Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs does beat up the se ridge better this run after Christmas

agreed.  Once we get past pre christmas warmup, verbatim it beat that ridge back and NS energy gets more involved for the MA and appears to morph into something similar to what weve just had the past few days.  Hoping the trend continues.

Nut

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weeklies suck apparently, so good thing they've been bouncing all over the place.

The heck with the weeklies,  nobody's mentioned the Euro seasonal that came out on Monday.  Here's a link to December temps. You can fast forward to January which is normal to slightly below and February that AN by barely 1c. Precip for December is BN, but above to way above in January and February. 

https://weather.us/monthly-charts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Admittedly,  the 500mb maps for January and February are nothing to fall in love with. Lol

One thing about the weeklies that I don't like (other than them usually being wrong) is they extend d15 from the 0z run. So when the ens jump, the weeklies usually show a brand new solution. 

Another thing is this year has been (and will continue to be) very difficult to predict. We've seen sudden jumps since mid Nov and I think that will continue for the balance of met winter. Some years hit a groove (for better or worse) and are easier to predict. 

Just like the sudden flip to a -ao, we are now seeing a sudden flip to a SE ridge. What's next? 

If I had to pick one teleconnector that seems to be showing its hand I would say the -epo is probably it. There seems to be a recurring theme to -epo events so far. My guess is that feature will be in play more often than not through the rest of winter. Nina's favor a se ridge so hopefully that doesn't become a pain. We can do ok with a modest one but definitely not a strong one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing about the weeklies that I don't like (other than them usually being wrong) is they extend d15 from the 0z run. So when the ens jump, the weeklies usually show a brand new solution. 

Another thing is this year has been (and will continue to be) very difficult to predict. We've seen sudden jumps since mid Nov and I think that will continue for the balance of met winter. Some years hit a groove (for better or worse) and are easier to predict. 

Just like the sudden flip to a -ao, we are now seeing a sudden flip to a SE ridge. What's next? 

If I had to pick one teleconnector that seems to be showing its hand I would say the -epo is probably it. There seems to be a recurring theme to -epo events so far. My guess is that feature will be in play more often than not through the rest of winter. Nina's favor a se ridge so hopefully that doesn't become a pain. We can do ok with a modest one but definitely not a strong one. 

Agree whole heartedly wrt the EPO. That anomalous ridge / block around and over Alaska started showing up in early November and has remained a fixture ever since. Frankly,  although it's fun and challenging to discuss mid and long range, I really don't stress over it like I used to because I know that the models are just educated guesses subject to change. And probably,  as well,  because I can't be sure I'll even be living at my age come mid-long range fruition.  Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agree whole heartedly wrt the EPO. That anomalous ridge / block around and over Alaska started showing up in early November and has remained a fixture ever since. Frankly,  although it's fun and challenging to discuss mid and long range, I really don't stress over it like I used to because I know that the models are just educated guesses subject to change. And probably,  as well,  because I can't be sure I'll even be living at my age come mid-long range fruition.  Lol

I thought the ao was going to tank and stay there but that's not the case. If Dec ends up less than 1sd one way or the other then the ao is off the table for a long range predictor. Looks like the ao will prob be fairly close to neutral for the month right now so not very exciting for now. 

The personality of winter wx has been favorable so far so that's a net +. I totally agree with your thoughts about that. The year has the feel where when chances present themselves they seem to want to work out in our favor. I'm almost 100% sure we're going to have some more chances before the month is out. 

18z gefs waffled back to a slower progression with the boundary and is stubborn with the SE ridge. Still no continuity there across guidance. Prob best to just expect a slow go with it and not stress about a few days one way or the other. Seems that an ice or sleet event is in our future. That counts as a white Christmas the timing hits. Lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...