40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I used to think of 6-10 as a huge storm back in the day during our snow drought years. But now I just think of it as moderate to heavy. Either way, it's a warning criteria snowfall for our area. Yes. Moderate to heavy on upper end. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't worry yet. Onshore flow is light. Could easily be some man snow. It gets to 0C at 925 near BOS, but could be he euro a little ampy too. We dry and 22 snow inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We juice You will like the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And why do you remember it? Anomalous set of circumstances...intensity and timing relative to commute. Right. But 4 inches couldn’t do that under any circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Right. But 4 inches couldn’t do that under any circumstances. That’s what he said .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I actually thought 00z was better overall but no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We dry and 22 snow inland? Might be a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be a little warmer. Can we get a 31-32 snower please ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I actually thought 00z was better overall but no complaints. 12z looks like a nice swath of 4-8" through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right. But 4 inches couldn’t do that under any circumstances. Ok....6-10" is higher impact than 4". Agreed, meat. The vast majority if the time 6-10" will not be crippling...thus we forget many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we get a 31-32 snower please ? Not in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I used to think of 6-10 as a huge storm back in the day during our snow drought years. But now I just think of it as moderate to heavy. Either way, it's a warning criteria snowfall for our area. Lots of busts during that era. One of the most hyped storms of the era took place in February 1988. Couple days in advance Ron Harris on channel 56 was calling it the white gorilla. Boston had 6 and turned to rain after a snowy morning but back then 6 inches was kinda big news in downtown Boston. The storm disrupted campaigning in advance of the republican and democratic primary in New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 An interesting system coming tomorrow night into Tuesday for my area. Lots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I used to think of 6-10 as a huge storm back in the day during our snow drought years. But now I just think of it as moderate to heavy. Either way, it's a warning criteria snowfall for our area. Yup ... in fact I almost recall there was a standardization back a couple decades that 10" was the entry into "major" more formally, too. It's really just that we're jaded by being donut-stuffed (Simpson's reference) by 20" bombs so many times that I suspect the 'culture' of expectation doesn't apply anymore. And I don't think it should... right along with, the evolution of technology, ...from snow removal, to being able to work from home, to automotive and back and everything in between... 10" just doesn't carry the same logistical impact as it did even 20 years ago... much less than 40 years ago. 'Course, anyone waving their hand thinking 'pick me! pick me!' ...bursting at the seam to rebut ... Yeah, we know... it only takes thin snow and/or ice to seriously f-up a morning commute. Not talking about individual studies and idiosyncratic occurrences where comparatively less caused an anomalously larger impact. Timing is of course important... 4" suddenly at 4:30pm will get some people into motels I remember back in 2003 .. we had a WINDEX event at 7:30 AM and that grid-locked I-95 from Burlington Mass to Norwood for four hours one morning... total snow? ... 1/3 of inch maybe... Excluding those weirdo scenarios...in general, it's hard to argue that 10" carries the same concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z looks like a nice swath of 4-8" through SNE. With that QPF? I don't even see .5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ... in fact I almost recall there was a standardization back a couple decades that 10" was the entry into "major" more formally, too. It's really just that we're jaded by being donut-stuffed (Simpson's reference) by 20" bombs so many times that I suspect the 'culture' of expectation doesn't apply anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: With that QPF? I don't even see .5" total. Easterly inflow up over cold dome. Freak is correct . Toss qpf setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 There def could be some enhanced totals west of the CF but I would keep things tempered a bit for now. I wouldn't be painting 6+ yet. It def could happen but we have several more model cycles to hone the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ah haha ... in fact, each duple of those animated donuts ... in an ironic twist, I bet that's about the number of 12+" snow bombs we've had in the last 20 years, comparative to the cryospheric horror of having half as many 6"ers before that... You know ...it's probably part and parcel in why the 1978 stuff was such a big deal. Not to get into an Ali versus Tyson dim witted plebeian debate over which boxer is better ... but I still argue that 1978 now might not carry the same impact as it did then, if it were to happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There def could be some enhanced totals west of the CF but I would keep things tempered a bit for now. I wouldn't be painting 6+ yet. It def could happen but we have several more model cycles to hone the amounts. That's how I feel. I'm sure there could be a 6+ somewhere, but I wouldn't say widespread 4-8 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not to quibble but the max I see on this map is 15. Not to quibble but that's a range of .6 to .78 over my head based on the color code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah haha ... in fact, each duple of those animated donuts ... in an ironic twist, I bet that's about the number of 12+" snow bombs we've had in the last 20 years, comparative to the cryospheric horror of having half as many 6"ers before that... You know ...it's probably part and parcel in why the 1978 stuff was such a big deal. Not to get into an Ali versus Tyson dim witted plebeian debate over which boxer is better ... but I still argue that 1978 now might not carry the same impact as it did then. The fact that we probably wouldn't be caught by surprise today makes a great deal of difference in my opinion. It still would be amazingly fierce though. I also thought the donut machine apropos, as no matter how many snow bombs we digest, we always always want more. There's no satiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With that QPF? I don't even see .5" total. Interesting, I was seeing a nice swath of 0.5-0.7" cut through SNE. I just thought that looked like it was saying low-end warning stuff. 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There def could be some enhanced totals west of the CF but I would keep things tempered a bit for now. I wouldn't be painting 6+ yet. It def could happen but we have several more model cycles to hone the amounts. Yeah definitely not, was just going by what the Euro showed. A EURO/GGEM blend would be nice, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With that QPF? I don't even see .5" total. .6 to .7 in heaviest stripe from CT to ME Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That's much different than what I see, but I don't see the hi res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Interesting, I was seeing a nice swath of 0.5-0.7" cut through SNE. Yeah definitely not, was just going by what the Euro showed. A EURO/GGEM blend would be nice, ha. Scooters Tandy and 1980s WSI graphics FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's much different than what I see, but I don't see the hi res. I mean it goes to town for a couple panels there in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: The fact that we probably wouldn't be caught by surprise today makes a great deal of difference in my opinion. It still would be amazingly fierce though. 'course! ... we mean in the relative sense. it would be hugely impacting in either era - ...just not as much. I read anecdotally that there were on-camera Mets passing it off as much less? I didn't honestly live around here then, so I don't have any direct recollection. The Cleveland Superbomb out my way in the GL though... I remember that as 6-12" forecast' with near blizzard warnings. I was a little guy then, and the word blizzard was just an abstraction to widen eyes. I didn't have any corporeality until I saw ... 30" and whiteout so dense that you didn't know what the f was going to come next when the gusts of wind shook the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Ah haha ... in fact, each on of those animated donuts ... I bet that's about the number of 12+" snow bombs we've had in the last 20 years, comparative to the cryospheric horror of having half as many 6"ers before that... You know ...it's probably part and parcel in why the 1978 stuff was such a big deal. Not to get into a Ali versus Tyson dim witted plebeian debate over which boxer is better ... but I still argue that 1978 now might not carry the same impact as it did then. For one thing, '78 would not be as poorly forecast nowadays anyway. You wouldn't have everyone going into work that day...everyone would know that a blizzard was going to start midday or late morning. A huge part of that disaster was everyone going into work because they weren't expecting a big problem that quickly. They thought it would come in gradually and also never be a huge storm to begin with...more of a moderate deal. (That's kind of what doomed December 13, 2007 too...6-9" forecast so people thought it was manageable) I believe '78 was the storm where Harvey Leonard in his rookie season made a name for himself as being the first and only met to sound the warning that it could be a blockbuster. Everyone else had been snakebit by the Cleveland bomb bust 10 days earlier. That super bomb had been predicted to be an east coast storm but then ended up cutting. The old LFM didn't have latent heat release in the model and the super bomb had so much latent heat release down south it really screwed wth the model accuracy. Turned a coastal into a stemwinding monster straight north through the Apps and into Lake Erie. All the Mets were really cautious because of that leading into the 78 blizzard a short time later. Harvey grew caution to the wind and was right. Lol. But yeah i agree in modern times we would handle 78 a lot better. Even if we still introduced the element of surprise we would probably handle it a bit better since we have better cars now and better road crews...though it would still be gridlock I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That's totally diff qpf from what I see too. That's like almost double over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.