Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

Yes. Agree.

[weatherwiz]

This is sexy

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

Typically, You need both streams, But generally, The southern s/w originates out of the gulf of mexico, This one didn't totally fit that bill.

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

Agree the problem was trusting the NAM, but like you said, it's interesting that the Euro is consistently showing beefy totals. We'll have to see what happen, but my expectation is 12-18" here. I'd be happy if we break the 20" mark.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Agree the problem was trusting the NAM, but like you said, it's interesting that the Euro is consistently showing beefy totals. We'll have to see what happen, but my expectation is 12-18" here. I'd be happy if we break the 20" mark.

Your area over to southern maine has been pretty consistent across the guidance for jack areas.

[ursa99]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10976&y=3147&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here it comes...

[TalcottWx]

New HRRR is flipping BOS around 5-6pm. Earlier today it was 10pm-11pm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think all of Southern New England sees at least 3" of snow with the exception being Nantucket

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Typically, You need both streams, But generally, The southern s/w originates out of the gulf of mexico, This one didn't totally fit that bill.

Exactly - when the NAM schools the globals is when there is a significant convective component from the deep south pumping heights on the east coast.

[Berlin1926]

Living in Connecticut gives me whiplash.

[dryslot]

NW zones getting a trim after the 12z runs today.................

 

[#NoPoles]

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

No way Jose

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

It's also been snowing from the onset in many area this time, so better antecedent.

Certainly still a concern southeast, though.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

No way Jose

HRRR may be a bit early. It may be snowing but at 34F for awhile on the water. I would temper acc right at the water. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

HRRR may be a bit early. It may be snowing but at 34F for awhile on the water. I would temper acc right at the water. 

Thanks, Maz....squeaky scooter.

[weatherwiz]

Look at these MUcape values just to the south...along with 7.5 lapse rates and 200-300 J of -12C to -18C CAPE!!!!!!!!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Maz....squeaky scooter.

LOL, it's true though.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Any euro QPF maps for EMa

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL, it's true though.

I'll bet the shore scrapes 6".

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR may be a bit early. It may be snowing but at 34F for awhile on the water. I would temper acc right at the water. 

Temper this 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Any euro QPF maps for EMa

sorry on Mobile, lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet the shore scrapes 6".

Could be more in spots. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Could be more in spots. 

Yea, I mean at least...I'm 6-12" there.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

sorry on Mobile, lol

Juicy thank you

Now wether to watch in Nashua or Andover

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

You have a bit of latitude on Upton, you know...

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

sorry on Mobile, lol

But, but, how did you see that if you are on mobile?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be more in spots. 

Is Raynham/Taunton  Looking like snow by eve

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR may be a bit early. It may be snowing but at 34F for awhile on the water. I would temper acc right at the water. 

Yeah... is def sell on the 12-15 amounts.

Wouldnt be surprised if someone in like Mansfield saw a foot though.

doesnt really even matter, anyone who gets over 6”.... it’s high impact 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is Raynham/Taunton  Looking like snow by eve

I believe so.

[Ginx snewx]

relax Dylan, once the CCB blows up and at night too the snow will rapidly accumulate