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Typhoon Tip

March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

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Also noticed up here any ways as some pre with a weak s/w in the northern stream that moves thru here ahead of that main system, Euro has had that a few runs now.

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Weather.us really shows the power of dynamic cooling. It gets to near -5C west of 128 on Friday. Yeah, that's snow. Everyone flashes over too. The LLJ at 925 is off the charts. 95-100mph kissing the mass coast.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Also noticed up here any ways as some pre with a weak s/w in the northern stream that moves thru here ahead of that main system, Euro has had that a few runs now.

We need that to try and send a weak CF south. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We need that to try and send a weak CF south. 

Right now it kind of goes right overhead but something to keep an eye on as well, 12z EPS looks like it has it too.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looks to start almost immediately as a wet glob up here.  Until the GFS comes in with a north trend I am not sold at all anything will even get up to CNE

Why?

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looks to start almost immediately as a wet glob up here.  Until the GFS comes in with a north trend I am not sold at all anything will even get up to CNE

Seriously?

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Why?

Well, my plan is to channel the spirit of MPM and TBlizz and plan on mehing my way to some snow.  Once the storm is over, I then plan on codfishing it and complaining about the fact that someone two towns over got 3" more than me.  In this way I will ensure  the snowy outcome I desire.  The first step in my plan is to doubt all guidance.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a lot of precip for a mean..no?

Yes it is a lot, Going to be some hefty individuals when those come out.......lol

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Any chance of this becoming snowy for NYC and how would it happen? Weaker primary and stronger earlier blue bomb on benchmark? Have you guys ever seen it happen before clearly we have no cold air but systems like this could create it's own cold air correct?

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NNEers check out e34, widespread 30"+

This far out, ORH-SNH has strongest support among multiple consecutive EPS runs

Excellent Euro / ensembles 12z run, stopped the south sag in last night's guidance... fun to look at but lots of lead time to go

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4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Any chance of this becoming snowy for NYC and how would it happen? Weaker primary and stronger earlier blue bomb on benchmark? Have you guys ever seen it happen before clearly we have no cold air but systems like this could create it's own cold air correct?

Mm, not entirely true.  

If you look at the 500 mb thickness depiction, we have a cold middle troposphere.  That, then working dynamic drill down thru... is a cold source a plenty, particularly when the lower thickness intervals aren't exactly warm either.

I think (not necessarily you per se..) but some folks are used to seeing -10 C at 850 with -30 C lurking over southern Ontario for these cobweb dust bombs we've had in the past three years... It's funny- but heh-yeah, we forget it snows at 33 F pretty f'n heavy sometimes. 

"The create cold air" is sort of an interesting phraseology ... systems don't really create cold, but I suspect what is meant is similar to what I described above. 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

NNEers check out e34, widespread 30"+

This far out, ORH-SNH has strongest support among multiple consecutive EPS runs

Excellent Euro / ensembles 12z run, stopped the south sag in last night's guidance... fun to look at but lots of lead time to go

Quite a cluster of members well to the NW of the mean as expected over MA/CT, Looks like we are losing the ones that were well SE

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

S/W responsible hasn't even been sampled yet so there should be plenty of changes still.

It's straddling the B.C. coast diving S ... it runs down Cali as an inside/ouside slider ...and briefly closes of in the SW before ultimately getting ejected E as an open wave...

Interestingly, during the slider times, the GFS splices a portion of the wave and shears it east across southern Canada. Not all the models so obviously do that... It matters, because more kept means more to serve from the SW --> ejection... 

The differences after ejection are pretty notable between the GGEM and GFS... The GGEM phases more n-stream/intermediate stream mechanics as it is passing near the southern Lakes. The GFS does not; it coherently starts closing it off over IL...

The GFS sort of implies partial occlusion and maxed out feedbacks from dynamics has already taken place by the time the whole bundle of joy tries to deepen a bit more near NJ... The Canada waits to do most of it's when the phase completes a bit more quintessentially - yet ironically.. keeps it's boundary layer suspicious way too warm considering how much deepening it sends this thing through when it is passing under LI.  That sucker should be throwing triple S' in snow balls at us but it tries to keep it rain which is less likely given that evolution.  ...assuming it's even right... egh.

Anyway, I'm sure the Euro has it's own shenanegans.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm, not entirely true.  

If you look at the 500 mb thickness depiction, we have a cold middle troposphere.  That, then working dynamic drill down thru... is a cold source a plenty, particularly when the lower thickness intervals aren't exactly warm either.

I think (not necessarily you per se..) but some folks are used to seeing -10 C at 850 with -30 C lurking over southern Ontario for these cobweb dust bombs we've had in the past three years... It's funny- but heh-yeah, we forget it snows at 33 F pretty f'n heavy sometimes. 

"The create cold air" is sort of an interesting phraseology ... systems don't really create cold, but I suspect what is meant is similar to what I described above. 

Yeah John, 

I've seen even many a TV met talk about the "no cold air" myth before blue bombs. Saw it in feb 2010 and more recently before the march 2013 event. The whole key is obviously looking at the midlevel wetbulb temps and even beyond that, how quickly we are losing heights dynamically. 

You clearly need the dynamics and heavy precip to horsepower the whole thing but this system "as modeled" is not lacking either. We even have some hints of ageostrophic polar dewpoint drain due to the block up north. 

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Just from a dynamics standpoint, It looks to do a top down cool down quite rapidly as the the heavier rates take hold over areas that start out really marginal.

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