• Member Statistics

    15,535
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ransom
    Newest Member
    ransom
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


He’s got a lot of reason to be concerned. That’s exactly what my forecast would be at this lead. I’m a student of his. Cut from a similar cloth and style of forecasting. I’ll be a little more aggressive with calls, but his clientele base is the public, so tough to go all out.


.

 

Thanks for the writup bud. Yeah he’s going to ride the line and especially after last weeks shafting I don’t blame him. This one seems to have a little more play room though for the LSV. 

Just hoping for a good transfer...and a stall off ocmd. Would be awesome if it verified. We’d be raked in CCB. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


He’s got a lot of reason to be concerned. That’s exactly what my forecast would be at this lead. I’m a student of his. Cut from a similar cloth and style of forecasting. I’ll be a little more aggressive with calls, but his clientele base is the public, so tough to go all out.


.

 

I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down.

We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed.

He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Way too many moving parts. But at least two chances to get it done.


.

That’s Killer B’s for ya. Lots moving and plenty of ways to get stung. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure why and unlike the rest of this season but a bunch of guys i know ( non weather weenies) are really chatting about the "big one" next week. Not sure where they're getting their info. I know 1 guys who went and even refilled his big salt spreader on the back of his truck. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Not sure why and unlike the rest of this season but a bunch of guys i know ( non weather weenies) are really chatting about the "big one" next week. Not sure where they're getting their info. I know 1 guys who went and even refilled his big salt spreader on the back of his truck. 

easy to like/copy/paste or retweet....thats my guess. 

I just talked to a snowmobile bud and he's following some guy on FBook.  Said that he's having fun cause after a long friendship w/ me he's "learning the lingo".  

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down.

We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed.

He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. 

The primary went too far north and those prolonged SE winds (with little CAD support) were a big concern for Lancaster County. And turned out to be the big issue.

 

Even in January or February we could have changed over to sleet. Heck, I had 5 hours of sleet in 2003 (PD2) while MDT was reporting pillows, and still wound up with 2’.

 

Harrisburg has better in-situ CAD than further East.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down.
We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed.
He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. 


The MU weather page will forever be bookmarked on my computer. I learned so much from Eric and he’s a great person in general. Easily one of the best forecasters I’ve ever seen and learned from. He knows his PA weather like no one else.


.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much to Voyager's chagrin? I'm panicking and I'm still sitting in Tulare, CA. 

I'm trying to figure the best way to get to Frackville with least impact. I'll get back into PA sometime on Tuesday, so right now do I run 80 to Hazleton and 81 south, or do I run the Pike to Carlise and 81 north???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


The MU weather page will forever be bookmarked on my computer. I learned so much from Eric and he’s a great person in general. Easily one of the best forecasters I’ve ever seen and learned from. He knows his PA weather like no one else.


.

 

Although I some times "hate" him for what he says....it really is hard to argue with what he puts out, and his verification score has to be pretty close to the top of the met pile.  Will be anxious to see the evolution over the weekend.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Horst update:

 "The storm track is a bit uncertain (as of Friday morning) but I expect a track over us or just to our south...which means wet snow for for central and northern PA and a rain-snow mix across the southern counties. It's way too early to talk accumulations, but higher terrain locations could certainly get some measurable snowfall, especially under the cover of darkness Tuesday night."

So it certainly appears he's favoring a storm track much farther north than models are currently showing. 

Something's gonna give...cause Horst doesn't sound that enthused even for our area, yet right now the peeps are getting all excited down in the DC/MD area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Horst update:

 "The storm track is a bit uncertain (as of Friday morning) but I expect a track over us or just to our south...which means wet snow for for central and northern PA and a rain-snow mix across the southern counties. It's way too early to talk accumulations, but higher terrain locations could certainly get some measurable snowfall, especially under the cover of darkness Tuesday night."

So it certainly appears he's favoring a storm track much farther north than models are currently showing. 

Something's gonna give...cause Horst doesn't sound that enthused even for our area, yet right now the peeps are getting all excited down in the DC/MD area. 

He's gotta be thinking the inevitable "north shift" is in play.  NWS has southern locals still in the goods.  

Yep, someones gonna cave.  With all due respect Mr. Horst.....Please be wrong....I promise to forgive you.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. 

I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

He's gotta be thinking the inevitable "north shift" is in play.  NWS has southern locals still in the goods.  

Yep, someones gonna cave.  With all due respect Mr. Horst.....Please be wrong....I promise to forgive you.

 

I'm not going to get my expectations up until he changes his tune. He obviously sees something that the models aren't picking up on right now, or he is simply being super cautious. Which in and of itself is probably smart. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if it does push north, perhaps the Pike may be the way to go. Fly in the ointment would be the Laurels. 

I have until Monday to figure it out I guess. Monday I should be in Columbus and from there I can head up to Youngstown to 80, or continue on 70 toward Wheeling and New Stanton.

God my head is spinning... :wacko:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, canderson said:

I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. 

I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. 

I thought of that...watch Mr. Williamsport end up with 2'. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. 

I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. 

i said the exact same thing yesterday. It seems non stop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. 
I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. 


Confluence to the north is key. Better confluence signature means system can stay further south. Weak confluence with departing 50/50 means, “Go north my friend”. Round 2 is up in the air, but that’s one way to go from meh to Oh really quick


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I thought of that...watch Mr. Williamsport end up with 2'. 

still will be upset cause of lack of road stickage....

March sun angles n all that

:lol:

edit:  just bustin ya wmspt dude cause itll likely happen for you anyway

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, paweather said:

GFS is a huge hit. 

gfs_asnow_us_24.png

You beat me bud.  

IF this were to verify, there would be many naked snow angels being made on Wednesday.  the ull seems to have a different evolution and instead of spinning, it pops coastal LP#2 to follow up coastal #1.  not likely imo, but I'd think a stall is more likely what this would evolve as.  

I'm digging this run even if i taint in round 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pasnownut said:

You beat me bud.  

IF this were to verify, there would be many naked snow angels being made on Wednesday.  the ull seems to have a different evolution and instead of spinning, it pops coastal LP#2 to follow up coastal #1.  not likely imo, but I'd think a stall is more likely what this would evolve as.  

I'm digging this run even if i taint in round 1

CMC is rolling we will see what that says. I like it, it came a little further north but not too north for liquid versus frozen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is this may come in two pieces. First one definitely has thermal issues and north of pike (or PA/NY) border is favored. The second more energetic piece would deliver the goods.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Confluence to the north is key. Better confluence signature means system can stay further south. Weak confluence with departing 50/50 means, “Go north my friend”. Round 2 is up in the air, but that’s one way to go from meh to Oh really quick


.

 

Ah, that makes sense - well here's to confluence! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfs_asnow_neus_26.png

closer view for the visually impaired....or lovers of weather porn.

While I'm not getting suckered in yet, it still is so so nice to look at the perty colors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

The problem is this may come in two pieces. First one definitely has thermal issues and north of pike (or PA/NY) border is favored. The second more energetic piece would deliver the goods.


.

yep.  Pray for earlier transfer and were all good in the hood.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ah, that makes sense - well here's to confluence! 

and at 500 this is not a bad look whatsoever.  we also have a 1028hp that is better placed to help up in northern quebec.  That would aid in keeping storm from gaining much latitude and keep midlevels cold enough.  We need next few runs to show earlier transfer, and the LSV is in the money.

gfs_z500a_us_20.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This run now makes 3 in a row with 12+ for MDT.

Also, look over at that 19.2" in north Jersey.  That's the same area that got 20" last week.  My sister still lives there and it's where I lived for the first 41 years of my life.  That would make 20/20 which would be very appropriate considering my profession.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, paweather said:

and then the CMC goes south LOL, these models. 

actually it didnt.

you need to toggle from 0z to 12z through all panels.  That run is closer to epic than fail. 

500 also lookes moderately fantastic.  Doesnt close off but shows a slow progression once the transfer takes place.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.