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weathafella

Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Thank you old man winter for starting this..............:)

Let’s hope it brings juju.   I’m cautiously optimistic for a decent front ender here.

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Big front ender there on euro. Prob close to warning in the pike region and solid advisory to the south....esp over interior. Sfc low takes a more typical track for that high position. No way interior gets to freezing. 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wait, I've never seen that... the Kuchie snow maps are like nothing south of the Pike but the 10:1 maps have 3-6" south of the Pike. 

I've seen that. In borderline events, those differences comes out. It's like it treats borderline events as non accumulating mash potatoes.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wait, I've never seen that... the Kuchie snow maps are like nothing south of the Pike but the 10:1 maps have 3-6" south of the Pike. 

Kuchera does not like snow ratios with a temp in the column at or above freezing. Snow with a temp of 34F would give a ratio of 6:1. 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kuchera does not like snow ratios with a temp in the column at or above freezing. Snow with a temp of 34F would give a ratio of 6:1. 

Doesn't seem too unreasonable I guess... hard to say though as at that temp sometimes you're getting big aggregates that stack up.  I  mean 34F needles yeah, you're getting sometime a bit better than sleet.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Doesn't seem too unreasonable I guess... hard to say though as at that temp sometimes you're getting big aggregates that stack up.  I  mean 34F needles yeah, you're getting sometime a bit better than sleet.

Given the temp profiles. that's like 3-4 easily for BOS anyways. Very cold to start at 925 and even with east winds, that would hover like 31 at BOS for awhile. Not really a paste job. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given the temp profiles. that's like 3-4 easily for BOS anyways. Very cold to start at 925 and even with east winds, that would hover like 31 at BOS for awhile. Not really a paste job. 

Yeah, I like on Wxbell it has a field for max H85-H7 temperatures... really useful in a SWFE like this.  Looks like on the Euro run the 0C or higher in that 850mb-700mb level gets to north of the Pike but south of RT 2 where it stalls out.  So RT 2 and north is all snow.  Like SWFE climo right there.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I like on Wxbell it has a field for max H85-H7 temperatures... really useful in a SWFE like this.  Looks like on the Euro run the 0C or higher in that 850mb-700mb level gets to north of the Pike but south of RT 2 where it stalls out.  So RT 2 and north is all snow.  Like SWFE climo right there.

Pretty much. Might be a sneaky war tongue that sleets to SNH or so, but solid event rt 2 north...even to pike I think. 

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