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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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5 minutes ago, jayson said:

Satellite presentation is starting to look a bit better, but something def was eroding the SW quadrant. It has likely been a Cat3 for the past few hours.

There has definitely been some shear but it shouldn't persist much longer.

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26 minutes ago, hickory said:

We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh 

Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. 

I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. 

I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. 

 

It wasn’t that great when Florence went from low end cane to cat 4 over 27c water. But I agree it’s light years better then it was 30 years ago.  

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1 hour ago, hickory said:

Look I just wish our goverment would spend more on science than defense. Imagine what we could do with half of the defense budget. 

To be sure I would be heartened if we were to increase NOAA’s budget by say, the flyaway cost of 10 F-35s per year, and to be sure it is worthwhile to continue to strive for 120 or 168 or 192 hours of reliable warning rather than 96, 72, or 48-36. But Derecho! is right that sciencewise the forecasting is amazing; what probably most needs attention is our social and civic infrastructure in terms of preparedness & anticipating climatologically plausible emergencies generally and for acting on the warnings we do get for specific imminent hazards.

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I am so proud of my local forecast office because every dang little infographic and powerpoint slide they put out on everything from “weird clouds” to “life hazardous blizzard chaos” shows that somewhere, some trained weather professional is striving not just to have a forecast that verifies but also to make it meaningfully actionable for idiots like me.

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Well it looks like the NHC is doing a white lie keeping Florence officially at 140 mph. With a storm so threatening I'd fear lowering the wind speed would decrease public concern so I can see why they are bending the observations a little bit and more than likely with the pressure falling I'd say the storm will restrengthen to some extent. If the storm were to maintain the status quo and were still kept at 140 I'd have a problem with it however.

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1 hour ago, Derecho! said:

Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. 

I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. 

 

The Euro nailed the general position of Florence along the NC coast on day 9, maybe day 10 when it was just a wave coming off the west African coast. That is impressive.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It wasn’t that great when Florence went from low end cane to cat 4 over 27c water. But I agree it’s light years better then it was 30 years ago.  

I typed "track" not "intensity." 

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Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington.   I think we are screwed.   Riding it out.   Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around.    But with this latest update I am doubting staying.   

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1 hour ago, NCWX said:

Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington.   I think we are screwed.   Riding it out.   Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around.    But with this latest update I am doubting staying.   

Who knows how accurate it is, but my weather app has the storm going almost directly through Leland as a Cat 2. STRAP DOWN THE KEGS!!

Oh... and maybe think a little harder about fleeing. I would flee.

Screenshot_20180912-012228_Storm Radar.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Keelala said:

Who knows how accurate it is, but my weather app has the storm going almost directly through Leland as a Cat 2. STRAP DOWN THE KEGS!!

Oh... and maybe think a little harder about fleeing. I would flee.

Screenshot_20180912-012228_Storm Radar.jpg

i'll eat my shoe and post it in this thread if an inland location like that actually experiences sustained 110

 

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1 hour ago, NCWX said:

Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington.   I think we are screwed.   Riding it out.   Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around.    But with this latest update I am doubting staying.   

As long as you are safe from flooding and have a half decent "safe room" it isn't crazy to stay and experience hurricane winds.

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We are at 60 feet above sea level.   Our neighborhood is built on the highest point in our county.    Calling it a night.  See you all tomorrow.   

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18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

i'll eat my shoe and post it in this thread if an inland location like that actually experiences sustained 110

 

He's like 15 miles inland, max. This storm is 500 miles in diameter, give or take a shoe. It's going to be insanely windy there before it ever makes official landfall. Surge shouldn't be an issue at that elevation, but the winds... at the very least the power will be out and the water contaminated. I don't trust that the relief efforts will be fast or efficient. You can laugh at me after it's over, seriously, I would love to be wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Keelala said:

He's like 15 miles inland, max. This storm is 500 miles in diameter, give or take a shoe. It's going to be insanely windy there before it ever makes official landfall. Surge shouldn't be an issue at that elevation, but the winds... at the very least the power will be out and the water contaminated. I don't trust that the relief efforts will be fast or efficient. You can laugh at me after it's over, seriously, I would love to be wrong.

15 miles is a long distance for frictional effects to bring down the wind speed. i'm not saying the wind won't be intense, but it won't be 110/130g.

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10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

15 miles is a long distance for frictional effects to bring down the wind speed. i'm not saying the wind won't be intense, but it won't be 110/130g.

I do believe you, but at the "highest point in the county," wouldn't frictional effects be lessened?

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8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

it's not mount denali.  how many feet ASL are we talking here? 50? 100?

I dunno. We'll just have to wait and see.

In any case, Flo sure looks funky here. Looks like she's spitting out baby hurricanes to make the wishcasts come true. "You, slam into NYC, and you... I need you to take out Miami."

Screenshot_20180912-024602_Chrome Beta.jpg

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Just now, Keelala said:

I dunno. We'll just have to wait and see.

In any case, Flo sure looks funky here. Looks like she's spitting out baby hurricanes to make the wishcasts come true. "You, slam into NYC, and you... I need you to take out Miami."

Screenshot_20180912-024602_Chrome Beta.jpg

if you stare into that long enough you'll see a ghastly birdface on the left blob.  could have a higher meaning...

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

if you stare into that long enough you'll see a ghastly birdface on the left blob.  could have a higher meaning...

I see it!! And in the right blob, a dragon taking a selfie.

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