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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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Yea mappy is gonna jackpot.


Warrior Bigfoot up in Cecil in a good spot too. I’m heading up that way on Wednesday. I’m off, so I’m chasing this thing. I’m thinking Advisory for Baltimore county in general with Northern Baltimore in line for warning upgrade. I like Warning for Harford and Cecil. Definitely another catch people off guard type storm. Not sure anyone throwing up decent numbers on the news outlets. Could be wrong.


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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Warrior Bigfoot up in Cecil in a good spot too. I’m heading up that way on Wednesday. I’m off, so I’m chasing this thing. I’m thinking Advisory for Baltimore county in general with Northern Baltimore in line for warning upgrade. I like Warning for Harford and Cecil. Definitely another catch people off guard type storm. Not sure anyone throwing up decent numbers on the news outlets. Could be wrong.


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I'm thinking advisory for Carroll and southern Baltimore/Harford.  

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As much as I'd like to jackpot here in Havre de Grace - we are still getting thing back together after that wind storm...that was much worse here than during Sandy a few years ago.  They are still cleaning up Harford County - I can see a bunch of heavy wet snow causing havoc up here with the already weakened trees.

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11 minutes ago, yoda said:

They look slightly west of the OP... which is good, no?

What is even more encouraging is that that many/most our clustered on the west side of the mean. Good chance that means we see a further adjustment west of the track on the 00z op. Which would be not so good for those on the eastern shore but maybe good for us as we see the precip field adjust west as well/

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Your gut saying happy hour NAMing is forthcoming?  You and I are right on the cusp of something decent. Fingers crossed. 

Hopeful but just saw the 15z SREFs and they weren't any different than 9z and still not impressive and it generally seems to predict what the NAM will do, so we shall see.

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS has 35-45% chance of 6”+ for mappy and Harford county. 

 

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea mappy is gonna jackpot.

you guys are getting me too excited.

Unrelated, State College snow map is funny. If you are on the east side of 83 in York, you get 6" the west side gets 2-4" 

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30 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Warrior Bigfoot up in Cecil in a good spot too. I’m heading up that way on Wednesday. I’m off, so I’m chasing this thing. I’m thinking Advisory for Baltimore county in general with Northern Baltimore in line for warning upgrade. I like Warning for Harford and Cecil. Definitely another catch people off guard type storm. Not sure anyone throwing up decent numbers on the news outlets. Could be wrong.


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PS, Warrior Bigfoot is now @T. August and yes, he looks to do well. 

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/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.180307T0900Z-180307T2100Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
311 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant wet snow possible. There is the potential for
  5 inches or more.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is the possibility of difficult
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
  Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

WEaker heights in front at 35 but that may not matter. Looks as if we are getting quicker interaction between the primary and the coastal. 

at 39 its east and not as strong of 12z.  I think the initial height drop did us no favors in getting the coastal going sooner.

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There's the watch: Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford

Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant wet snow possible. There is the potential for
  5 inches or more.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is the possibility of difficult
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
  Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

at 39 its east and not as strong of 12z.  I think the initial height drop did us no favors in getting the coastal going sooner.

Better tilt in the trough might try the late save for or NE MD peeps.

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Really starting to see everything come together between hrs 39-45. Jet streak entering Mid Atlantic with strong ascent through left exit region. Precip will likely explode over NE MD to SE PA. Going to be another solid hit for that area. Some snow trying to breakout to SW as well with the 500 evolution. Got started slightly later, but should still yield a pretty good hit for NE crew.


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