Tatamy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 54 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Quite possible with the big ridge I am on board with forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I am on board with forky. We still don't know how strong the ridge will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 So basically we either get a lot of rain, a lot of wind, or another stretch of 90+/75+. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: So basically we either get a lot of rain, a lot of wind, or another stretch of 90+/75+. Yay. Pretty boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 From the NHC's 11:00 AST discussion: The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Gfs caving toward euro . Right into NC .... bye bye outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time. Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area. I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 When can we expect flights into the storm for better model data???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time. Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area. I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol Ant you do realize its still 6-7 days away..... hurricanes have greater than a 300 miles error at that point in time. Definitely wouldn't let guard down. However, at this time a NC landfall is looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time. Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area. I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol silly for fantasy range...day 5 or less is worth losing sleep over not day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Definitely starting to feel better about my flight out of LGA Friday morning. UKIE and GGEM have it going into Savannah now LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Definitely starting to feel better about my flight out of LGA Friday morning. UKIE and GGEM have it going into Savannah now LOL. AT this rate it might steam roll across FL and head into GOM.... unlikely but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 12z had this up the coast yesterday. I was really looking forward to TS conditions next week. Sad times but thank god it's not a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Yeah this threat is all but dead for our area unless the WAR suddenly gets weaker for next week, which seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: Yeah this threat is all but dead for our area unless the WAR suddenly gets weaker for next week, which seems unlikely. Plenty of time left 18z gfs has the war slightly weaker. Alot of rain for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NyCwEaThErFeEn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Plenty of time left 18z gfs has the war slightly weaker. Alot of rain for our area. Yes plenty of time but it’s unlikely at this point. I wouldn’t mind a nice rainstorm or a tropical storm. Still plenty of time for this to head north though Anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Updated DT (WxRisk) video on Florence. https://youtu.be/Hmx_7bCpGb8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 If the Euro and DT's thoughts are correct we would probably see minimal remnant impacts from Florence, maybe an inch or two of rain at best. Obviously still a bit of a ways out yet and alot can change over the next couple of days so we will have to see how things play out. But if we experience the heavy rain expected Sunday/Monday even and 1-2" that the remnants of Florence could produce for our area could cause some issues. He also noted in his video that with the strong WAR in place if anyone thinks Florence is coming to New England, NJ, NYC its not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: If the Euro and DT's thoughts are correct we would probably see minimal remnant impacts from Florence, maybe an inch or two of rain at best. Obviously still a bit of a ways out yet and alot can change over the next couple of days so we will have to see how things play out. But if we experience the heavy rain expected Sunday/Monday even and 1-2" that the remnants of Florence could produce for our area could cause some issues. He also noted in his video that with the strong WAR in place if anyone thinks Florence is coming to New England, NJ, NYC its not happening. Well if his verification record is anything like his winter forecast I am going to start preparing now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I am seeing on social media that North Carolina has already declared a State of Emergency for Florence. Can anyone else confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Florence ensemble spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Ronzoni myself but who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Someone may have to write an encomium for the entire EC. Cat3 menaces coastline for a week w/o coming on shore!!!??? Hours 120 to 300. THERE WAS A BEACH NAMED CONEY.... WHERE THE PEOPLE AND BARKERS WERE CALLED PHONEY....... T'WAS THERE A GIRL NAMED FLORENCE WAS JILTED ..... SO THE ENTIRE EAST COAST SHE TILTED. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 The 06z GFS is clueless on what to do with Florence IMO. Stick with the Euro as I think it has a much better handle on things and even then there will probably be further adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 It continues to look like the Carolinas area will be the area that Florence hits. Check out how the WAR to the north will be near record levels for this time of year. This ridge is so extreme this year, that Florence will be the first recorded hurricane to reach the U.S. coast from that position. Updating yesterday's tidbit... as of Friday morning's advisory, 79 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence's position since 1851, and not one has ever come close to the U.S. coast. pic.twitter.com/IZurMUWhXh 4:55 AM - 7 Sep 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I posted this in another thread but will ask it here. If Florence does regain her strength and comes in hard at like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't the tendency for storms over the ocean to be steered polewards / North ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I posted this in another thread but will ask it here. If Florence does regain her strength and comes in hard at like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't the tendency for storms over the ocean to be steered polewards / North ? Yes that is usually the case. Models might be overestimating the ridge. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes that is usually the case. Models might be overestimating the ridge. We shall see Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NyCwEaThErFeEn Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ? Not one model has this hitting us directly but you never know the models suck nowadays. Still a bit of time for this to adjust. I would be worried if I lived in Wilmington North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 EURO is hellbent on a Hugo repeat (need the rain... But damn those winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.