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snowlover2

August 2018 General Discussion

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Last month of met summer is nearly upon us. Appears any heat/extreme heat will remain west of the sub through the early part of the month. If one believes the long range GFS it might start heating up again closer to the middle of the month.

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00z GFS has a spring like (or what should be a spring like-not this past spring!) surface pattern around 180-200 hours with a low in the Rockies and southerly flow in the Plains. However the 500mb pattern doesn't match, with that pesky ridge in the Southwest.

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240 hour models are showing signs of a -nao developing............which would obviously be a major pattern change. But..........it is a long way away into the first week of August at least. There have been some false flags before.

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GFS has been consistent for a couple days now of wanting to bring a strong reservoir of instability back over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes for the 8/4-8/7 range, coincident with a decent (especially by summer standards) belt of W-WNW 500 mb flow. Forecast soundings suggest capping might be an issue, at least on Saturday the 4th, but of course the details are always up in the air at this range. At the very least, conditions should be there for some severe wind-producing convective complexes, and of course something could surprise like on July 19th.

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2 hours ago, XfireLOW said:

It got cold last night up here last night.  Here in Baudette it only got down to 44 at the airport.    

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Keep that up there! :lol:

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive

And the INL hourly obs were interesting...it was 56/49 at 9 PM last night...then 35/35 at 6 AM this morning...then up to 50/50 three hours later.  Is that indicative of extreme radiational cooling...where both the temp and Td dropped significantly for a brief period of time, then recovered? 

You don't see that too often, especially this time of year. 

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36 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

And the INL hourly obs were interesting...it was 56/49 at 9 PM last night...then 35/35 at 6 AM this morning...then up to 50/50 three hours later.  Is that indicative of extreme radiational cooling...where both the temp and Td dropped significantly for a brief period of time, then recovered? 

You don't see that too often, especially this time of year. 

Yes, definitely some good radiational cooling. You can see it on the morning sounding, with the temp and dewpoint matching from about 970 mb and lower.

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Looks like the 90's make a return this weekend...

I'll go 95 Sat/Sun and 90 Mon.

Cloud debris could be an issue each day, and Mon could have storm issues...So none of the days are super high confidence.

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3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Not much of a -nao phase coming.

There has been quite an aversion to getting a -NAO for months now.  It has been positive or neutral almost the whole time.

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For the last several weeks there have been more days than not with storm chances here in southern Ontario. I get a kick out of seeing the forecast knowing nothing like a storm will hit me. I've heard maybe a rumble here and there but even that I'd say less than 5 rumbles for all of 2018 so far...not joking! One of the most impressive weather streaks is still ongoing of no thunderstorms to date IMBY for 2018!!! :lol: August 3!! A few weeks ago that was comedy, now its a rule of thumb! I've been watching for months now the storms just skirt or fizzle out around me every.single.time...:lmao:. Today there was a much higher chance for local storms and there were some very slow moving cells (lots of lightning) north slowly inching down over the afternoon and then more formation closer started bringing darker skies and threatening weather. Probably within walking distance rain was falling but no rain, one rumble, and the closest lightning was just out of range by a mile or two...the shield was up. I was really starting to wonder if my bubble was ready to burst; it didn't.

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18 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like the 90's make a return this weekend...

I'll go 95 Sat/Sun and 90 Mon.

Cloud debris could be an issue each day, and Mon could have storm issues...So none of the days are super high confidence.

Already 90 at ORD

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Already 90 at ORD

91 now. Clouds shouldn’t be an issue until later in the afternoon as it looks like now.

I’ll revise to 97 today, 95 tomorrow and 90 on Monday.

 

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Up to 97 at ORD now.

We’re just about at maximum heating potential given UA temps and mixing levels, so should flatline shortly. Cirrus cloud debris will be moving in shortly as well.

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29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Up to 97 at ORD now.

We’re just about at maximum heating potential given UA temps and mixing levels, so should flatline shortly. Cirrus cloud debris will be moving in shortly as well.

ORD also hit 97 back in May.  1967 will remain the only year that Chicago's highest temp of the year occurred in May, and wasn't matched/exceeded in following months.

I was wondering if having the observation site close to the lake in prior decades may have affected the frequency of that (with lake temps still being rather cold in May, perhaps it would make it less likely to have the warmest day of the year in May) but I checked Rockford and it is a pretty rare occurrence there as well, although it has happened a little more than at Chicago.

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Topped out at 97 at ORD and 96 and MDW today.

Thicker cirrus that moved in this afternoon might have knocked 1F off potential highs.

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91 at ORD thus far.

There has been a lot of cloud debris all day, and an OFB that moved through earlier. Looks like more clearing mid-late afternoon, so there will be a chance for a late rally.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming the low of 78 at ORD holds up the rest of the day (it should), it would tie the record high min from 1881.

It should hold, as it looks like storms should stay away from SE. WI until very late tonight.

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The drought region of southern Iowa hit the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.  We surged to about 90(dew of 74) once the earlier storms moved out, but more storms and clouds have moved in.  DVN has become more bullish on storms and heavy rain sinking farther south tonight than what models have been showing(models have missed all the storms in Iowa today).  I hope that pans out because it is becoming dry here, and it may not rain again through day 10 once tonight is over.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming the low of 78 at ORD holds up the rest of the day (it should), it would tie the record high min from 1881.

Unexpected MCS pushing into NW. IL might be a big issue for this...

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