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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was excellent last storm in the 84-120 timeframe...consistently showing a hit when Euro was SE and other guidance was waffling...then it choked on its vomit inside of 72.

So far that's pretty much what it's been doing. It's had a hit for a few runs now with a tick w/e respectively.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We can nitpick who won last storm but it varies at what lead time and whos backyard. 

euro nailed this last event close in, people look at 10-1 snow maps and complain, I was 6-1 and would have had the 11 inches if 10-1, in fact North foster did. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did well in close range but it did poorly on qpf for the deform jacks. But i guess deform bands are not its bread n butter...which is why I usually take its qpf output lightly. 

qpf is the lowest ranking predictor, it showed 2 deform bands though

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did well in close range but it did poorly on qpf for the deform jacks. But i guess deform bands are not its bread n butter...which is why I usually take its qpf output lightly. 

Nailed the precip here pretty much, Several runs between 14-18" and we ended up with 14", GFS had 8", It missed the banding.

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