid-range on that storm? It's hard to find anything! Googling CWG from December 2009 doesn't come up with much in a Google search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: i do not recall much before a week out. the sunday before it was high on my radar, by wednesday I was calling the hotel to see if guests who had saturday reservations, could also get friday night reservations at the same price we had agreed upon for our wedding block. i cannot recall any other specifics on what the models showed. just that it started where i was in frederick around 10pm friday night, and ended 24 hours later. Yeah, I recall a dinner with extended family the Saturday night (a week before the storm) where it was on my radar because I gave them a heads up on the chance for a big snow the following weekend, and recall them being surprised, but have no recall on what the issues were at that point and when it locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I feel like I’m the only one who has given up hope. We went from things looking fantastic to pulling for stings....early yet I know but it would be a heartbreaker if we miss out....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah, I recall a dinner with extended family the Saturday night (a week before the storm) where it was on my radar because I gave them a heads up on the chance for a big snow the following weekend, and recall them being surprised, but have no recall on what the issues were at that point and when it locked in. if you feel like it, i was posting on accuweather at the time, found the thread http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15795 have it. its only 482 pages. let me know if you find any of my posts in there lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: I feel like I’m the only one who has given up hope. We went from things looking fantastic to pulling for stings....early yet I know but it would be a heartbreaker if we miss out....again. Always plan on snow missing this area...it works out much better that way so you won't be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: if you feel like it, i was posting on accuweather at the time, found the thread http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15795 have it. its only 482 pages. let me know if you find any of my posts in there lol I am kinda afraid to look there because...I was posting there then too, and...I am guessing I was terrible. Beyond terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I am kinda afraid to look there because...I was posting there then too, and...I am guessing I was terrible. Beyond terrible. oh boy! i am sure there are some familiar names in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wow! That's really cool. Always bet on fail. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. I typically always expect fail here lol. But it does get old after a while. I guess the one positive at this point is that it’s december not February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wow! That's really cool. Always bet on fail. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. Don't bet on a Fail. Bet on Washington DC and the greater Mid Atlantic Region will have a massively SNOWY winter, in 2018-2019. Because it is in the cards and it is gonna happen. I read the tea leaves and Washington DC is gonna get destroyed by snow this winter. And YOU, Reaper, You ARE The Reaper and you SHALL act the part in this subforum this winter, You will be out of work because there will be no one to Reap because this is going to be one of the greatest Mid Atlantic snow winters this region has ever imagined! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Found it! http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/forecast_windy_and_mild_today.html The weekend will probably remain mostly on the cold side and a couple disturbances could work through the area. As of right now (and this is subject to change as we get closer to the weekend) we are looking at a 20% chance of snow showers on Saturday increasing to 30% on Sunday. We're still keeping a close eye on the possibility of a coastal storm. Highs should be near 40 with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Low By Matt Rogers | December 15, 2009; 5:00 AM ET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: Don't bet on a Fail. Bet on Washington DC and the greater Mid Atlantic Region will have a massively SNOWY winter, in 2018-2019. Because it is in the cards and it is gonna happen. I read the tea leaves and Washington DC is gonna get destroyed by snow this winter. One can only hope. I hope I didn't jinx the 270 crew with my latest move. I just wanted to witness firsthand at least the southern edge of a psuhoffman death band during a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Fun link, mappy, the maps from the runs a week out from that storm that were posted are helpful to scroll through. Originally folks were focused on a clipper for that time period based on the modeling, the energy that became the southern feed for the event was just being hinted at I guess. Also funny to now remember that is now the operational GFS was back then the para...and people were hugging the para seven days out because it had the coastal while the then operational had mostly nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, tplbge said: One can only hope. I hope I didn't jinx the 270 crew with my latest move. I just wanted to witness firsthand at least the southern edge of a psuhoffman death band during a blizzard. Hope is alive! The Dream is alive and well! Get your Jebman Shovels, snowblowers and ice melter. Stock up on food, stout and get ready for a ROCKIN' Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'm going to post a sub with quotes from Mappy's link. I have no life. yw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Fun link, mappy, the maps from the runs a week out from that storm that were posted are helpful to scroll through. Originally folks were focused on a clipper for that time period based on the modeling, the energy that became the southern feed for the event was just being hinted at I guess. Also funny to now remember that was is now the operational GFS was back then the para...and people were hugging the para seven days out because it had the coastal while the then operational had mostly nothing... oh man, now i want to take a trip down memory lane. i didn't join eastern until after the Feb 2010 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: oh man, now i want to take a trip down memory lane. i didn't join eastern until after the Feb 2010 storms. That thread is worth the read I think. I will not be able to read it in full until after work, but definitely thanks for the heads up and find on it. I wasn't at Eastern until just before the Feb storms...I think. Maybe after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 perhaps its just me, but having a snowstorm overhead 5-6 days out is not where i want to be. i like the southern look, for now. these things do come north, more often than not. i think most should continue to watch, and not give up, just yet... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, mappy said: perhaps its just me, but having a snowstorm overhead 5-6 days out is not where i want to be. i like the southern look, for now. these things do come north, more often than not. i think most should continue to watch, and not give up, just yet... The accuwx forums definitely signals some deja vu. eta: Not having -NAO is the biggest difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The first run the euro blew up a coastal in 2009 was day 5, but it's interesting to see no high to the north...from Accuwx forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18z GFS was a good hit for *ducks* Charlottesville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS was a good hit for *ducks* Charlottesville. And apparently Chile....doh! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others. that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 You know the 18z GFS is wrong snow wise because it gives DT nearly 2 feet of snow... DT snow shield is always in effect... so it should bump north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I think the less suppression crowd is just getting lucky from a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18z FV3 at 6 hours is the same as the 12z FV3 at 12 hours fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I hope I'm not the only one over 21 who doesn't drink here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Animating the GFS, it doesn't look so bad in the long run. I think we'll keep getting +PNA shots this year. You're late 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I hope I'm not the only one over 21 who doesn't drink here. Bob doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, mappy said: perhaps its just me, but having a snowstorm overhead 5-6 days out is not where i want to be. i like the southern look, for now. these things do come north, more often than not. i think most should continue to watch, and not give up, just yet... Listen to mother!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 18z FV3 at 6 hours is the same as the 12z FV3 at 12 hours fwiw Fv3 so far looks identical but that's ok. I was fine with its last run and a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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