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Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_6.thumb.png.6d88668ce3443f7b86967fa84fec2fac.png

Good track for inland, at a minimum.

Yea this time of year, its hard to rain with Northerly component in wind fields. I am in a wait and see mode for this evolution. ePS snow for that coastal

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I thought it was mild. Especially 925 and 850. It doesn’t matter if the low passes southeast of the Cape when it’s a complete furnace aloft. Maybe it means more ice or mixed precip in the interior. 

Yeah it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense though.  If the end result is as flat as the Euro shows I’m not buying the 850 and 925 centers or temps would be that mild.  The surface may suck for near coastal areas but I’m having a hard time seeing how those levels would be that warm 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense though.  If the end result is as flat as the Euro shows I’m not buying the 850 and 925 centers or temps would be that mild.  The surface may suck for near coastal areas but I’m having a hard time seeing how those levels would be that warm 

Because it’s a retreating high with deep return flow aloft. Makes perfect sense as shown. Of course will it happen that way verbatim? Who knows. I’d probably favor interior for now. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it doesn’t make a whole lost of sense though.  If the end result is as flat as the Euro shows I’m not buying the 850 and 925 centers or temps would be that mild.  The surface may suck for near coastal areas but I’m having a hard time seeing how those levels would be that warm 

Not a cold antecedent air mass. In addition, weak system, which is not going to have well defined cold/warm sectors. Open wave riding a frontal boundary...This boundary slices across SNE...

Thinking it could end up quite warm to the south/east of this boundary....

 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey Scooter heres your PNA what ya got for us

index (1).png

Vortex is high and surrounded by higher heights. The trend has been milder and milder. As long as we keep it positive I think we are ok, but that pattern also leads to crap bag lows like what is coming up. 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Vortex is high and surrounded by higher heights. The trend has been milder and milder. As long as we keep it positive I think we are ok, but that pattern also leads to crap bag lows like what is coming up. 

Our EPO produced a 5-9 , your PNA better produce

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because it’s a retreating high with deep return flow aloft. Makes perfect sense as shown. Of course will it happen that way verbatim? Who knows. I’d probably favor interior for now. 

It just seems extremely rare.  I know that someone posted a stat on DT’s Facebook a few years ago when he was having one of his spats showing that lows that started below Norfolk and tracked within 50 miles of the benchmark going back to 1995 between 1/1 and 2/28 that just short of 90% produced measurable snow in PHL NYC and BOS (I think it was maybe 88-89% exactly).  I guess many of those cases may have been 0.2 inches and then going to rain but it shows you it’s tough to have an airmass so warm in that 60 day period that you don’t get any measurable snow in those 3 cities when a low takes that track originating that far south 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Vortex is high and surrounded by higher heights. The trend has been milder and milder. As long as we keep it positive I think we are ok, but that pattern also leads to crap bag lows like what is coming up. 

Its not trending milder I don't know what you mean by that

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

NOT DONE

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looks good for monday storm for inland ct and sne area for snow storm track just se of sne area and another storm by wed too. i dont change my forecast every model run like many and to many trust or go buy one  weather computer model or change every model run .

feb looks good too. i say even dc and  phil wlll get snowy feb .

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Our EPO produced a 5-9 , your PNA better produce

That’s an ugly one though with a ridge south and east. Like EPOs some have different flavors.

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I think the next 10 days are a coin flip. After the 1-3” tomorrow night there’s a lot that can go right and equal chances it goes very wrong in SNE. If this was December With warm SST’s we’d rain to Maine in this setup. Given the time of year and low level EPO cold to tap we may be able to sneak in a few wet snow events. But it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see guidance continue trending warmer either. There’s no one here that’s very confident in snows right now after tomorrow night. Not even Ginx 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its not trending milder I don't know what you mean by that

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I look at everything. The last few days have featured energy beating down the ridge out west and milder air moving east and limiting the extent and depth of east coast troughing. As I said, if we can keep the pna more positive we’ll be fine, but it’s a little concerning. The GEFS on the other hand are not as bearish. Would be nice if they won like they did around Christmas.  We wait and see. Even a compromise would be fine.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the next 10 days are a coin flip. After the 1-3” tomorrow night there’s a lot that can go right and equal chances it goes very wrong in SNE. If this was December With warm SST’s we’d rain to Maine in this setup. Given the time of year and low level EPO cold to tap we may be able to sneak in a few wet snow events. But it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see guidance continue trending warmer either. There’s no one here that’s very confident in snows right now after tomorrow night. Not even Ginx 

you ain't baiting me, so your saying there is a chance but there isn't a chance, lol Dryslot was right you can never be wrong

  • Haha 2

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at everything. The last few days have featured energy beating down the ridge out west and milder air moving east and limiting the extent and depth of east coast troughing. As I said, if we can keep the pna more positive we’ll be fine, but it’s a little concerning. The GEFS on the other hand are not as bearish. Would be nice if they won like they did around Christmas.  We wait and see. Even a compromise would be fine.

I’m riding the MJO all the way LOL.  If it goes into 8 and 1 that pattern on the EPS at Day 15 can’t possibly be right unless we had a moderate or strong ENSO event 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

you ain't baiting me, so your saying there is a chance but there isn't a chance, lol Dryslot was right you can never be wrong

Not baiting but you’ve been on the snowy foot plus truck and we all hope you’re right. That’s all we are saying 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m riding the MJO all the way LOL.  If it goes into 8 and 1 that pattern on the EPS at Day 15 can’t possibly be right unless we had a moderate or strong ENSO event 

It’s orobably overdone, but it looks like it’s just some fluky stuff up in the poles flying around. Anyways I’m not sweating it, just keeping an eye out. 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not baiting but you’ve been on the snowy foot plus truck and we all hope you’re right. That’s all we are saying 

well i am 7 inches closer to a foot, you?

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The high pressure position does not look that bad to me on this upcoming storm.

Will mentioned a retreating high, but this is not a textbook retreating high to me. 

First it has a banana look as storm approaches and the high appears to ooze east and still has a sort of ene orientation to our north east. Not one of those crap situations where it retreats east of us and is oriented nw-se (w torching se wind )

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I'll roll the dice...there's not an ideal pattern in place but that rarely happens, esp without any Atlantic help.

 

At least in this pattern, if you get skunked on one setup, there's another right in the pipeline to track. Still a ways to go to sort out the synoptics of Sunday/Monday...there's been a big shift in the northern stream between yesterday and today that is causing an uglier look, but that could esily change back...it would only take just a little bit of CAD to change it drastically from a sensible wx perspective.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The high pressure position does not look that bad to me on this upcoming storm.

Will mentioned a retreating high, but this is not a textbook retreating high to me. 

First it has a banana look as storm approaches and the high appears to ooze east and still has a sort of ene orientation to our north east. Not one of those crap situations where it retreats east of us and is oriented nw-se (w torching se wind )

The issue is what happens right before...there's a weak low sig up into Canada before the storm gets going offshore...and it advects a bunch of milder air in from the south before winds turn back to the NE. That would skunk a lot of folks.

 

Like he is 108 hours...note there is one high almost off the screen retreating and nother way back in the plains...but in between we have an elongated low to our northwest. That is not ideal...we'd prob go snow to rain in that scenario. I don't know if it is right though...yesterday, the northern stream dug south more and allowed the plains high to build in better and set up nice ageo northerly flow....so this could change.

 

 

 

 

ecmwf_apcp_f108_us.png

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The high pressure position does not look that bad to me on this upcoming storm.

Will mentioned a retreating high, but this is not a textbook retreating high to me. 

First it has a banana look as storm approaches and the high appears to ooze east and still has a sort of ene orientation to our north east. Not one of those crap situations where it retreats east of us and is oriented nw-se (w torching se wind )

Doesn't look bad? I wish I could find said surface HP to compare and analyze....

Anyway you being in Andover is one of the better spots to be in SNE for this...

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11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That distribution could flip soon...

I'll take my chances in Greenfield for the Monday system.

sh it dude you might want to look at Models for tonight alone

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