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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Remainder of July is averaging 80degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.5.   Should end July at  +1.7.       The full 8 days is 80/+3.

STS/TOR threats seem like a powder puff, as most likely time of arrival is after sunset and PoP never reaches categorical, even for plain rain by  LAMP.

Going to beach will depend on my Nowcast as of 1pm.  lol

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4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Great writeup OH ;)  

These high minimums and dewpoints have to stop. Setting high temp records based on minimums is like cheating and feeds the warminista agenda. 

Yea that makes sense. I agree. Ignore half the data to feed the coolista agenda. Why use actual science?

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea that makes sense. I agree. Ignore half the data to feed the coolista agenda. Why use actual science?

Sarcasmometer recalibration maybe B)  What I'm getting at is that it hasn't been overly hot during the day compared to previous warm periods, the same way that we've been setting winter records where the days haven't been 'warm' but the nights haven't been as cold. I do understand though that this is what melts ice caps and warms bodies of water and creates the warming environment around them. It feels like cheating though as I want to see the big departures at the high end rather than incremental changes at the low end.

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RWTT still shows an AN August everywhere (except PacificNW) and makes it the most AN here.   If models give in on the precipitation bonanza, it will be due to ridge over us that holds on and on.

Luckily by late August average is down about 4 degrees, since a +12 period is showing for last week of August.  I will be watching for a change in this output. 

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14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

RWTT still shows an AN August everywhere and makes it the most AN here.   If models give in on the precipitation bonanza, it will be due to ridge over us that holds on and on.

Luckily by late August average is down about 4 degrees, since a +12 period is showing for last week of August.  I will be watching for a change in this output. 

that's a big difference from the Euro and CFS which show cool weather in the nations's mid section and only the far west and our area/ New England are above normal.

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84/77....steamy

If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this summer I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close.

I’ll probably top out at 79.X, just like I fell short of 100 by 0.2 degrees on July 1st.

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15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

84/77....steamy

If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this season I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close.

I just ran the dew point numbers back to 1980. The 14 days of 75 degree or higher dew point maximums this month at JFK is the highest for July.

Greatest # of July 75 or greater maximum dew point days at JFK since 1980

#1...14 days....2018

#2...11 days....1995

#3...10 days....2017....1987

#4....8 days......1994....1983

#5....7 days......1999

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I just ran the dew point numbers back to 1980. The 14 days of 75 degree or higher dew point maximums this month at JFK is the highest for July.

Greatest # of July 75 or greater maximum dew point days at JFK since 1980

#1...14 days....2018

#2...11 days....1995

#3...10 days....2017....1987

#4....8 days......1994....1983

#5....7 days......1999

 

Wow, yet another record demolished in the 2010s era.

I’m also at 14 days of 75+ dews, with 3 of those days touching 78 (7/2, 7/3, and today).

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

84/77....steamy

If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this summer I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close.

I’ll probably top out at 79.X, just like I fell short of 100 by 0.2 degrees on July 1st.

I'll pass on that, nothing worse than record high dews.

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26 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Wow, yet another record demolished in the 2010s era.

I’m also at 14 days of 75+ dews, with 3 of those days touching 78 (7/2, 7/3, and today).

This new July record is following the August record since 1980 set in 2016.

Most August 75 degree or higher maximum dew point days at JFK since 1980

#1...14 days....2016

#2...12 days....1988...1984...1983

#3.....9 days....1999

#4.....7 days....2003...2001

#5.....6 days....2012...1998...1995

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sarcasmometer recalibration maybe B)  What I'm getting at is that it hasn't been overly hot during the day compared to previous warm periods, the same way that we've been setting winter records where the days haven't been 'warm' but the nights haven't been as cold. I do understand though that this is what melts ice caps and warms bodies of water and creates the warming environment around them. It feels like cheating though as I want to see the big departures at the high end rather than incremental changes at the low end.

I see what you are saying. A lot of people tend to forget or not recognize that high dews do sometimes limit the high temperatures too. If you notice that when we have these stretches of high dew points, we tend to not set many record high temperatures (although we tend to set plenty of record low temps). 

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I was out on the tennis court with my daughter a while ago and right around noon the clouds all of a sudden popped and started growing up quickly. At the same time the humidity jumped and the temp did too. It was like a cap had been lifted. Now it's mostly cloudy with dark clouds instead of this mornings puffy ones rather than mostly sunny and the air went stale and got heavy. 

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