yoda Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Almost looks like Florence is starting or in the middle of a recurve at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Almost looks like Florence is starting or in the middle of a recurve at 240 Euro and Canadian in almost the same exact spot at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Tropics suddenly looking more active. Who'd have thunk it two weeks out from peak season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 I should add that verbatim there's some solid NATL blocking at the end of the run. EPS hinted at this yesterday too. We'll keep an eye on what happens with the WPAC typhoon recurve ("Jebi" I think?), as that will probably drive the look on our end next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Huge shift west on the 18z gfs almost grazes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Tropical hope is eternal. Don't turn off interest from Florence yet, although odds would favor a split of the uprights between E.coast and Bermuda. My interests are more local re: Gordon has the "potential" to explode (presently not modeled) into something much more powerful into the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades 80 miles north here and just some showers, main threat Palm Beach south to the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades Models aren't all that enthused about strengthening, but the environment in the Gulf isn't half bad. Would not be surprised if Gordon over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 I’m hearing that this new hyper-advanced model, the CMC I think they’re calling it, looks interesting for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 The FV3 GFS at 18z has got to be the craziest run I've ever seen for a tropical system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: The FV3 GFS at 18z has got to be the craziest run I've ever seen for a tropical system.. Not sold on the 180 to head back to Africa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 So how we looking? Major threat to New England incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So how we looking? Major threat to New England incoming? Start boarding up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 55 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So how we looking? Major threat to New England incoming? I don't worry until James says it is OMINOUS! Like in August . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 So how we looking? Major threat to New England incoming?Dawn has Awoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Worst TS season in a long time. What a snooze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Worst TS season in a long time. What a snooze. 18z GFS was close to a SNE destroyer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 What's 1000 mi among weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 0z models trended toward a east coast hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 6z GFS is 895mb just off the Carolina coast holy****. 9 days out but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 06z GFS has Florence doing a loop off the outer banks as an sub 900mb monster. This model is embarrassing. Ultimately goes on to awaken the dawn. Last night's run had an Esther style loop south of NE. Anyway, only takeaway is that the models seem to be building the ridge before Florence can escape for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 *takes a hit of the 6z gfs at 312 hrs* yeah... that’s the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I also like the back end snows in the VT spine as it goes by. Nice touch GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 And the euro takes it into SC. At least finally something to track....maybe....as eps not that excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 54 minutes ago, Hoth said: 06z GFS has Florence doing a loop off the outer banks as an sub 900mb monster. This model is embarrassing. Ultimately goes on to awaken the dawn. Last night's run had an Esther style loop south of NE. Anyway, only takeaway is that the models seem to be building the ridge before Florence can escape for the time being. Pretty good track in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And the euro takes it into SC. At least finally something to track....maybe....as eps not that excited. Really? It looked to me like the ensembles largely eschewed the escape OTS. I thought that was a more menacing look for the east coast overall. Not that it matters at this long time horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty good track in Jan Sign me up! Deform heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Really? It looked to me like the ensembles largely eschewed the escape OTS. I thought that was a more menacing look for the east coast overall. Not that it matters at this long time horizon. The mean is not impressive, is what I was referring to. I haven’t looked at members, just not interested into the possibilities for another 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 The mean will never do well with the intensity. So toss that with regards to strength. The key is to see what the members are doing. Looked to me that a good amount of members are posing a SE US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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