ILwxchr Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Lapse rates on the 18z NAM are pretty impressive along with the 700mb vertical velocities within the cold sector. I wouldn't be shocked to see some thundersnow as well within the heavy snow band. Looks like ILX and LOT both went with winter storm watches along with the rest of the DVN CWA too. All images valid at 18z Sunday Nov 25th via the 18z NAM today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 18Z GFS doesn't seem like it budged much from the 12Z. If anything it's a tick North. 00Z will be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Nice spread for a storm less than 48 hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Someone needs to turn the SE Michigan snow magnet back on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Nice spread for a storm less than 48 hours away. Clear as mud. To make matters even more fun today for the wfo's, there was a nationwide data outage, so the day shift had no new model data ingested to create the forecast grids.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 DSM NWS forecast discussion out, they’re favoring the NAM and Euro, citing the Euro being most consistent model for this the last several runs. This means a more southeastern track with DSM getting an inch or two of snow. But the 18z GFS does not agree with that all, but it has been less consistent. But did I read they were forced to use outdated model runs in their forecast due to an outage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The system not digging as far south in the Plains is hurting us further east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 GFS is almost even further north than its last run. Outlier by 100+ miles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS is almost even further north than its last run. Outlier by 100+ miles now It's a major model though. Not sure how much faith to put in it given its an outlier, but ts got to be considered..right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: It's a major model though. Not sure how much faith to put in it given its an outlier, but ts got to be considered..right? Of course you consider it, however it shouldn’t be given a lot of weight until other guidance shifts towards it. Tonight’s runs will be telling as we should have partial sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I’m inclined to believe the GFS this go around. Each run has been remarkably consistent on the north trend today, and the ensembles are with it. Euro ensembles also shifted northwest a good amount today. Even the King can fail every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Honestly there’s still not much consensus, perhaps less than yesterday. We have the EC on the far southern end of the envelope and the GFS on the far northern end, with all other models somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Honestly there’s still not much consensus, perhaps less than yesterday. We have the EC on the far southern end of the envelope and the GFS on the far northern end, with all other models somewhere in between. Answer typically falls in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Rarely is there a solid consensus via models at this distance. This model fluctuation is more typical than atypical. No model has shown a consistent track over the past 72 hours. They have been consistent showing a major impact storm for the past week. The European model lost the title "King" long ago. Perhaps the GFS is the model that being an outlier south all week is now working its way back to the northern placement most of the other models had been showing most of the week up until yesterday's runs. My experience tells me I'd like to be in Eastern Iowa and South Wisconsin. But than I recall St Louis getting a decent storm only a week ago.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This low really loses its warm sector quickly once it reaches western MI, probably an argument for a southward shift of the snow zone in general after passing Lake Michigan. Would suggest 8-12" s.e. IA, n IL, s WI into parts of s/c MI and 2-5" beginning to appear east of South Bend into se MI, sw ON, rain-snow mix in OH. Rapid pressure jump to coast means Toronto could see mostly snow despite the track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 29 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’m inclined to believe the GFS this go around. Each run has been remarkably consistent on the north trend today, and the ensembles are with it. Euro ensembles also shifted northwest a good amount today. Even the King can fail every once in a while. After it was just as remarkably consistent with it’s south trend yesterday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: After it was just as remarkably consistent with it’s south trend yesterday... GFS had been the south outlier all week. Not just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3/GFS/GEFS well north of short/medium term guidance. That’s new. Hopefully the 00z runs shift towards a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Lol @ the GFS going from the southern outlier yesterday to the northern outlier today. Blending all of the guidance together puts us in a pretty good spot. Tonight's 00z should hopefully start to see more agreement among the models. Still early to make a call, but I'm liking the possibility of 6"+ for here and the QC. 40-50mph wind gusts will definitely make some mammoth drifts out in open country. EDIT: Point from DVN has 7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Also, here’s the HRRR at 36 hours out. Not worth much, but just taking everything into consideration at this point. Definitely further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: 18z euro NAM running now, let’s see where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: 18z euro There's an 18Z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Baum said: There's an 18Z euro? It’s a new feature I believe. I didn’t know about it until a few weeks ago I saw a tweet about 18z and 06z euro runs, and I looked & sure enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM looks south through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 00z NAM is south, and maybe a touch weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: 00z NAM is south, and maybe a touch weaker. Yep, get through IL and hits the left turn signal, passing over Fort Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep, get through IL and hits the left turn signal, passing over Fort Wayne Looking at the 500mb maps I think it should have kept sliding more easterly maybe ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep, get through IL and hits the left turn signal, passing over Fort Wayne Ft Wayne low passage is normally golden for me. But November....8:1 ratios much tougher. Oh, and it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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