Interstate Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't know what's up with the gfs. Just comparing hr 72 with the euro you can clearly see the pac sw and it's barely detectable on the gfs. It will be a nervous 72 hours if the GFS does not cave by then waiting for the SW to come on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 You guys missed the better qpf map for the Ukie at that site. This is the total qpf all panels for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You guys missed the better qpf map for the Ukie at that site. This is the total qpf all panels for the storm Looks like 0.6 QPF with a lot more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: It will be a nervous 72 hours if the GFS does not cave by then waiting for the SW to come on shore. I don't think I'm nervous anymore. Euro is pretty damn accurate through 72 hours. Especially with something like whether a shortwave exists or not. Ukie looked the same and the cmc was less amped but still produced. Gfs is missing something in the short range. I won't forget this. Things still have to go right downstream for the storm to work but when a model screws up the catalyst for the storm in the short range it makes it really hard to feel confident in the med range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro looks different at hr 120 compared to 12z. Not in a good way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro looks different at hr 120 compared to 12z. Not in a good way I think. Flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This run isn't going to be pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro is squashed and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Flatter I blame the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Goodnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro better work magic on this run after 126 or it's dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I blame the gfs For being right as of right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Let' see what the EPS says before going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Substantial difference between the Ukie and ECM oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Euro better work majic on this run after 126 or it's dead It's disjointed and out of sync this run. No big storm is coming out of that either way. Oh this hobby will drive you nutz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: For being right as of right now? How can you proclaim the gfs right at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm heading off to bed. Not the best 0z run suite (except for Ukie). GEFS is promising, and the EPS might be for all I know. I guess if solutions flip flop like they are now that's good news, since it means that maybe come the 12z run, the Euro will flip back and be less flat. Still, not what we wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Southern stream is weaker. Less interaction with the northern stream. It gets suppressed and the northern stream system remains separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 We still have the Ukie on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: How can you proclaim the gfs right at this point? I should have said... Euro caving to the GFS. That would have been better. obviously nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Substantial difference between the Ukie and ECM oh well Yep it was similar at 72hrs, then went progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Don't worry, DT has an explanation as to why the Euro says this Just kidding. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: For being right as of right now? How do you know it is "right" as of now? WTF does that mean? We are still many days away from knowing what will transpire. Maybe none of the models are "right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just looking at the Pacific where all these shortwaves are originating...it's a mess. So many little pieces of energy and interactions. Speed, amplitude, etc., all that has to be modeled correctly over one of the most data sparse regions. I really don't feel confident about any one solution until these shortwaves are being sampled better. And that won't be for another 2 days. So yes, this iteration of the Euro looked worse, but I just don't buy that it is handling all these subtle interactions correctly. Not even the King. Take a deep breath people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The euro tries to develop a coastal at the last minute but its way too little too late. But I guess it leaves the door open to improve in future runs. Just the whole thing is out of sync. That's the one thing that bothers me with the northern stream low. If the interaction doesn't go right it can just muck everything up. If that northern stream low is too dominant the whole setup goes to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro tries to develop a coastal at the last minute but its way too little too late. But I guess it leaves the door open to improve in future runs. Just the whole thing is out of sync. That's the one thing that bothers me with the northern stream low. If the interaction doesn't go right it can just muck everything up. If that northern stream low is too dominant the whole setup goes to crap. This run is just 2 strangers passing in the night. Still close but didn't like the lead in much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just kidding. I'm back. No reason to give up hope on one singular operational run. GFS tries its best to ride the coast, but falls short. At least it still shows a storm. I think we're in much better shape than if the storm was modeled to our North like was previously shown by the GFS/Euro just a couple days ago I overreacted... Still hopeful for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Potential for a long lived Norlun troff in the NYC metro with that setup. Edit: Yeah the ULL does give a good 6" in NYC, LI and all of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It went the one way that I don't want to see. Northern stream dominant. Squashed the stj south of us then tries to miller b phase with it way later maybe in time to blast eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This run is just 2 strangers passing in the night. Still close but didn't like the lead in much. I don't like the trend with the northern stream. Look where it is there. That was digging in to our west when we saw big runs. That raises heights ahead and then opens up to a phase south of us. If it comes across to our north like that it's not going to interact the way we need. It's going to squash things then phase off New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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