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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Let’s hope that it is finally our turn !

Count on it. I'll be back from my west coast turn by then...lol

I purposely went west to avoid what appeared to be two chances at epic snowstorms only for them to fizzle into what they did. Once I'm back in PA, the snow gods will get even with me for leaving and dump copious quantities of white powder for all (but me) to enjoy.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

and.....now......

Feel 

OLD!!

thx buddy....:P

I wish I was older so I could remember that storm more vividly. Actually that might be about the only reason I'd ever wish to be older hahaha. 

For now we have pretty decent agreement on the models for that potential storm around Mar 20th-21st. It had looked a few days ago like we were going to have some kind of a warmup toward the weekend but that certainly doesn't look like that any more. We maintain pretty ample high heights over the top and below normal heights across the whole Lower 48, which should favor below normal temps and a suppressed storm track. So the setup is definitely there for a potential event. We just did a half-decent March 20th snow event back in 2015 so we can still winter just fine if we have the right setup in place. 

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2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Next week's storm started the inevitable move north on the overnight model runs. Meh. We'll see what happens i guess. 

EPS/GEFS still looks decent to me.  GEPS natsomuch. 

I'll throw you my rubber ducky life preserver if you need it....lmk.

 

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49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

EPS/GEFS still looks decent to me.  GEPS natsomuch. 

I'll throw you my rubber ducky life preserver if you need it....lmk.

 

They do...but even they have trended north. We went from being on the northern edge of snow to the southern edge in 24 hours. 7 days out that's not a good thing. 

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@canderson there wasn't any flooding with '93. as others mentioned it was damn cold. The snow ended up like cement. At the time our building was on north 6th street (old 1 story, flat roof)  and it sat very close to the road. When we went in to plow/shovel it was about 10PM. There was so much snow i couldn't even see the door to the front office. I got out of the truck and climbed up the snow bank and stood on the roof :D I had to shovel down to get in the front door which took me 2 hours. when i went in all the ceiling tile were laying on the floor. The next day we actually made snow ramps up to our roof and walked our snow blowers up to get rid of all the snow on the roof. Somewhere there is pictures of me, my mustache and eye brows were solid ice. It honestly felt like i shoveled snow for a month straight, round the clock.  I Shoveled at work, i had to shovel my own house and then then shoveled fire hydrants and roofs all through our town. Everyone hated snow after that, i was in heaven B)

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8 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

They do...but even they have trended north. We went from being on the northern edge of snow to the southern edge in 24 hours. 7 days out that's not a good thing. 

Yep, Im with ya.  As were 6 days out, and after the movement we saw with this last dud (locally speaking), i'm just playing on potential, nothing more.

Pattern suggests we have a little more time, and like I said yesterday, I'm sorta done parsing through every op run to see what can/will go wrong (for this year anyway-or if we get something trending inside 48).  After mid next week, NAO/AO heads into + terriitory and PNA goes -.  As EPO is only one on our side(ish), my guess is that we will likely be "callin it" shortly thereafter.  

 

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2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

@canderson there wasn't any flooding with '93. as others mentioned it was damn cold. The snow ended up like cement. At the time our building was on north 6th street (old 1 story, flat roof)  and it sat very close to the road. When we went in to plow/shovel it was about 10PM. There was so much snow i couldn't even see the door to the front office. I got out of the truck and climbed up the snow bank and stood on the roof :D I had to shovel down to get in the front door which took me 2 hours. when i went in all the ceiling tile were laying on the floor. The next day we actually made snow ramps up to our roof and walked our snow blowers up to get rid of all the snow on the roof. Somewhere there is pictures of me, my mustache and eye brows were solid ice. It honestly felt like i shoveled snow for a month straight, round the clock.  I Shoveled at work, i had to shovel my own house and then then shoveled fire hydrants and roofs all through our town. Everyone hated snow after that, i was in heaven B)

I remember how for a couple weeks, I drove on the "white cement" to work and like anothrerman suggested, the "potholes" were crazy.  What an anomalous event it was.  Truely one of my all time fav's.

  

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12z runs don't look too bad on the 20-21st storm, Euro and Canadian going for a miller B look on a primary that tries to squeeze a bit too north for our liking.. specifically the Euro. As such the Euro op was the warmest solution but not too far off thermally as northern PA still had a pretty solid snowfall. Actually, the Euro EPS control run was even farther west and pretty much a cutter. Canadian still had a decent snowfall across a good portion of C-PA. GFS maintains the primary low staying south of PA and was thus the snowiest solution for the region. I def approve of the 12z GFS run overall haha.. if it's going to be colder than normal for the rest of the month we might as well take advantage of it. I'm not too worried about track changes right now. It's there on pretty much all guidance.  We all saw what the models did with the last one for several days.. going from big time snowstorm in this region to a passing shower in the Gulf of Mexico to eventually coming back enough in the last 48 hours to provide yet another big time nor'easter.  

GFS also snuck precip (mostly snow) into portions of southern PA over the weekend with the system preceding the one we're watching. It's on it's own right now as the rest of guidance fizzles it and otherwise keeps any precip south. Might have to watch trends on that one to see if that becomes more of a mainstream idea. At any rate, it was supposed to warm up by this weekend and we now see that it's going to be tempered significantly. The established cold pattern is winning right now. I'd bet on a suppressed storm track.. but we shall see if it'll be enough to finally run a snow swath squarely across our region. 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

12z runs don't look too bad on the 20-21st storm, Euro and Canadian going for a miller B look on a primary that tries to squeeze a bit too north for our liking.. specifically the Euro. As such the Euro op was the warmest solution but not too far off thermally as northern PA still had a pretty solid snowfall. Actually, the Euro EPS control run was even farther west and pretty much a cutter. Canadian still had a decent snowfall across a good portion of C-PA. GFS maintains the primary low staying south of PA and was thus the snowiest solution for the region. I def approve of the 12z GFS run overall haha.. if it's going to be colder than normal for the rest of the month we might as well take advantage of it. I'm not too worried about track changes right now. It's there on pretty much all guidance.  We all saw what the models did with the last one for several days.. going from big time snowstorm in this region to a passing shower in the Gulf of Mexico to eventually coming back enough in the last 48 hours to provide yet another big time nor'easter.  

GFS also snuck precip (mostly snow) into portions of southern PA over the weekend with the system preceding the one we're watching. It's on it's own right now as the rest of guidance fizzles it and otherwise keeps any precip south. Might have to watch trends on that one to see if that becomes more of a mainstream idea. At any rate, it was supposed to warm up by this weekend and we now see that it's going to be tempered significantly. The established cold pattern is winning right now. I'd bet on a suppressed storm track.. but we shall see if it'll be enough to finally run a snow swath squarely across our region. 

I approve as well.

 

snku_024h.us_ne.png

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I guess karma is a biotch...

I'm stuck in California until either tomorrow or Friday before I can get a load back to PA. It's looking like my arrival back into the Commonwealth will be perfectly timed with the arrival of this storm. 

I thought I was being slick by heading to the southwest to avoid the previous two storms. Now this one may be coming and I won't be able to avoid it...

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

That map...ugh. Horrible. Hopefully this comes back south enough to get Clearfield and us.

The latest runs of the EPS & GEFS look good for most of CTP for next week. About half of both of these model’s ensemble members give CTP at least a few inches of snow. They both track a low into the Ohio Valley which then transfers to the VA Capes.

I think we could get a good front end dump of snow & then it all depends on the final track of the secondary coastal to see if this could deliver more snow to us.

There is still plenty of time & I think we will see a lot of shifting back & forth until the final track locks in this weekend.

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest runs of the EPS & GEFS look good for most of CTP for next week. About half of both of these model’s ensemble members give CTP at least a few inches of snow. They both track a low into the Ohio Valley which then transfers to the VA Capes.

I think we could get a good front end dump of snow & then it all depends on the final track of the secondary coastal to see if this could deliver more snow to us.

There is still plenty of time & I think we will see a lot of shifting back & forth until the final track locks in this weekend.

Yeah, the models are jumping literally hundreds of miles with each new run. Impossible to guess what the final outcome will be at this point. Also, it now seems like our best chance might come from a trailing wave sometime around the end of next week. 

At this rate we'll be tracking in May. I don't mind. 

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12 minutes ago, anotherman said:

These snow showers might be interesting today.

if they make it over the "hills".  l'd be fine w/ it and hope so.

 

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Dont look now....but the 12z GFS/ICON are about to put a beatdown on CTP.

Next Tues-Wed still looks interesting to say the least.

 

 

 

Keepin hope alive since fr-eveer

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9 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS snows for 2 days on LSV...Tuesday to Thursday. Too funny. 

You can add the CMC to the Tuesday's suite slamajamma.....

 

see what i did there??  :)

 

 

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Friend at work said trucking companies have started rerouting drivers for next Tues-Thur to avoid PA. I don't think that's actually true because 1) it's so far away and 2) you can't really avoid PA ... 

 

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29 minutes ago, canderson said:

Friend at work said trucking companies have started rerouting drivers for next Tues-Thur to avoid PA. I don't think that's actually true because 1) it's so far away and 2) you can't really avoid PA ... 

 

And of course I got my load information. Pick up tomorrow in Tulare and Riverside with a Wednesday delivery at Wegmans up on 81 near Frackville. 

Like I said. Karma. I tried to get away from the snow, and the worst of them all will hit right as I get back in the state... :( :angry:

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48 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

AM throwing out a 1958 analogy. That got my attention real quick. 

I guess I should know that one......

but I AM too young for that one!  Lol

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