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OUGrad05

April 13 Severe Threat - TX, OK, LA, ARK, KS, MO, IA

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Storms are now developing and intensifying se of Shreveport and moving n/ne.  I am assuming this is because of the LLJ.  New tor watch issued for much of southern Missouri.

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

FT Smith storm Now TOR warned

 

a

56 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR FRANKLIN  
COUNTY...  
          
AT 555 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF  
MULBERRY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

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Supercell W of Mountain View, AR (think 2/5/08 territory) has a troubling look on reflectivity. Also very strong inflow.

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9 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Yeah that Forman cell has the cleanest looking velocity couplet I’ve seen today. Probably a TOG. 

Confirmed tornado on the warning now, looks extremely impressive. 

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Confirmed tornado on the warning now, looks extremely impressive. 

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

ARC081-OKC089-132330-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0054.000000T0000Z-180413T2330Z/
Little River AR-McCurtain OK-
611 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LITTLE RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTIES...

At 610 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles southwest of
Foreman, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Foreman and Arkinda around 625 PM CDT

 

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more cells maturing over North LA with couplets ..one now t-storm warned with TOR possible wording..

 

so now we have the main line back in OK/Tx...the supercells on the OK/AR border ..and now maybe more Sups in north LA

 

I suspect until the main line catches up....the two lines of scattered Sups will continue to produce Possible Tornadoes

 

 

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

more cells maturing over North LA with couplets ..one now t-storm warned with TOR possible wording

 

Went up rather quickly, definitely rotation on that cell now and also to its east. 

 

Edit;  the one to the east is now Tornado Warned (this one probably isn't far behind) 

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

more cells maturing over North LA with couplets ..one now t-storm warned with TOR possible wording..

 

so now we have the main line back in OK/Tx...the supercells on the OK/AR border ..and now maybe more Sups in north LA

 

I suspect until the main line catches up....the two lines of scattered Sups will continue 

 

 

I read somewhere (maybe SPC) to expect multiple lines in the moderate risk area this evening.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
ARC081-133-140000-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-180414T0000Z/  
LITTLE RIVER AR-SEVIER AR-  
634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER AND CENTRAL SEVIER COUNTIES...  
      
AT 634 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINTHROP, OR NEAR  
HORATIO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
650 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  NORTHERN HOWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  
  
* AT 650 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCKESBURG, OR  
  NEAR DE QUEEN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  DIERKS AROUND 715 PM CDT.   
  UMPIRE AROUND 725 PM CDT.   
  ATHENS AROUND 730 PM CDT.   

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2 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Cell near Georgetown, LA is about to go too.

Weak rotation, strong outbounds are a function of sidelobe contamination. Solid look, but most likely contaminated velocities.

edit - next scan looks legit, and t-warned.

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2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Storms around Kansas City all look interesting 

Supercell near Gardner has some rotation and a definitive hook/notch. On a beeline to go straight through the heart of the metro. Hopefully it doesn't organize any further.

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2 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

Weak rotation, strong outbounds are a function of sidelobe contamination. Solid look, but most likely contaminated velocities.

edit - next scan looks legit, and t-warned.

Nice 

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Seeing the main QLCS take shape from C. Missouri down into C. Texas fairly quickly now.


.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0246
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Areas affected...for portions of west-central AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

   Valid 140006Z - 140030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

   SUMMARY...A significant tornado threat may increase and areas
   downstream from the Sevier County tornadic supercell ---including
   Montgomery and Yell counties--- are under an increasing tornado
   risk.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of tornadic activity over
   southwestern AR and northeast TX will continue to the northeast over
   the next 1-2 hours ahead of a north-northeast to south-southwest
   oriented band of thunderstorms.  The mesoscale environment
   immediately on the inflow side of the supercell is characterized as
   very moist with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees F.  Based on the
   wind profile from the Little Rock (LZK) VAD, around 450 m2/s2 0-1 km
   SRH is present---supportive of low-level mesocyclonegenesis and a
   tornado risk.  Similar thermodynamic profiles were sampled by the
   00Z SHV and LZK raobs (very moist through the troposphere with
   moderate buoyancy, 1600-1900 J/kg MLCAPE).  Given the strong
   low-level shear and ample buoyancy, the tornado risk may continue to
   increase over the next 30 minutes to 1-2 hours before the supercell
   becomes embedded within the eastward-moving convective band from the
   west.

   ..Smith.. 04/14/2018

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