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Hurricane Florence


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Such a strange evolution of the remnants of Florence. 

The high PWAT air mass is drawn north into a convergent zone that has fairly good consensus near the MA/NH border. That squeezes out the heavy rain. But the actual core of Florence gets cut off from the trough and slides SE and back out to sea. The level circulation very clearly goes back into the Atlantic across the Chesapeake.

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Such a strange evolution of the remnants of Florence. 

The high PWAT air mass is drawn north into a convergent zone that has fairly good consensus near the MA/NH border. That squeezes out the heavy rain. But the actual core of Florence gets cut off from the trough and slides SE and back out to sea. The level circulation very clearly goes back into the Atlantic across the Chesapeake.

Winds should be pretty minimal I would imagine

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Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

You just have to look at the Wrightsville Beach surge. Far far lower then hazel. Another factor that hasn’t received much attention is the limited population affected. The big population centers in North Carolina are well inland unlike further up the coast. Take Charlotte or Raleigh and place them where Wilmington is and you have a whole other animal  

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

Don't say that in the main florence thread you'll get crucified.  

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Not sure what thread to post this in but a real hard forecast in my region coming up.  Florence rain up and out!  Where does the swath set up?  Up until the 18Z GFS I was just north of the rain on both models giving me basically no rain to speak off.  Then the GFS comes north to give me 2".  Glad this is not a snow situation.  Huge bust potential through my towns up here.  

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

Imagine what the death toll would have been if it came in at 130mph...

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

Some bad decisions but some don’t have the means to get out of town, unfortunately. 20% of Wilmington’s population of 120k is under the poverty line. To put into perspective, Bridgeport CT of 152k is 18%. 

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some bad decisions but some don’t have the means to get out of town, unfortunately. 20% of Wilmington’s population of 120k is under the poverty line. To put into perspective, Bridgeport CT of 152k is 18%. 

Oh' I know.   Can you imagine the toll in modern day Bridgeport and New Haven if a repeat of 1938 rolled through?  Hartford and Springfield?   I would venture hundreds killed by trees alone...

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21 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh' I know.   Can you imagine the toll in modern day Bridgeport and New Haven if a repeat of 1938 rolled through?  Hartford and Springfield?   I would venture hundreds killed by trees alone...

More trees in CT now than in the '30s as agriculture shifted away from the state. I shudder to think what a contemporary beast of that magnitude would do. Think about how long it took to restore power in the hard hit towns after the May 15 tornado/macroburst. Imagine that on a regional scale. 

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12 hours ago, Hoth said:

More trees in CT now than in the '30s as agriculture shifted away from the state. I shudder to think what a contemporary beast of that magnitude would do. Think about how long it took to restore power in the hard hit towns after the May 15 tornado/macroburst. Imagine that on a regional scale. 

The CRV population has grown exponentially since then too.  It would be an infrastructure nightmare.

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This thread's probably scrolled for good reason but ... I'm getting a chuckle out of the overnight model runs.

They are using sheared and/or in whole, remnant Florence vorticity field to regenerate/generate either a new TC, or a zombie Florences. Said vestige was advected seaward from off New England over night and is getting pressed back SW on a broad retrograde parabolic motion that brings it near Bermuda than close to the SE Coast again...  

Some models are doing this more coherently than others, but they all have some semblance of a similar behavior at least hinted the same.   

Wouldn't that be a hoot -

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As an afterthought/memory ... I recall a few 'cockamammy' looking GFS runs earlier last week when this was still just in CV transit that did perform big loops - it's just that it was doing it more so with an intact Flo' ...taking it off the EC then SE of CC ...performing a loop and then zipping it to England.  

There may be something to be said for that similarity on whole -  

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