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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just Jan 2016...lol Oh how fortunate we were then to just have a totally smooth ride to epicness! But this...par for the course when it comes to tracking in the MA!!

Always exclude all nino events during a non nino. They are always in a class of their own. 2016 takes the cake with long tracks on op models but even Feb 2010 wasn't far behind and models have gone through several upgrades since then. 

The vast majority of our events are much less forgiving on the modeling side. There are countless discussions of d7+ total fails. Countless d4-7 morph jobs into things that were never discussed (works both ways good and bad). And countless under d4 disasters with plenty of success stories to keep the game fun. 

This particular storm has actually been very well modeled. Look when this thread started...almost a week ago. The ups and downs and morphs are business as usual but hitting the short range with legit potentail is often fleeting but here we are. 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our region can do well with these laterally moving deals. There are many similar stripes in the past. I mean yea, it can fail south. I'm not saying that is off the table but in this specific case it sure doesn't feel like one of those. We're right in the range where missing north and/or all rain punches my yard right in the gonads.  Sure doesn't feel like one of those either. So here we are...chewing on an underwhelming 18z gfs run inside of 3 days. When haven't we with ANY storm in the past (hit or miss)? 

Something i have noticed over the years is that these waves running west to East end up being further north than modeled. More times than not i remember getting screwed because of being on the South fringe  and bouncing north at the last second. I would assume it's from blocking being modeled too strong further out in time. IMHO  I think we are sitting in a pretty good spot at the moment. Last week we saw a north trend on all models inside 48 hours ( other than the gfs lol). The problem last week was that the trend started with the snow being at the VA/NC border. This could be a legit storm even without the second wave. Looks like 1"+ qpf is possible. I'll will take my chances with that..lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Something i have noticed over the years is that these waves running west to East end up being further north than modeled. More times than not i remember getting screwed because of being on the South fringe  and bouncing north at the last second. I would assume it's from blocking being modeled too strong further out in time. IMHO  I think we are sitting in a pretty good spot at the moment. Last week we saw a north trend on all models inside 48 hours ( other than the gfs lol). The problem last week was that the trend started with the snow being at the VA/NC border. This could be a legit storm even without the second wave. Looks like 1"+ qpf is possible. I'll will take my chances with that..lol

I agree. It's an easy bet and that's far from always good thing becuase I've seen enough south pa stripes with wet mud in my yard to fill a scrapbook. 

This is where good memory helps weed through the noise. If this was DJF I would be more concerned with south problems. March (especially late) typically has a good dynamic punch with warm air advection stuff. The northern fringe pac man effect isn't as much as a problem compared to met winter. 

18z gefs should get everyone's attention with wave 2. Let's go 2 for 2. We've suffered and repented all freekin year. Our souls deserve some spirit. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
Just now, supernovasky said:

14 members give my area, Gaithersburg, warning snow. Hard to be upset with that. Best GEFS in a long time. Also interestingly, the operational COMPLETELY diverges from the GEFS.

the ops shows more separation between the 2 waves than the gefs would imply.  it could be those amounts are impacted by the increase in coverage for wave 2.  i think we want to see that one continue to trend in the right direction.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I went out on an unusual limb and made a definitive call with the last 2 euro runs and got it right. I'll do the same with the gfs. 0z will erase the suicidal tendencies that 18z just unearthed. 

You predicted the gefs too lol. We're on the edge of ensemble vs op use but...given the gefs group think issues you have to think the gefs divergence indicates we just saw a worst case scenario outlier from the op. Not eating the op isn't within the spectrum of possibilities. It is and it's our fail option. But it's not the most likely outcome imo and in the gefs opinion. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty simple. Mostly agrees with the op with wave 1. Wave 2 is going through a small but noticeable resurrection. D7-10 has a late March arctic boundary with potential for a rain to snow event or even a legit coastal. Very impressive late March run. Might be the best I've ever seen honestly. Climo door is not being allowed to close. We know all the caveats and location and blah blah blah. 

You’ve been fantastic this year guy. I tip my hat to you. You give this site a good name. I’m half an eye in today as I’ve been bringing firewood home for next season and just look for your posts when I’m not as active. Gives me all I need to know. I hope this one hits you flush.

I don’t care if I get fringed. You deserve it. Keep it up. 

 

Ok ok well I do care a bit....:P

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You predicted the gefs too lol. We're on the edge of ensemble vs op use but...given the gefs group think issues you have to think the gefs divergence indicates we just saw a worst case scenario outlier from the op. Not eating the op isn't within the spectrum of possibilities. It is and it's our fail option. But it's not the most likely outcome imo and in the gefs opinion. 

Even 0z tonight isn't make or break so the level of fail if there's a fail at all is still open for many discussions. If 0z looks good for wave 1 we can probably rule out no precip. Lol. I'll go that far...haha

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