• Member Statistics

    15,756
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    McHenrySnow
    Newest Member
    McHenrySnow
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
John1122

1/8/18 Wintry Mix Event OBS and last minute forecasts.

Recommended Posts

Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting.  

Now cast situation here.

Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen.  Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville. 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

As Jax pointed out, the WAA is a beast. Crossville has warmed from 31 to 33 with clear skies. We will see if they can wet bulb or not. 

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The precip to our west looks fairly robust. I would think if precipitation over preforms that means more WAA. Winds have been from the south here all day. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

If WAA is stronger than modeled, that would be very rare. In fact it’s usually the opposite.


.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The mountain tops will always warm faster and Crossville is a pretty prime spot for warming because it's comparitively flat. But they still were fprecast to get down to 27 tonight.  On the west side, Cookeville is forecast to hit 32 but they've warmed to 37. 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

29, north side of kingsport, seems like these forecasted lows are gonna bust quite hard...i expect a quicker then expected switch to rain...

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z NAM appears to be initializing way west w the precip compared to radar and what is hitting the ground.  That look suspect to anyone?

Yep, the 3km doesn't show the precip even touching the plateau until 12z.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got 27 here at the house. No wind to speak of. However, I can see stars through the clouds, not entirely clear, but not thick overcast either.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Temp has fallen to 30 here. Been waves of virga moving across. Not sure if the drop is in response to wet bulbing or not. 

Areas seeing warming are seeing strong S winds. Crossville has winds out of the South at 18.  Cookeville S at 11. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.