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Baroclinic Zone

Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

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Models today are converging on a storm impacting the Northeast.  Details are still to be ironed out but we look to have a highly anomalous modeled storm coming out of the Gulf that pass somewhere off the coast of New England.  The modeled SLP is pretty low for a winter storm (sub 960mb) so while the main storm center may pass well offshore, there should be a pretty expansive western edge to the precipitation field.  One other feature that models seem to be picking up upon is a strong low level convergence between the primary low and ULL over the GL.  This is likely what is allowing for the further offshore track to still throwback moisture so far removed from the center of circulation.

gem_z500_mslp_eus_18.thumb.png.1403ed7b1e395c7952b572290d70b351.pnggfs_z500_mslp_eus_18.thumb.png.1f87ca422f3b45f1045dc065b1bc7eae.pnggfs-ens_z500_mslp_eus_18.thumb.png.ffbef510bbe33402ea3367d50238755e.pnggfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.thumb.png.05248b81d6cdeb2ab8c84c901f684445.png

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_26.thumb.png.c0640184acf841ca9b2f27f667d2ed16.png

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The interesting part of the dual structure is that upper level forcing supports it. 

In other words, the GFS isn't just producing a band of snow inland and a band of QPF with convection for no reason. At 850 mb especially, it clearly has two zones of higher deformation, both within the strongest f-gen. 

Maybe Will can remember an analog that had this dual-banded structure.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ima nit-pick the GGEM but I just looked through the thermal profile and I don't see rain here.  Looked like a pasting verbatim.

Yeah... that’s 12”+ here of heavy snow... I’d lock that right now 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would suck that thing dry if it verifies. 

And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005?

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005?

That map gives PYM 6 ish?

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2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

And I'd still be waiting for my first inch...obviously it takes an anomalous year to get snowfall on to the cape...i wasn't living here in 2005 but my sister was. Wonder if this monster shares an analog with anything from 2005?

Anything is on the table, eastern zones are favored at the moment. You’ll get your first inch and as much as you can handle. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, im liking the subtle improvements.

Euro as you know rarely makes big moves but every tick has been in the right direction the past 2 days.

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