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Damage In Tolland

Days and days of snow disco

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats Abington MA in interior SE MA.

5a5a1d7250624_snku_acc.us_ne(2).png.9139ccfc57c410c290b25c05ce16909b.png

It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself.

Yeah, while not huge, will be an interesting setup to monitor.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meaning no coastal at all?

I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea?  There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea?  There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite.

I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. 

I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now.

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21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. 

I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now.

Yeah I’m not ruling it out, but I think the bullish solutions from yesterday may be tough to come by.

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Trough does look pretty good at 114 though. Wouldn't take much to back that sucker in. We're still a ways out...seems like we've been tracking this for days and I'm talking about a 114 hour panel. Yeesh. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tue or Wed?

Wed morning. Starts predawn this run. Maybe like midnight your hood. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. 

Agreed.

I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. 

Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out.

I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Agreed.

I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. 

Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out.

I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above.

PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I’m still waiting for it to bring Sandy to Boston like it had.

It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then.   Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives?

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO

We can agree to disagree on this aspect. Through day 3, the PNA ridge is sufficient to open the door for a PV lobe from the arctic, beyond that I want the east coast to work out. If the flow is slowed over the east coast we get a big storm.

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59 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then.   Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives?

It’s a suck model.

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