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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’m still at 37/32 and dry as a bone. ZR is my least favorite weather phenomenon. 

We may luck out with today's precip staying well north and west and relatively mild temps. Will be interesting to see if much precip falls before it warms up tomorrow morning.

Edit: just started raining here

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Almost all pingers now with a little ZR mixed in. 28 degrees. Feel like we're colder than anticipated at the surface and definitely aloft which means more IP and less ZR. Fine be me. Still early though but well see what happens, 

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Almost all pingers now with a little ZR mixed in. 28 degrees. Feel like we're colder than anticipated at the surface and definitely aloft which means more IP and less ZR. Fine be me. Still early though but well see what happens, 

I think the NAM high res models had a pretty good handle on the thermal structure, at least to this point. And they were dumping a lot of sleet along the areas north of the Thruway throughout the night. Best case scenario (at least for the lake plain) if it holds up.

There is an area of heavier precip about to move into the Buffalo area. It will be interesting to see if that can maintain as sleet or if the (presumably) larger droplet sizes won't be able to completely freeze before reaching the surface.

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2 minutes ago, coh said:

I think the NAM high res models had a pretty good handle on the thermal structure, at least to this point. And they were dumping a lot of sleet along the areas north of the Thruway throughout the night. Best case scenario (at least for the lake plain) if it holds up.

There is an area of heavier precip about to move into the Buffalo area. It will be interesting to see if that can maintain as sleet or if the (presumably) larger droplet sizes won't be able to completely freeze before reaching the surface.

Checked webcams over the Niagara Peninsula and Niagara Falls area where those heavier echos are and the ground is white, very white, almost looks like snow. Looks like some pretty heavy sleet... have a feeling this could bust but not from lack of QPF or temps to warm but temps too cold (aloft)... in mid April, who woulda thought? 

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Looks like round 1 is nearly over for ROC.  Further west still has a couple hours to go.  Looks like a long lull before anymore overunning develops.  You can all thank me for not going to Buffalo.  I knew if I stayed back we would be spared.  

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3 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

Freezing rain here and icing up quick. Didn't realize it was doing anything out till i almost when flying in my ass taking my dog out lol. 

How'd you fly IN your ass? 

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

No way this verifies here. Radar very unimpressive and what is falling is all sleet. 

Yup, I'm calling this one dunzo just 2 hours in.  haha.  It's a blessing really but the mets are going to get beat up hard for this one.  People hate false alarms.  

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Delta give me a break. Has not even started really. That stream of moisture is going so come over us and stall most of night.

That stream of moisture is nowhere near as robust or deep as the models had progged at this time.  Im wondering if the deep convection over the south was poorly modeled or caused convective feedback issues.  I don't know how you look at that radar and don't see issues with precip.  We are going to need some overunning to develop right on top of us (and soon) to get anywhere near the outputs.  

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10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yup, I'm calling this one dunzo just 2 hours in.  haha.  It's a blessing really but the mets are going to get beat up hard for this one.  People hate false alarms.  

Its a tough one. Numerous people I told about a possible ice storm/sleet storm said they'll believe it when they see it and they weren't altering plans. They said "Its mid april in Toronto, all we will see if a couple snowflakes and a cold rain, winter is over" 

I wonder how this cold air will impact tomorrow. 

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20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yup, I'm calling this one dunzo just 2 hours in.  haha.  It's a blessing really but the mets are going to get beat up hard for this one.  People hate false alarms.  

They may have been right to slow walk the headlines when those of us in the peanut gallery were howling about model runs showing the apocalypse. Playing up higher chances of more ZR this afternoon when there was still ambiguity was where they seem to have gone wrong.

This is such an anomalous event that it’s no surprise that forecasters have made a mess of this one.

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32 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta give me a break. Has not even started really. That stream of moisture is going so come over us and stall most of night.

If you want to believe this is going to be anywhere close to those model outputs you were showing earlier your going to be throughly disappointed. If we see .25"  of ice I'd be shocked. This is almost all sleet and light at that..

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NWS sticking to their guns for the 9pm update...

The ice storm remains on track this evening. While there has been a
bit more sleet to start off with across Niagara Frontier, all
indications are that we will see a transition back to freezing rain
there after about midnight. This will still give plenty of time for
significant ice accumulations, and likely numerous downed trees and
powerlines when combined with the gusty northeast winds of 35 to 45
mph which have already been observed this evening.

00Z KBUF sounding shows an incredible inversion from nearly -8C to
+8C between 2.5kft and 4.5kft. With this sounding, its no surprise to
see sleet reports from Buffalo northward to Lake Ontario. Meanwhile
slightly more shallow cold air is in place just south and east of
Buffalo with most reports predominately freezing rain, including the
Rochester area. As the main low pressure system approaches, this
will start to erode the deep layer of cold air from south to north
after midnight tonight. As this occurs, the far Southern Tier will
start to change over from Freezing Rain to Rain, meanwhile the
Niagara Frontier will change from predominately sleet to freezing
rain. The warmer air will arrive last across the North Country, not
until later Sunday night.




.

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16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Anybody see this story about Lake Michigan yesterday?  Interesting phenomenon.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/lake_michigan_pier_completely.html

Thats cool to see a report of a real one.  The buffalo news had a really nice article about these events last summer.  Check it out.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/25/scientists-mull-new-great-lakes-tsunami-warning-system/

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Lots of moisture to come...just look at the plume moving through KY to OH...round 2 will be interesting. Hoping to be spared ZR and power outages...

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