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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I would think even if we don't get the snow that with the potential blocking that may develop we should at least see slower moving and more potent storm systems. Correct?

A convoluted North Altlantic should slow down things coming off the coast .  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

LOL..most of you guys wouldn't be happy if there was a raging blizzard going on outside your window, you would find something to complain about. :P

Would we be under an actual blizzard warning?  I could see most of us feeling slighted by not meeting that criteria.  

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

And as a follow up it seems no one believes the East based NAO continues to shift West turning into our more favored West based - NAO. 

And who can you blame for that view?

It takes a lot of faith to believe we eventually get a West based NAO . If you think the weeklies are not accurate that far out, well maybe you can make a case its wrong.  

We are still in a Nina base state at that time so even a West base - NAO may not be enough. 

 

 

 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Judging by the GEFS precip panels on TT, it looks like the GEFS doubled up on the Sunday deal. Waiting for weatherbell to confirm, but it's really delayed

So it’s Sunday we are looking at.  I have been focused on Early Saturday frontal passage.  Thanks for clarifying.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Who can blame the weeklies (havent seen them) for being warm beyond week 2 when 00z looked like this?

eps_t850a_5d_noram_61.thumb.png.3294336ae3357f77885c55f47918a43d.png

So some random dude on twitter thinks the weeklies are a torch for early March. Zero specifics. Okaaaay.

EPS weeklies are based off the 0z run at day 15...an extrapolation. So yeah there is that. And the runs are often ambiguous and subject to much interpretation. They are a LR tool with limited usefulness, that sometimes can provide a general idea of where the pattern is headed.  Yes based off this run, they probably do look warm in early March.

I think I can manage to hold off before officially making the death call on this winter based off one dude's tweet lol.

On another note, WB SUCKS. Cant wait to cancel that sht.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I suspected so, but I wouldn't know since WB is still only out to day 9 on the 12z run lol. Pathetic.

I saw an nao chart from 12z EPS and just from that it had to be different. Problem with the weeklies is during periods when things are jumpy in the long range they become useless before they even come out. They are only have validity if Day 15 of that EPS run is valid. 

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So some random dude on twitter thinks the weeklies are a torch for early March. Zero specifics. Okaaaay.

EPS weeklies are based off the 0z run at day 15...an extrapolation. So yeah there is that. And the runs are often ambiguous and subject to much interpretation. They are a LR tool with limited usefulness, that sometimes can provide a general idea of where the pattern is headed.  Yes based off this run, they probably do look warm in early March.

I think I can manage to hold off before officially making the death call on this winter based off one dude's tweet lol.

On another note, WB SUCKS. Cant wait to cancel that sht.

That's a great way to put it.  Its limitations are what is debatable...hence the battles that usually ensue after it runs.

Yep..WB is brutal.  May be looking for something dif next year.  Lots of issues this season it seems...I'll need a reliable site next year for our mod Modoki el ninio winter.

 

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends what you consider "deliver" and it depends where in our "area" you live.  If we define that as "warning" criteria snowfall and we round 4.5" up since warning is loosely applied usually and an "average" across a county not one specific location...here are the actual facts for several locations across our area.  

Since 1940 at BWI, DCA

BWI: 23% of the time had a warning event, 3 years with 2 warning events... one with 3 warning events... Max storm snowfall of 14"

DCA: 16% of the time had a warning event, 1 year with 2 warning events.  Max storm of 11.5"

Since 1960 when records began 

IAD: 25% of the time had a warning event after March 1. 17 warning events over 57 years.   3 years with 2 warning events.  Max storm of 14.1"

since 1940 here...

Northeast Carroll County: 40% of the time had a warning event,  6 times with 2 warning events, Max snow event of 32"

So even at DCA there is a better than 10% chance of getting a warning snow after March 1.  So its not "CRAZY" even there.  But as you move NW of the fall line in our area the chances increase dramatically to about 1 in 4 at Dulles to about 40% in the higher terrain in the western and northern 1/3 of our region.  For those of us that live NW of the fall line March is definitely NOT a throw away month.  Actually I average about as much snow in March and any other month really.  If you live south and east of the cities or in the urban heat island then March is a much worse proposition... so you have to determine this based on your location. 

Keep in mind some people in here have different snow climo then others.  I used to live in Southern NJ southeast of Philly and it SUCKED there.  It was much worse then northern VA near IAD where I moved to in high school.  As a kid I remember going multiple years in a row without a warning level snow.  Then once I was in northern VA usually I would beat my old location 80 percent of the time.  But when I lived in South Jersey I didn't expect snow.  It was some rare thing to be treasured...I never went into any season expecting to get much snow at all.  If it happened I was so happy but I just kind of expected us to not get it based on what normally happened there.  That is why I kind of get confused when I see people that live somewhere that gets barely any snow most of the time, and only typically gets one warning level snow every 2 years, going crazy and carrying on when it doesn't snow.  I hate to say it but not snowing in places that only average 16 or 18" of snow a year is kind of normal.  Especially when a big chunk of that 16" average comes from a couple huge anomaly years every decade.  I still feel for those people.  I understand wanting it to snow.  And I lived in a place like that once...but I moved because it didn't snow enough for me to be happy there.  Frankly in seasons like this it still doesn't snow enough here for me to be happy but I am an adult about it and just suck it up and move on with my life.  But at least here I am happy about 60% of the winters vs 20 percent of the winters.  I feel like some people are setting themselves up to be unhappy all the time expecting snow in a place that just isn't going to get it that often.  I really hope no one takes this the wrong way... but if you NEED snow to be happy... and you know where you live its only going to get enough snow 2/10 years....maybe instead of being this miserable 80 percent of the time you should move somewhere that gets more snow.  Life is too short...you only get one go... why be miserable.  And if it doesn't really bother you that much...then stop carrying on like it does.  

PS:  this is not directed all at you MDECOY but more of a public service announcement towards everyone that seems so bent out of shape over snow the last couple years...I really am worried about some of you.  If it bothers you this much... consider if its worth being this frustrated so often every winter.  

In the interest of keeping down banter I will keep it short.

thanks for the stats and explanation. Very informative and interesting!

i agree one must understand ones own climo and adjust expectations accordingly. That being said stats don’t lie. If we get nothing else. This is the worst stretch of snowless winters since 1887. That isn’t normal no matter how you slice it. Not in any way shape or form. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's where it would go from what the gefs showed Day 15 so it makes sense. The issue is weather to believe the gefs. 

Yep. Thats part of the fun of this hobby. Tracking and seeing how things shake out. And not giving a crap that some seem to be inexplicably triggered by it.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

In the interest of keeping down banter I will keep it short.

thanks for the stats and explanation. Very informative and interesting!

i agree one must understand ones own climo and adjust expectations accordingly. That being said stats don’t lie. If we get nothing else. This is the worst stretch of snowless winters since 1887. That isn’t normal no matter how you slice it. Not in any way shape or form. 

1. It's way too early to declare winter over and assume the snow total is done. 

2. If it is over then yes this is one of the worst 2 year stretches ever. But we just came off one of the best 3 years ever. So at the end the last 5 years balances out. Climo is a bunch of anomalies. You can't only look micro. 

3. Lets say D.C. gets a slushy 1.5" next weekend then a mix slopfest 2" in march. Then the last 2 years becomes just a regular ho hum bad two year stretch and not anything historic. But you won't feel any better about it. Be honest. I can tell. When DC gets two 7" winters in a row from a bunch of 1-2" snows you feel just as crappy. And that's just a typical 2 year bad run that happens all the time.

4. I almost feel like some are rooting against snow now so they can justify their complaints and feelings because they know a sloppy 3-4" won't make them feel any better about this winter but it will make this just a regular bad winter and then they can't scream "see it was so awful, the snow gods do hate me and I have every right to feel put upon."  

5.  Be honest you know even if we had 10" this year you would be unhappy. You have even complained in years we got 20". You need way more snow then we get 80% of the time here to be happy. 

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

About 1/2 the 12z GEPS members get at least 1/2" into mby this weekend, but I'm near the edge for a lot of them.  Areas near the MD/PA border seem to be favored.  The GEPS control would be a warning-level event for most of the area.

2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

ICON has been rock steady with this one. 

I've noticed that the ICON is a relatively stable model run-to-run, but sometimes that just means it catches on late.  On January 4th it was one of the last models to come west, but on Januarty 17th it did pretty well.

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, cae said:

About 1/2 the 12z GEPS members get at least 1/2" into mby this weekend, but I'm near the edge for a lot of them.  Areas near the MD/PA border seem to be favored.  The GEPS control would be a warning-level event for most of the area.

I've noticed that the ICON is a relatively stable model run-to-run, but sometimes that just means it catches on late.  On January 4th it was one of the last models to come west, but on Januarty 17th it did pretty well.

 

 

Where do you get the GEPS members?

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