CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I would not worry about the EPO too much heading into March. As the wavelengths shorten, those correlations start to lose some merit. Either Rockies ridging or blocking up north will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray one word of advice, you'll have to learn to control the weenie inside you. Trust me. I have like a +5SD OCD ridge parked over the top of me....can't let the blog sway in the wind nude as a threat encroaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Or plan your bathroom trips around the model runs.......... Dude..... .....no lie, I locked myself the bathroom to do that final call There were nieces and nephews swirling around everywhere...she was pissed. Little did I know I should have left the forecast in the bathroom when I was finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dude..... .....no lie, I locked myself the bathroom to do that final call There were nieces and nephews swirling around everywhere...she was pissed. Little did I know I should have left the forecast in the bathroom when I was finished. lol, You learning already, That probably could have went on the second flush................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd just assume not endeavor to challenge the limitations of a decidedly negative PNA again. Ha ha! ... yeah, I hear ya ... But, the PNA rises and goes positive over the next 10 days in at least one of the two agencies. That's A ... B, as I was losing the reader in a lot of multi-syllabic words that no one has much hope of understanding, the +PNAP changes the landscape of forcing Ray. I don't think it's the same thing as a vestigial -PNA/SE ridge going through this upcoming 2-week period (call it..). This newer paradigm offers much less supportive large scale backing for a SE ridge maintenance. And with a western bulge allowed to evolve, like we see in most guidance ... Put it this way, the next storm is NOT going to turn right and sink toward Bermuda given where we are headed. Not a chance. Plus... as other's have correctly noted, the air mass over everywhere is completely different. You know, in a way? ...this last storm, for all it's butt bruisin' antics...maybe it was necessary to truly get us where winter enthusiasts need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha! ... yeah, I hear ya ... But, the PNA rises and goes positive over the next 10 days in at least one of the two agencies. That's A ... B, as I was losing the reader in a lot of multi-syllabic words that no one has much hope of understanding, the +PNAP changes the landscape of forcing Ray. I don't think it's the same thing as a vestigial -PNA/SE ridge going through this upcoming 2-week period (call it..). This newer paradigm offers much less supportive large scale backing for a SE ridge maintenance. And with a western bulge allowed to evolve, like we see in most guidance ... Put it this way, the next storm is NOT going to turn right and sink toward Bermuda given where we are headed. Not a chance. Yea, probably more important than a +PNA mode...we have the PNA ascending smartly as the ridge approaches.....the modularity is where its at. In my mind, I think that forecast would have been worse had the event whiffed because the huge coastal impact was the main story, regardless of snowfall. The huge event was there, but the thermals didn't work out. "A+" grade for long range call and identification of storm period and attendant blocking...."F" for the medium range snowfall call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray one word of advice, you'll have to learn to control the weenie inside you. Trust me. you seem to do pretty well...you almost always respond to posts and give us tons of great analysis etc while still working all the time with a family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, codfishsnowman said: you seem to do pretty well...you almost always respond to posts and give us tons of great analysis etc while still working all the time with a family Multi-tasking and phone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: you seem to do pretty well...you almost always respond to posts and give us tons of great analysis etc while still working all the time with a family Ray will learn. Marriage is also compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray will learn. Marriage is also compromise. all relationships are compromise...things in your wildest dreams you never would have otherwise allowed or endured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray will learn. Marriage is also compromise. You mean this compromise? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ray will learn. Marriage is also compromise. A compromise, yes. Your wife wants A, you want C, so you compromise and choose A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Soundings are actually pretty weenieish for BOS on Sunday night. Very steep lapse rates up to about 800mb and then an isothermal layer above that around -14 to 16C. Wouldn't be shocking if there were some nice bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray will learn. Marriage is also compromise. isn't that the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Soundings are actually pretty weenieish for BOS on Sunday night. Very steep lapse rates up to about 800mb and then an isothermal layer above that around -14 to 16C. Wouldn't be shocking if there were some nice bursts. Is that strictly SE New England event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is that strictly SE New England event? No I don't think so. GFS actually has a nice little weenie band into central areas too. So does reggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Multi-tasking and phone lol. Hey I saw that FB post where you got you wife and kids out of the house to go look at tidal flooding #winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z GFS imo looks even better than 6Z did for Wed event. A little colder and better coverage of precip extending all the way back toward central PA. This is through hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 GGEM and GFS are pretty good, esp inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GGEM and GFS are pretty good, esp inland. Yeah... looks real good for inland areas. Not good here. That track won’t cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Does this storm look as strong as the one we just had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Totals through hr 120 on GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... looks real good for inland areas. Not good here. That track won’t cut it You get a good pasting for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does this storm look as strong as the one we just had? Not even remotely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Jesus...can we analyze the troposphere before we start putting up cartoon images of snow fantasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does this storm look as strong as the one we just had? Strongest it gets to is 987 as it approaches Martha's Vineyard at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I dunno man.. The GFS is about a pube away from being a wicked storm ... wow. There is a small potent parcel of arctic dynamics pinwheeling around the GL SPV ...and that tries to subsume the coastal wave but just...barely misses doing so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Boy if we could only get that to stall a bit further south. That is a potent s/w diving in from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno man.. The GFS is about a pube away from being a wicked storm ... wow. There is a small potent parcel of arctic dynamics pinwheeling around the GL SPV ...and that tries to subsume the coastal wave but just...barely misses doing so... Yep, just commented on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus...can we analyze the troposphere before we start putting up cartoon images of snow fantasy... Sorry Tip, didn't mean to p*ss anyone off, just figured for people on their phones or what not, they could view it. 2M Dew's are decent all the way up to 108 I believe and then go to the mid 30's for eastern areas of CT and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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