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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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On 11/29/2018 at 6:20 PM, NCSNOW said:

The pound job just continues on 18z gfs for NC.  Some of the best computer generated snow over the past several years.

And dare I say it matches up well with my winter pre-season forecast. Burns would be buying me dinner before the 1st official day of winter even gets here lol.

Just saw this. Don't get too excited. Computer generated food tastes like crap.

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I am wondering why Griteater does not have his ProMet Tag? He sure has earned it! Love your input to the forum brother! Keep up the great work and I am always learning something from you! Hope you and your Family had a great Thanksgiving!

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2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Hideous run on the FV3 also. Low goes from north MS to off the ne coast.

How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol 

6D79F968-7C32-4438-B1A3-F29ABA64726D.png

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol 

 

Same way it gave us all a record snow storm last time it was 33 and rain :)

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43 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

How does FV3 figure this will happen from that run? Lol

Stock 10:1 with winter wx flag set but just guessing...

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Interested to see how this plays out, FV3 has consistently migrated towards more of a cutter or Miller b in last 4 model cycles. But eps and gefs look more like a classic Miller a type storm. Feel like early December climo favors WNC if we get Miller A look. Timing of the high pressure vs the storm will be key as well. We are far from final solution no matter what the outcome.

 

Many more opportunities later in December and early January when forcing becomes more favorable for Aleutian low/+PNA pattern + more favorable climo

 

 

.

 

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Gonna be much more intense system on 00z gfs than 18z looks warm we will see if HP over Midwest can move east for CAD


.

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our best storms come at the beginning or end of a pattern change! I’ll take my Dec ice storm and then torch until January 

Oh you'll torch until January and like it! Still undecided about your ice storm though!!

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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yep right in line with the Euro and FV3. Good thing the op runs are useless and we still have the ensembles! At least for a couple more hours days!

FYP

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As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run.  El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)

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As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run.  El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)

9285672ab6a7ac845befe80a81d29ebd.gif

It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out.......



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36 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:


It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out......

Yeah and if you go back and look at the 18z run, when our wave moves into west Texas, the 500mb height lines to our north are running from Chicago to DC. On the 00z run at the same wave location, the height lines are running from Chicago to New York City.  That difference is all it takes to get the low and associated warming to climb north

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0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm


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1 hour ago, HKY1894 said:

0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm


.

Why am I not surprised? We lose the GFS and gain the Euro. They are like an old married couple and can't agree on anything!

But seriously though I'll take the Euro at this range. As I stated yesterday it's time for the Euro op to hit if this threat is for real!

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The 6z GFS is colder (then 0z) for the start of the storm. CAD is stronger and large parts of NC start as snow before turning to rain. We still want it colder (longer lasting CAD) but definitely a great trend this morning. 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Lol..then after the first storm passes and pulls cold air down, a secondary low forms off the coast and provides a nice snow storm for central and eastern NC.  

Even gets some snow and ice to the Myrtle beach area.  Not expecting anything, but still encouraging to see.

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Just now, goldman75 said:

Even gets some snow and ice to the Myrtle beach area.  Not expecting anything, but still encouraging to see.

Yep, here you go (but at this time range this is fantasy/banter):

 

abcd.png

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A small note from RAH:

Southerly flow returns late in the period as a southern stream disturbance looks to gather strength and make a run toward the eastern CONUS over the weekend, with some early indications of a wintry mix possible. Be sure to check back later this week for more on that.

 

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