Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, wkd said: Just trying to keep hope alive. Control run. Yes, it is an outlier. That's too good to be true. Looks nice though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That's too good to be true. Looks nice though... It seems most of the good snow threats on the models more than 120hrs out have been too good to be true this winter. Man, I am getting so sick of rain. On the bright side, the resevoirs should be filling up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Up to 0.80" of rain so far today. Current temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, wkd said: It seems most of the good snow threats on the models more than 120hrs out have been too good to be true this winter. Man, I am getting so sick of rain. On the bright side, the resevoirs should be filling up nicely. Yep...already at .46" for the day. May hit 1" when all is said and done for today with stuff moving in. Had some good downpours over night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 H5 pattern upcoming isnt horrendous but I admittedly dont love what we are seeing. Still plenty of potential in early March but here's how Im seeing things attm, tho subject to change as lead times decrease. March 2-3 threat....-NAO in place but little in the way of cold air around. BL looks marginal, at best. Primary back in the upper midwest forced under the NAO block but the damage already done to the BL....storm redevelops off the DelMarVa, rots, then meanders SE under the block. Full lat trof tries to develop centered near the Mississippi River behind this storm which acts to weaken the strong -NAO block though it should re-emerge only not nearly as strong (a weak -NAO wont cut it in this pattern in March with a not-so-great PAC). This ridging also, once again, destroys the BL out ahead of the next threat with no real source of cold air prior to the energy rolling East. Next sw comes thru the NS around March 7-8 but with a weakish NAO look allows the primary low stronger and farther N. This actually is being reflected now as a fropa with a wave along the extended cold front on several pieces of guidance. Another threat emerges March 10-ish which actually looks like a better setup on paper, but once again, we are now chasing threats 12+ days out and we all know how that goes. This looks like a pattern where we either need a perfect bombing type MECS setup or we just get shutout with either cold rain and/or weak sauce....little in-between. So plenty of potential.....thats about all we can ask for in March, but quite honestly I would temper expectations for now. When we have to nitpick a needle in a haystack to find guidance that gives us a hit, it usually doesnt end well. Not giving up hope yet, but we keep pushing these threats back and we are starting to run out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: H5 pattern upcoming isnt horrendous but I admittedly dont love what we are seeing. Still plenty of potential in early March but here's how Im seeing things attm, tho subject to change as lead times decrease. March 2-3 threat....-NAO in place but little in the way of cold air around. BL looks marginal, at best. Primary back in the upper midwest forced under the NAO block but the damage already done to the BL....storm redevelops off the DelMarVa, rots, then meanders SE under the block. Full lat trof tries to develop centered near the Mississippi River behind this storm which acts to weaken the strong -NAO block though it should re-emerge only not nearly as strong (a weak -NAO wont cut it in this pattern in March with a not-so-great PAC). This ridging also, once again, destroys the BL out ahead of the next threat with no real soirce of cold air prior to the energy rolling East. Next sw comes thru the NS around March 7-8 but with a weakish NAO look allows the primary low stronger and farther N. This actually is being reflected now as a fropa with a wave along the extended cold front on several pieces of guidance. Another threat emerges March 10-ish which actually looks like a better setup on paper, but once again, we are now chasing threats 12+ days out and we all know how that goes. This looks like a pattern where we either need a perfect bombing type MECS setup or we just get shutout with either cold rain and/or weak sauce....little in-between. So plenty of potential.....thats about all we can ask for in March, but quite honestly I would temper expectations for now. When we have to nitpick a needle in a haystack to find guidance that gives us a hit, it usually doesnt end well. Not giving up hope yet, but we keep pushing these threats back and we are starting to run out of time Good post. Seems to pretty much follow the concensus opinion as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Good post. Seems to pretty much follow the concensus opinion as of now.Once that look of the nao linking up with the stj ridge began showing up a few days ago on guidance I began to get a pit in my stomach. The fact that it is a transient feature isnt terrible BUT now we are seeing signals that it may become a recurring theme in between storm threats. Again, I wouldnt stick a fork in March yet, but this look isnt really what we wanted to see. Maybe we can somehow trend away from a poor look for a change, who knows? Like I said tho, I think this setup overall is a thread the needle thing irt timing where we either fail or get clobbered with little in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Really is a shiety morning out there.Just took a drive to get gas. Mist..then rain...fog....crappy visibility....chilly, cold, damp. Thank God I don't have arthritis, it would probably kick in. Up to .54" for the day. Decent stuff moving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 11 minutes ago, wkd said: Good post. Seems to pretty much follow the concensus opinion as of now. Once that look of the nao linking up with the stj ridge began showing up a few days ago on guidance I began to get a pit in my stomach. The fact that it is a transient feature isnt terrible BUT now we are seeing signals that it may become a recurring theme in between storm threats. Again, I wouldnt stick a fork in March yet, but this look isnt really what we wanted to see. Maybe we can somehow trend away from a poor look for a change, who knows? Like I said tho, I think this setup overall is a thread the needle thing irt timing where we either fail or get clobbered with little in-between. Bottomline line is when you have a -3 or 4 NAO/AO combo and still can't score, you know its been a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Have been under steadier rain the past couple hours. Up to 0.67" with temp @ 44F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 No question , steady rain. Low/dark clouds...43.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 March 6-8 snowstorm potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I noticed my daffodils poking out of the ground yesterday. With all this rain, if we get another stretch of warm weather like last week, spring is going to explode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 0.75" of rain in NW Chesco since midnight. 1.43" over last 4 days. MTD we are now up to 6.80" still raining so we may move into 3rd wettest February on record (1894 to Present) behind only 1899 (10.22") / 1900 (7.75") / current 3rd rank 1902 (6.92"). Of interest also currently looking like we could finish as the 3rd warmest February on record behind only 2017 and 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Problem that happened was after the stratospheric warming event took place and the vortex split the bulk of the cold congregated on the other side of the globe continuing what is an historic winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: I noticed my daffodils poking out of the ground yesterday. With all this rain, if we get another stretch of warm weather like last week, spring is going to explode! I think March will be upper 40s...low 50s....a couple 60s. Even w/this rain, I don't see much growing. Just a guess but I don't see 70+F stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Have been under steadier rain the past couple hours. Up to 0.67" with temp @ 44F. Up to .71"...may eek out an 1". 44.4F...it's raw out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think March will be upper 40s...low 50s....a couple 60s. Even w/this rain, I don't see much growing. Just a guess but I don't see 70+F stuff... Yeah, I'm afraid you're right. After our little spring tease last week, we're probably looking at 2 straight months of 40's-50's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Come on guys global torching will save us i guarantee it. The coming blocking period doesn't look long lasting the second half of March will torch us to beach weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Have picked up 0.97" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 If anybody see's a guy dancing prancing down the street in a lil bit it's me and the reason is THE FRIGGEN BACK EDGE OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM HELL COLD RAIN IS HALF AN HOUR AWAY! Feels like it's been cold raining for ten days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 So how's the weather look for Seattle errrrr I mean Philadelphia? My car was stuck in the mud today; not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Am guessing this is about done (at least for measurable, although I might not rule out a few hundredths depending on what the hung-up warm front and later cold front do). Got 0.72" for the day. Currently overcast and 45F on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 And a new back edge of showers just cause it doesn't wanna stop raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, RedSky said: And a new back edge of showers just cause it doesn't wanna stop raining Thursday rain and low 50s....Friday rain and 40s. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Bring it! Actually it's not a bad thing, only in the last couple of weeks has any of it been sinking it. Snow would be most welcome, but I'm resigned to pre-spring mode now, only 4 -5 weeks or so till reasonable expectations of actual spring weather, with peepers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 45 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Bring it! Actually it's not a bad thing, only in the last couple of weeks has any of it been sinking it. Snow would be most welcome, but I'm resigned to pre-spring mode now, only 4 -5 weeks or so till reasonable expectations of actual spring weather, with peepers. armies of peepers have arisen here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: armies of peepers have arisen here already A regular uprising sounds like! Did hear a couple here one night last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Final rainfall total for the day is 0.97" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 JB predicting by Wednesday US models and Euro will start printing out some snow (but mainly rainstorm) down to Mason Dixon line - with 1 to 2ft of Snow for Poconos and on NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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