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Ginx snewx

Annual end of Oct blockbuster

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And it's gone on the 12z Euro

Very fickle situation

All about timing

Surely will happen run to run. Watch EPS until day 5 or 6

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint.  I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters.

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though.

I always kid around about the big October snows=crappy winter.  The SNE sample size is very small.  2 events at ORH >6” in October. Both of those were bad winters, but just noise really.  Will always pulls out the number of measurable October years for ORH and it is significant, but I think it is 50/50 where we get good or bad overall winters from that. 

 

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15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I always kid around about the big October snows=crappy winter.  The SNE sample size is very small.  2 events at ORH >6” in October. Both of those were bad winters, but just noise really.  Will always pulls out the number of measurable October years for ORH and it is significant, but I think it is 50/50 where we get good or bad overall winters from that. 

 

I also don't think autumn nor'easters and early snowfall are mutually exclusive.  To me I'd obviously rather see autumn nor'easters than a big ridge, but that generally means deep troughs in the east during that time.  And the fear of early snows means the rubber band snaps back, but wouldn't it all be connected to troughiness in the east in October?  

I think of the years with huge October storms like 2006 that dropped feet of snow in the mountains (and that month was just real stormy in general) but then the October trough disappeared for 3 months.  October 2011 had a series of storms that ended with the whopper.  

I think I just confused myself there but to me it's all connected.  It's sort of like the collective wants big storms but not cold enough to snow ;).

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No

I'll take a look around.  I'd just love to be able to back that up if I told someone that it's a good sign as it would be a cool stat.

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'll take a look around.  I'd just love to be able to back that up if I told someone that it's a good sign as it would be a cool stat.

This will be my 73rd winter beginning 12/1 after 4:03 AM.  So figuring I lost the first 10 years to growing up enough to pay attention.  I lost 15 winters residing in LA.  That leaves a strong memory of 47 winters.   I’ve never seen a ratter after an autumn with decent coastals....never.

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25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This will be my 73rd winter beginning 12/1 after 4:03 AM.  So figuring I lost the first 10 years to growing up enough to pay attention.  I lost 15 winters residing in LA.  That leaves a strong memory of 47 winters.   I’ve never seen a ratter after an autumn with decent coastals....never.

Oct 2011 and Oct 2006 as I meantioned earlier?  There were a couple in October 2015 too that I remember because they ended as snow on the slopes.  I'm not trying to be an annoying dink, ha, just purely playing devils advocate because I'm curious.  

Personally, I'd think getting good coastals going after mid/late November into early December would portray better as it's the same thing as October snow.  The deep trough in October that caused big nor'easters could just as easily lift out and be gone as the rubber band snaps, just like fears of early snow that you are blowing the load too early.

Could take this a step further and just look at ratter winters and if they had any strong coastal storms.  Maybe the real way to look at it is we've never seen a huge winter that didn't have autumn nor'easters?

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oct 2011 and Oct 2006 as I meantioned earlier?  There were a couple in October 2015 too that I remember because they ended as snow on the slopes.  I'm not trying to be an annoying dink, ha, just purely playing devils advocate because I'm curious.  

Personally, I'd think getting good coastals going after mid/late November into early December would portray better as it's the same thing as October snow.  The deep trough in October that caused big nor'easters could just as easily lift out and be gone as the rubber band snaps, just like fears of early snow that you are blowing the load too early.

Could take this a step further and just look at ratter winters and if they had any strong coastal storms.  Maybe the real way to look at it is we've never seen a huge winter that didn't have autumn nor'easters?

Well lets just say coming to a model page near you. The research is done 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0711.1

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oct 2011 and Oct 2006 as I meantioned earlier?  There were a couple in October 2015 too that I remember because they ended as snow on the slopes.  I'm not trying to be an annoying dink, ha, just purely playing devils advocate because I'm curious.  

Personally, I'd think getting good coastals going after mid/late November into early December would portray better as it's the same thing as October snow.  The deep trough in October that caused big nor'easters could just as easily lift out and be gone as the rubber band snaps, just like fears of early snow that you are blowing the load too early.

Could take this a step further and just look at ratter winters and if they had any strong coastal storms.  Maybe the real way to look at it is we've never seen a huge winter that didn't have autumn nor'easters?

I don’t look at one storm as in 2011 as a signal.  The pattern was crap save for 10 days over 6 months.  I can’t remember 2006 autumn actually.

2015 was not a ratter.  It was a bit weak but within 20-25% of normal snow.  Also, we had some bad luck.  Point is this chilly pattern seems to have legs and that can’t be bad.

 

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Let me throw in Oct. '79. We got some accumulation even down here around Columbus Day. That weekend was insanely cold too.The '79-80 winter turned out to be a complete ratter. Sort of a harbinger for many of the winters of the 80s.

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well lets just say coming to a model page near you. The research is done 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0711.1

Nice I'll have to get more into that.  That synthetic model would be cool.

Based on the summary though they seem to be more drawing conclusions on winter storms tracks based on ENSO, NAO and PNA...which makes more sense than autumn frequency.  

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t look at one storm as in 2011 as a signal.  The pattern was crap save for 10 days over 6 months.  I can’t remember 2006 autumn actually.

Well I thought there were two other storms before the big one everyone remembers in 2011.  That was the third and final one, almost like the trough was blowing its final load, ha.  There was one that left some snow in the hilltowns a few days prior to the monster storm and I thought one in mid-October somewhere in there.  

2006 was a parade of nor'easters in the second half of October and even a hybrid hurricane Wilma that ended up dumping snows in the mountains.  Mansfield stake had a 25-inch settled depth at the end of that October and Killington opened like 60 trails solely on natural snow after a series of coastal lows. Then the trough disappeared until February ha.

Again, I personally would rather see coastal storms than not and I get that it seems like a good thing.  But meteorologically I think it also means there's a good H5 trough in place in the east for that stuff to happen.  Maybe that's the trick more so than "storms"...October troughs bring winter fun. 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice I'll have to get more into that.  That synthetic model would be cool.

Based on the summary though they seem to be more drawing conclusions on winter storms tracks based on ENSO, NAO and PNA...which makes more sense than autumn frequency.  

They also used all of the deep LP Autumn correlations to help develop a model to predict upcoming winter severe storms. 

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46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice I'll have to get more into that.  That synthetic model would be cool.

Based on the summary though they seem to be more drawing conclusions on winter storms tracks based on ENSO, NAO and PNA...which makes more sense than autumn frequency.  

Right. We get a share of storms into November no matter what the following winter does.

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well I thought there were two other storms before the big one everyone remembers in 2011.  That was the third and final one, almost like the trough was blowing its final load, ha.  There was one that left some snow in the hilltowns a few days prior to the monster storm and I thought one in mid-October somewhere in there.  

2006 was a parade of nor'easters in the second half of October and even a hybrid hurricane Wilma that ended up dumping snows in the mountains.  Mansfield stake had a 25-inch settled depth at the end of that October and Killington opened like 60 trails solely on natural snow after a series of coastal lows. Then the trough disappeared until February ha.

Again, I personally would rather see coastal storms than not and I get that it seems like a good thing.  But meteorologically I think it also means there's a good H5 trough in place in the east for that stuff to happen.  Maybe that's the trick more so than "storms"...October troughs bring winter fun. 

Ninos often tend to be stormy in the autumn.  2011-12 was a second year of nina-we should have known since they are rarely good.  Not sure about the 2nd year nino results are which could come in 2019-20.

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. We get a share of storms into November no matter what the following winter does.

Its about number, depth and type of cyclogen. 

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Using singular years or storms doesn't make correlation data very pertinent.  The accumulated data is what works. Lets hope for lots of deep slow movers this fall 

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its about number, depth and type of cyclogen. 

I feel like it doesn’t matter. We’ve had good winters without a ton of storms in October and vice-verse. That’s basically saying a pattern that is producing storms now is supposed to hold true all winter. I think in general Nino falls tend to have more east coast storms, but not every Nino is good around here.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a prelude to the predominate type of cyclogenesis this winter imho.

I agree with you..I see a very active coastal track.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it doesn’t matter. We’ve had good winters without a ton of storms in October and vice-verse. That’s basically saying a pattern that is producing storms now is supposed to hold true all winter. I think in general Nino falls tend to have more east coast storms, but not every Nino is good around here.

Most weak el nino events are.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not just coastal...but the evolution of cyclogenesis....ie N stream phasing in late.

This is exciting but also a great weather lesson which I had not thought about.  I think we are in for a fun winter!  

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it doesn’t matter. We’ve had good winters without a ton of storms in October and vice-verse. That’s basically saying a pattern that is producing storms now is supposed to hold true all winter. I think in general Nino falls tend to have more east coast storms, but not every Nino is good around here.

It’s not October but autumn as a whole.  

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