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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:


Dang, just like that winter is over!! emoji853.png I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather.


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Everybody's still hyping it, that's the issue. NO models are showing cold in the SE through the end of their runs, Grit just posted about how bad the weeklies look, the MJO and other indices are sputtering and stalling the cold, and most telling thing is, JB has been quiet today! Mine and your hero, if his mouth isn't flapping son of Arcticgeddon 24/7, we are in trouble!

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Everybody's still hyping it, that's the issue. NO models are showing cold in the SE through the end of their runs, Grit just posted about how bad the weeklies look, the MJO and other indices are sputtering and stalling the cold, and most telling thing is, JB has been quiet today! Mine and your hero, if his mouth isn't flapping son of Arcticgeddon 24/7, we are in trouble!

Lol, he’s traveling. He’ll be flapping one way or another next day or so. I’m ready for spring if it’s coming soon. 🏿‍♀️ time!! But I suspect we’ll have another shot or two at a winter storm. I don’t want the super cold it begets dry and suppression, we just need the real cold close by to tap when that GOM opens up with a southern storm track late in the season!!! #juicystormsinFabFeb


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Y'all crazy, especially you Mack!  I'm pretty optimistic for mid-Feb on into March.  The -EPO that develops in early Feb should deposit the bulk of the Northern Hemisphere cold into North America.  As the MJO progresses east into mid-Feb, we should be in better position to receive more of that cold air with better western ridge positioning.  The one fly in the ointment to me could be if the stratospheric PV strengthens and gets wound up tight where the cold air wants to stay bottled up to our north (in Canada).

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Dang, just like that winter is over!! emoji853.png I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather.

 

 

. The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and most importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.

Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.

Speaking of businesses, if you need more long range info and a heads up , and want to join my monthly paid blog, shoot me a PM with your city, state and email.

I'd put a lot of stick in Robert and J/ B. Remember they both predicted the January cold spot on. 

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JB tweet just now on coming COLD!!

 

Step down to colder pattern starting..Negative EPO develops and cold will find a way to push, then take over for much of the nation, Core of cold in mid section first but deepens into east. Remember it steps down into the abyss then hits its stride

 

ECMWF PRECIP patterns in tropical Pacific reveal same kind of MJO rotation as December, Source regions colder though, When EPO negative, tough to hold cold out,

 

 

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

JB tweet just now on coming COLD!!

Step down to colder pattern starting..Negative EPO develops and cold will find a way to push, then take over for much of the nation, Core of cold in mid section first but deepens into east. Remember it steps down into the abyss then hits its stride


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colder than early Jan.?

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7 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:


He didn’t say that, So Idk.


.

I just looked at his feed so i just caught that... but he did say this though:

”ECMWF PRECIP patterns in tropical Pacific reveal same kind of MJO rotation as December, Source regions colder though, When EPO negative, tough to hold cold out.”

 

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On 12/19/2017 at 7:46 PM, packbacker said:

Agreed!   Only a bunch of suckers can screw this up.   Fool proof.  

Mack's reply

"I don't like all this positivity from Pack! I'll bet you two bags of preemergent, that I don't see an inch of snow or ice accums with this "awesome " pattern coming up!"

 

You guys just got to wait for things to shake out. I went back and read the Dec. thread and it was fushadey all over again. Mack, when he comes back I believe you owe Pack two bags of preemergent.

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4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Mack's reply

"I don't like all this positivity from Pack! I'll bet you two bags of preemergent, that I don't see an inch of snow or ice accums with this "awesome " pattern coming up!"

 

You guys just got to wait for things to shake out. I went back and read the Dec. thread and it was fushadey all over again. Mack, when he comes back I believe you owe Pack two bags of preemergent.

Deal! My statement above stands above for Fab Feb! GFS was a dumpster fire

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Deal! My statement above stands above for Fab Feb! GFS was a dumpster fire

Maybe you want get anything but NC will.  I will have about 200 bags of pre emergent if you come up short. 

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS was a dumpster fire

It was the 6z GFS (which typically runs hot anyway) and the end of the run is still on the 11th. If deep cold hasn’t shown up by this coming Wednesday THEN we can call torch. Go look at the 6z GEFS, the 2m and 850mb temps trended colder compared to 0z.

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8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Nice NC coastal snow at 108

6z GFS still shows it along with the day 8 event. Problem with both, the first is a clipper and the second is cold chasing/overtaking rain. Both can work(like last storm), but usually don't. Something to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get excited until we get a lot closer. 

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7 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS still shows it along with the day 8 event. Problem with both, the first is a clipper and the second is cold chasing/overtaking rain. Both can work(like last storm), but usually don't. Something to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get excited until we get a lot closer. 

The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern in the mid to long range.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern.

some think the models are golden and true, but they can’t beat God (NOT trying to stir a hornet nest, was just stating my opinion.)

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It's painful to have to watch the first half of February go down with a "close the blinds" pattern and a SE ridge.  Relying on the second half of February is really cutting it close.  I know we can snow in March, but they're just so meh and rare I don't follow.  

But who knows, we could get nice and cold...the STJ could kick in with the help of the MJO and we could get another Feb 26-27, 2004 to close out the winter! :o:snowing:

Can't complain though, I got a decent snow and I'm grateful for that.  Let's see what late February holds as a bonus...

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JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! 

He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!!

He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........

So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8....

He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March.

There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur.

The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! 

Hope everybody has a great day!

 

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GFS/Euro both give eastern NC a dusting Monday night....be interesting to see if the NAM picks up on it....shouldbt be much not enough moisture to turn into anything significant but if we can squeeze a .5-1" out of it it will be the 3rd time this year the ground is covered with snow...

 

MHX AFD

"Last several runs of ECM/GFS have come in
more bullish on moisture with this mid level feature. There will
be plenty of lift in the 850-700MB layer, and enough moisture
availability to squeeze out some light precip. Temps at the same
time will be cooling from top-down through the overnight, and
have introduced small pops for -SN or -SN/-RA late Mon night
through early Tue morning. Best chance for flakes will be across
nrn zones where deeper moisture and colder column coexist. At
this time not expecting travel problems as amounts look to be
quite light whatever falls.

gfs_asnow_seus_20.thumb.png.8f6947347eb864a1645abb1fa4f40ddf.png

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I’ve learned a lot this winter.  We don’t need a raging STJ to score big. 

 

STJ is a blessing and a curse.  Too much WAA for a lot of areas in this forum.  It seems they are storms with mixing issues (down here) but typically big ones.  

 

This northern stream dominant winter has been awesome.  Reminds me of the is book I read called who moved my cheese.   We are all looking for the perfect pattern when we had a -NAO and a STJ.  We can score in other ways too.  We keep going back to cheese station A looking for our perfect pattern.  It’s gone and may not comeback for a long time. Gotta find new cheese.  Northern stream isn’t all that bad.  Plenty of room in here for anyone else. 

 

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2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I’ve learned a lot this winter.  We don’t need a raging STJ to score big. 

 

STJ is a blessing and a curse.  Too much WAA for a lot of areas in this forum.  It seems they are storms with mixing issues (down here) but typically big ones.  

 

This northern stream dominant winter has been awesome.  Reminds me of the is book I read called who moved my cheese.   We are all looking for the perfect pattern when we had a -NAO and a STJ.  We can score in other ways too.  

Great book with a simple message. Must read for my kids and bought copies for friends that needed it.

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56 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! 

He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!!

He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........

So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8....

He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March.

There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur.

The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! 

Hope everybody has a great day!

 

He has been spot on this winter for sure. 

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57 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! 

He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!!

He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........

So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8....

He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March.

There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur.

The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! 

Hope everybody has a great day!

 

wow, the sure does sound optimistic AND it buys us another month of possible storms

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