yoda Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 That HP in the Plains will certainly help us when the waves of moisture come by at hr 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It looks fairly similar to the 6z, but slightly better. Definitely not as surpressed = warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Definitely not as surpressed = warmer Yes, but this run has a nice solid 1040+ HP in the Plains to help out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Gfs fights off wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Massive TX ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 NM gets some decent snow. 1032mb contour runs from coast to coast a lot like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Stubborn High in the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Stubborn High in the Midwest And sliding in tandem with the stuff coming out of the south. It's pretty much an epic ice setup for the midsection of the conus. Good wedge going here too. But not a good snowstorm setup even if the run shows one for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Ruins travel plans nicely for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: And sliding in tandem with the stuff coming out of the south. It's pretty much an epic ice setup for the midsection of the conus. Good wedge going here too. But not a good snowstorm setup even if the run shows one for our area. Yep and nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Gfs does beat up the se ridge better this run after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs does beat up the se ridge better this run after Christmas Still better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Still better than 6z Not great but not shorts and flip flops..we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 About 6-7 GFS runs in a row either showing sleet/zr or close to sleet/zr on Christmas day. Specifics are obviously way out there in time but 6-7 runs in a row showing frozen or near miss frozen is probably more than a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Heavy ice accums in Dale City. I take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs does beat up the se ridge better this run after Christmas agreed. Once we get past pre christmas warmup, verbatim it beat that ridge back and NS energy gets more involved for the MA and appears to morph into something similar to what weve just had the past few days. Hoping the trend continues. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Meh ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Love me some trend gifs from TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Weeklies suck apparently, so good thing they've been bouncing all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 CPC has above average precipitation 6-10day, 8-14day, and 3-4week. It doesn't feel like a rainy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weeklies suck apparently, so good thing they've been bouncing all over the place. The heck with the weeklies, nobody's mentioned the Euro seasonal that came out on Monday. Here's a link to December temps. You can fast forward to January which is normal to slightly below and February that AN by barely 1c. Precip for December is BN, but above to way above in January and February. https://weather.us/monthly-charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Admittedly, the 500mb maps for January and February are nothing to fall in love with. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I don't think this is the right wave pattern. Maybe the cold in eastern Canada will be over the Upper Midwest and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Admittedly, the 500mb maps for January and February are nothing to fall in love with. Lol One thing about the weeklies that I don't like (other than them usually being wrong) is they extend d15 from the 0z run. So when the ens jump, the weeklies usually show a brand new solution. Another thing is this year has been (and will continue to be) very difficult to predict. We've seen sudden jumps since mid Nov and I think that will continue for the balance of met winter. Some years hit a groove (for better or worse) and are easier to predict. Just like the sudden flip to a -ao, we are now seeing a sudden flip to a SE ridge. What's next? If I had to pick one teleconnector that seems to be showing its hand I would say the -epo is probably it. There seems to be a recurring theme to -epo events so far. My guess is that feature will be in play more often than not through the rest of winter. Nina's favor a se ridge so hopefully that doesn't become a pain. We can do ok with a modest one but definitely not a strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing about the weeklies that I don't like (other than them usually being wrong) is they extend d15 from the 0z run. So when the ens jump, the weeklies usually show a brand new solution. Another thing is this year has been (and will continue to be) very difficult to predict. We've seen sudden jumps since mid Nov and I think that will continue for the balance of met winter. Some years hit a groove (for better or worse) and are easier to predict. Just like the sudden flip to a -ao, we are now seeing a sudden flip to a SE ridge. What's next? If I had to pick one teleconnector that seems to be showing its hand I would say the -epo is probably it. There seems to be a recurring theme to -epo events so far. My guess is that feature will be in play more often than not through the rest of winter. Nina's favor a se ridge so hopefully that doesn't become a pain. We can do ok with a modest one but definitely not a strong one. Agree whole heartedly wrt the EPO. That anomalous ridge / block around and over Alaska started showing up in early November and has remained a fixture ever since. Frankly, although it's fun and challenging to discuss mid and long range, I really don't stress over it like I used to because I know that the models are just educated guesses subject to change. And probably, as well, because I can't be sure I'll even be living at my age come mid-long range fruition. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: CPC has above average precipitation 6-10day, 8-14day, and 3-4week. It doesn't feel like a rainy pattern. With above avg temps. Can’t forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Agree whole heartedly wrt the EPO. That anomalous ridge / block around and over Alaska started showing up in early November and has remained a fixture ever since. Frankly, although it's fun and challenging to discuss mid and long range, I really don't stress over it like I used to because I know that the models are just educated guesses subject to change. And probably, as well, because I can't be sure I'll even be living at my age come mid-long range fruition. Lol I thought the ao was going to tank and stay there but that's not the case. If Dec ends up less than 1sd one way or the other then the ao is off the table for a long range predictor. Looks like the ao will prob be fairly close to neutral for the month right now so not very exciting for now. The personality of winter wx has been favorable so far so that's a net +. I totally agree with your thoughts about that. The year has the feel where when chances present themselves they seem to want to work out in our favor. I'm almost 100% sure we're going to have some more chances before the month is out. 18z gefs waffled back to a slower progression with the boundary and is stubborn with the SE ridge. Still no continuity there across guidance. Prob best to just expect a slow go with it and not stress about a few days one way or the other. Seems that an ice or sleet event is in our future. That counts as a white Christmas the timing hits. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: With above avg temps. Can’t forget that. no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 You can definitely see the CAD on the temp map for 24-35 Dec. I can’t remember if the models tend to overdo or underestimate CAD. I know it is often slow to erode but that could just mean long period of lows 40s and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: no chance Of AN temps? Or precip? Or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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