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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And this was a fine example of all the model p-type algorithms failing when the warmth is so high up.  

No matter the vendor or product, they tried to code this as snow.  Glad I stayed conservative as may make it to my 2-4" range on the low side.  

This is why we look at soundings and call them clown maps. Yet they are posted so much in here.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Spent a little time between Yahoo and Google ... I was trying to find a proper, and vetted (as in really true), list of coldest MLB games ever played.  I didn't have a lot of luck, but I did find that some web-sites out there kept track per their stadium.

It appears this game day will be in the top 10 coldest ever played when the first pitch is thrown in a little over an hour.

However, what data does exist, does really do much for the 'harshness' of those occurrences... It would be a bit more subjective, over course, but sufficed it is to say... today, in that "cold"ron of concrete and iron known as Fenway, having the mass of the audience actually facing the NE mind you... this would have to rank I think in the top five just eyeballing against other scenarios. 

But again, if anyone can provide/find a better list by all means.   A vision of air temperature and dew point in that 34/31 range, while snitz's and starts of occasional flurries, while winds puffing in at occasional 20 mph face smacks...?  That's a pretty uniquely horrific setting for an activity more typically associated to the "boys of summer" -

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Spent a little time between Yahoo and Google ... I was trying to find a proper, and vetted (as in really true), list of cold MLB games ever played.  I didn't have a lot of luck, but I did find that some web-sites out there kept track per their stadium.

It appears this game day will be in the top 10 coldest ever played when the first pitch is thrown in a little over an hour.

However, what data does exist, does really do much for the 'harshness' of those occurrences...  It would be a bit more subjective, over course, but sufficed it is to say... today, in that "cold"ron of concrete and iron, with the mass of the audience facing the NE mind you... this would have to rank I think in the top five just eyeballing against other scenarios. 

But again, if anyone can provide/find a better list by all means.   Could 34/31 with snitz and and occasional flurries, with winds puffin in at occasional 20 mph face smacks...  that's a pretty uniquely horrific setting for an activity associated to the "boys of summer" -

Atl @ Col 4/23/2013 is recognized as the coldest MLB game I believe. Game 1 starting temp was 23F. There's been 10 other games with a starting temp of 30F or less (at least documented).

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Atl @ Col 4/23/2013 is recognized as the coldest MLB game I believe. Game 1 starting temp was 23F. There's been 10 other games with a starting temp of 30F or less (at least documented).

 Yeah, I found that one ... but, I was kinda hoping it there would be properly formatted list ... like that one is obviously #1 ...then #2 is so-and-so...and this one today is #5 or something like that. 

And also to re-iterate... what were the other parameters they faced in that cold and so forth... I mean, if it was dead calm with high April sun, it may not be as shocking to the system as sitting in a metal seat with slat gray skies spitting occasional sleet and flurries, with 20 mph winds in the face.  I'd take the 23 high sun no wind scenario over that in a heartbeat ... But I don't know ... just sayn'

 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 Yeah, I found that one ... but, I was kinda hoping it there would be properly formatted list ... like that one is obviously #1 ...then #2 is so-and-so...and this one today is #5 or something like that. 

 

The Sox game today?

Here's a list I found online. It looks like it's from Baseball Reference, but I'm not sure how they got to this page. Maybe Will knows.

5e3OfS3.png

Everything colder than that 23F game is an error.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The Sox game today?

Here's a list I found online. It looks like it's from Baseball Reference, but I'm not sure how they got to this page. Maybe Will knows.

Everything colder than that 23F game is an error.

Not buying the 12 degrees in August?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

So in these transition months we generally average about 10F warmer on a monthly basis. If I'm sitting at 26F with IPZR at solar noon April 15th, it makes me believe it's possible to pull off a midday <= 32F ZR/R in the beginning of May since 15 days gets you about another 5F on average. Obviously we've snowed in May before, but that is generally with the right dynamics, an ULL, heavy precip, etc. Is there anything in the climo record in May with subfreezing CAD and ZR?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So in these transition months we generally average about 10F warmer on a monthly basis. If I'm sitting at 26F with IPZR at solar noon April 15th, it makes me believe it's possible to pull off a midday <= 32F ZR/R in the beginning of May since 15 days gets you about another 5F on average. Obviously we've snowed in May before, but that is generally with the right dynamics, an ULL, heavy precip, etc. Is there anything in the climo record in May with subfreezing CAD and ZR?

Yeah I feel like a snowstorm right now would be easier to pull off than this mixed precipitation.  Heck we can get a mid-April snowstorm at 32-34F and heavy precip.  But to have steady -ZRPL at temps in the 20s seems like it would be more rare than a 12" blue bomb.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Algos FTL. 

AWT. 

I'd bet that some of the euro algos are just looking at H7 and H85 and cannot "see" the warm layer in between. 

Going conservative within several weeks of Memorial day is usually a good bet, unless you're estimating how many hot weiners Steve will feed the dogs by the fire pit.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one is thinking about skiing now though. As Freak said resorts are deserted.

Thursday looks like real deal legit 

Lol no sh it but there are people skiing right now all over the open mountains.with midwinter conditions on April 15th , it is very notable hence my post. People actually live outside of CT

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this could actually do like a Jan 1994 deal where it ZR/PL's out of an elevated warm layer and we do these packing foam grains off the ocean underneath.

 

actually ... it doesn't look like much other than this ocean gunk is happenin'

Cool late season meteorology.

Beats the humid 87 that DC had.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol no sh it but there are people skiing right now all over the open mountains.with midwinter conditions on April 15th , it is very notable hence my post. People actually live outside of CT

Only local die hards. You aren’t getting people making long trips up to ski . Not in Napril when thoughts are on baseball, lawns, outdoor sports etc 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Wish we were here. Wow 

  

Weather Service Green Bay WI
1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

WIZ022-038>040-048>050-073-074-151945-
Door-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...HISTORIC APRIL SNOWSTORM CONTINUES TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...

Radar indicated a large band of moderate to heavy snow across much
of northeast Wisconsin. This band of snow will continue through
mid afternoon, then gradually taper off to light snow or light
freezing drizzle late this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3
inches per hour are expected in the heavy snow bands. Northeast
winds gusting to 35 to 50 mph will create significant areas of
blowing and drifting snow and may cause some tree damage and
sporadic power outages.

Motorist can expect widespread visibilities of a quarter of a
mile or less through mid afternoon, and at times down to near
zero due to the heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
accumulations through late evening will be in the 5 to 10 inch
range on top of what already has fallen.

This is a historic April snowstorm that is expected to produce
15 to 30 inches across much of the area with locally higher
amounts.

Extremely difficult travel conditions will continue into this
evening. Travel is not recommended, except in the case of an
emergency. If you must travel, take adequate precautions to ensure
you remain safe if you become stranded. Make sure your vehicles
tires, battery, lights, defrosters and windshield wipers are in
good working order before beginning your trip. Make sure the
gasoline tank is full before crossing open country. Be sure to
take along a flashlight, blankets, food, and water. If you become
stranded, remain with your vehicle.
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