MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm in for isolated spots of severe - it may look worse though given the wet ground - even 30mph winds could be pretty damaging in spots. I wonder if NWS will warn storms accordingly even if they are not meeting the official criteria. Almost certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Almost certainly. I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 48 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said: KDOX radar finally back up. 649 NOUS61 KAKQ 271355 FTMDOX Message Date: Jul 27 2018 13:58:54 KDOX WILL BE OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. Ellinwood is looking for an ENH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Frederick/Western Loudoun/Calvert/St. Mary's added to FFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. It is a really interesting situation where the ground impact potential is much more robust than the actual weather. Maybe somewhat akin to putting out a winter weather advisory for light snow because it'll come at rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It is a really interesting situation where the ground impact potential is much more robust than the actual weather. Maybe somewhat akin to putting out a winter weather advisory for light snow because it'll come at rush hour. I somewhat agree... but I don't think LWX will issue STW's for sub-severe winds unless they are around 50 mph or more. I understand where you and kmlwx are coming from, but doesn't LWX still have to follow the standards that are set for issuing a STW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Atmosphere definitely unstable. Seeing pileus clouds on top of one of the many cumulus clouds strewn about my backyard view out east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I somewhat agree... but I don't think LWX will issue STW's for sub-severe winds unless they are around 50 mph or more. I understand where you and kmlwx are coming from, but doesn't LWX still have to follow the standards that are set for issuing a STW? We've seen them warn for 30-40mph storms and list it as 60mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: We've seen them warn for 30-40mph storms and list it as 60mph gusts. That doesn't seem right though. I assume that there must have been pixels on radar or something that shows 60mph wind gusts or other radar proof for them to issue the warning. I don't think they can just get away with seeing 40 mph winds and issue warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That doesn't seem right though. I assume that there must have been pixels on radar or something that shows 60mph wind gusts or other radar proof for them to issue the warning. I don't think they can just get away with seeing 40 mph winds and issue warnings I'm not up on the latest guidelines. Yes, severe warnings mean something in particular (50kt/58mph). However, there is enough wiggle room in there that if they see anything on radar that indicates that those winds could even be potentially brought down, I'm sure they'll warn. Tree falls will also make verification easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm not up on the latest guidelines. Yes, severe warnings mean something in particular (50kt/58mph). However, there is enough wiggle room in there that if they see anything on radar that indicates that those winds could even be potentially brought down, I'm sure they'll warn. Tree falls will also make verification easier. Yeah I guess that's another question - if somebody gets their report of "MULTIPLE TREES DOWN" into the SPC reports - does that count as SVR verification if the winds were not measured or if they did not reach 58mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 That doesn't seem right though. I assume that there must have been pixels on radar or something that shows 60mph wind gusts or other radar proof for them to issue the warning. I don't think they can just get away with seeing 40 mph winds and issue warnings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Finally back in the country. Can we hold off the storms until after my connection lands back home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 The sky looks like it just wants to explode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Severe thunderstorm watch incoming for D.C and Baltimore and all of the eastern shore of MD and DE... Lots of billowing clouds out there. The atmosphere is a loaded potato. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Is that a hook in that warned cell in C VA? Or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Is that a hook in that warned cell in C VA? Or am I wrong? Nothing all that impressive on velocity scans. But that's an area that is known to have some enhancement for rotation in storms at times (near the river). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 OFB blasting N from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-015-033-043-047-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-085-091- 097-099-101-103-107-109-113-125-133-137-139-153-157-159-165-171- 177-179-187-193-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-840- 280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0314.180727T1750Z-180728T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CAROLINE CLARKE CULPEPER ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA FREDERICK GOOCHLAND GREENE HANOVER HIGHLAND KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUDOUN LOUISA MADISON NELSON NORTHUMBERLAND ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Looks like the cell west of Fredericksburg will get north of the 395 mixing bowl just in time for crush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 huh... N movement by this cell Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC061-153-683-685-271915- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0167.180727T1823Z-180727T1915Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 223 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Western Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 223 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Linton Hall, or 10 miles east of Warrenton, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Linton Hall, Bull Run, Haymarket, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, Gainesville, New Baltimore, Nokesville, Catlett, Calverton, Catharpin, Woolsey, Auburn, Casanova, Greenwich and Aden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 One storm heading right toward my house split perfectly into 2. Both shot in opposite directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormpc said: One storm heading right toward my house split perfectly into 2. Both shot in opposite directions. Hate when that happens because I don't turn on the sprinklers. Then the storm says psych! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Pardon the ugly warnings boxes but this one clearly has a hook on it too. Just warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pardon the ugly warnings boxes but this one clearly has a hook on it too. Just warned. It does have the TORNADO... POSSIBLE in the warning at the very bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Washington County cell might get a warning soon. There might be some weak rotation in it as well. Lots of lightning in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 about to hit the road soon for a little camping trip. looks like i might miss some of the fun activity in the next couple hours. the one cell by the 270 split is fairly tame (though i'm also getting fringed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, H2O said: OFB blasting N from it OFBs flying everywhere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 HRRR not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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