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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

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AM lows 34.5 in East Nantmeal and 41.2 in Sea Isle City NJ. While todays temps will be way above our normal high of around 50 degrees it will be nowhere near the daily chesco record set 6 years ago in 2011 of 68.5. Chester County Record Low for today was set 3 times with the last being the 13 degrees back in 1955

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Here in Chester County for November 2017 we ended up almost exactly normal with an average temp of 43.9 vs the average reading of 44.0. We had only 8 below freezing lows which is 5 below normal. We were however below normal in precip with just 1.89" falling and also 1.3" below normal in snowfall - none for the month and 1.6" below normal snow through November 30th

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12z Euro and CMC both give the area its first accumulating snow fall next weds-thurs. Only 1-3" but still would be the start of something. GFS isn't on board yet but shows the same set up. After that the cold is locked in. There are a few clipper systems in the LR but those details won't become certain until much closer. Once that front comes through next week, winter is here and doesn't look to be leaving any time soon. If we can manage 6 inches out of this pattern then i would consider it a very successful month. Even with BN temps, significant snowfalls just do not occur often in december in this area. Still encouraging that there are no signs of going back to warm through day 16 giving credence to this pattern being locked in at least for 3 or 4 weeks.

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33 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z Euro and CMC both give the area its first accumulating snow fall next weds-thurs. Only 1-3" but still would be the start of something. GFS isn't on board yet but shows the same set up. After that the cold is locked in. There are a few clipper systems in the LR but those details won't become certain until much closer. Once that front comes through next week, winter is here and doesn't look to be leaving any time soon. If we can manage 6 inches out of this pattern then i would consider it a very successful month. Even with BN temps, significant snowfalls just do not occur often in december in this area. Still encouraging that there are no signs of going back to warm through day 16 giving credence to this pattern being locked in at least for 3 or 4 weeks.

Meh my normal December snowfall would be 6" which has only been hit a couple times in the last 9 or 10 winters. With a cold December and probably the best pattern setup you could ever hope to get for the month i had better put up good numbers <8 will be a fail. Not the best chance hoping for some little wave behind a cold front i could count on one hand how many of them have worked out over my life.

 

 

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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Meh my normal December snowfall would be 6" which has only been hit a couple times in the last 9 or 10 winters. With a cold December and probably the best pattern setup you could ever hope to get for the month i had better put up good numbers <8 will be a fail. Not the best chance hoping for some little wave behind a cold front i could count on one hand how many of them have worked out over my life.

 

Greedy bastard! :)  Hell. I haven't seen a flake yet (you probably haven't either?) If I receive 4" for the month I'd be thrilled. Preferably 2-3" right before Christmas and 1" or so clipper event before New Years to freshen up things...

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12z Euro and CMC both give the area its first accumulating snow fall next weds-thurs. Only 1-3" but still would be the start of something. GFS isn't on board yet but shows the same set up. After that the cold is locked in. There are a few clipper systems in the LR but those details won't become certain until much closer. Once that front comes through next week, winter is here and doesn't look to be leaving any time soon. If we can manage 6 inches out of this pattern then i would consider it a very successful month. Even with BN temps, significant snowfalls just do not occur often in december in this area. Still encouraging that there are no signs of going back to warm through day 16 giving credence to this pattern being locked in at least for 3 or 4 weeks.

Theoretically based on some past Ninas, this pattern *could* be our entire winter crammed into a 2-3 week period. History tells us that most epic early-season patterns during La Nina tend to roll over rather abruptly without ever reverting back to the epic look again until too late in the season if at all. This is not my call but a few of the analog years from my winter outlook actually do tend to support this idea. That is also not to say the pattern change will turn mild or unfavorable just a change from the progged epic look. We can still have plenty of snow even in a just ok pattern without the epo/ao being off the charts. This is not my call, just noting sometimes when we get hit early and often things tend to balance out the remainder of winter and for everyone to just enjoy the cold and active period that is being forecast over the next few weeks. Should be some fun tracking ahead!

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Next weekend continues baby steps towards something. Huge differences from GFS runs.

6z run:

gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png

 

12z run: gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

Just need the trough more negative to pull the system out of the gulf closer. I'm going down with the ship on this one if I have to. This looks like our first threat of the young season and it wouldn't take much to have a nice accumulating snow. An inverted trough, however, looks to give NYC some snow on this run and the followup clipper looks to bring some snow showers as well.

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12z ECM possibly the first legit threat of the young winter hours 144-168hr, i say possibly it's the first run showing it the GFS was close and it's often late to the party. 

 

 

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Sticking with the Dec 5-10 range for first legit threat of the season.though cearly models have started to zero-in on a December 8ish date. Ops finally getting in medium range and beginning to reflect more digging and amplification in the shortwave and trof in the midwest. Another key is the WAR development and slight retrogression of the -NAO which will determine proximity to coast. No model is really blowing this up at our latitude which is a good thing. Prefer a neutral tilted trof pulling NNE and skirting the region as opposed to overamplification with the warm SSTs still early in December. Some uncertainties but I still like this range for something to pop. Plenty more chances as the month progresses as well.

 

 

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Fwiw, Euro op says SE PA sees a general 4-8" of snowfall accumulation between 12/8 and 12/12. Couple events in that period with more threats to follow. Impressive early season cold and active storm pattern for sure.


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0z op euro no snow through day 10 - hope we not going to do that euro fake storm day 6-7 thing again like the last couple years ugh

 

I realize you didnt cancel the Friday event and are just noting the Euro past tendencies so this isnt aimed at you....dont live and die/flip-flop with every model run, especially during this sort of pattern at that range in trying to nail down 'specific' storms. The threat is still legit for Friday and that is where we stand right now, no more no less. 0z NAVGEM was a red flag as to why the Euro likely hiccuped at 0z. 6z GFS just reinforced that for now. Not set in stone yet but our legit threat has not changed imo:
ee68b750d619f586b30c3573de367eb4.jpg59a6feea4c0d03e32e009d52b421012f.jpg

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Trough axis for Friday has morphed into a decidedly unfavorable one for snow the last 12hrs Ralphie. It's a thread the needle threat now and the thread is rather thick.

 

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12z GFS is the December disaster of a lifetime if it played out exactly as depicted lol which of course it won't. But goes to show there is always the chance we get skunked with the cold in an 80's kinda way.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Pretty super looking moonrise out there!

Yes I saw that half hour ago the moon looked like a big pizza pie, that's amore

 

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Within 130 hours now from the potential storm Friday-Saturday and I like where we sit. The models continue to waffle around with the shortwave energy and will probably persist on that until the s/w gets properly sampled. The EPS likes the threat for the meantime and the GFS and Euro have shown promise occasionally as well. The past couple of years have given us some nice surprises with a NW trend of storms, one storm being the 1/7/17 storm last winter. Hopefully this can be another case of the NW trend.

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Trough axis for Friday has morphed into a decidedly unfavorable one for snow the last 12hrs Ralphie. It's a thread the needle threat now and the thread is rather thick.

 

 

 

I dont see any significant negative changes on any model actually. If anything, there has been decent improvements over the past 3 suites. We are still 120 hours out from this so sure, it could trend worse, but there is much greater upside. This is less of a thread the needle than you are assuming. Cold front pushes thru, all levels cool significantly, wave forms along old front, flakes fall. Accums tbd but GFS just continued to tick W and now shows a slushy 1-3"/2-4" for us. CMC late to game as always but took a significant jump towards the GFS and Euro. This is a legit threat for 1st accums of the year. If not Friday, followup wave gets us over the weekend. Hang in there Red.....too early in the season for you to bounce around with each model/run. You are in mid-season form already....this isnt what I meant when I said early and often in my winter outlook ;-)

 

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Some guidance upping the ante over the weekend and digging a potent shortwave south of us. Needs to be watched. Spacing between 2 potential systems will also be a deciding factor BUT those digging shortwaves like this that hit the coast can sometimes pop a slp and/or convergence meso-band of precip just to the N or NW of the vorticity. Something else to watch anyway. Here comes the cold and activity.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont see any significant negative changes on any model actually. If anything, there has been decent improvements over the past 3 suites. We are still 120 hours out from this so sure, it could trend worse, but there is much greater upside. This is less of a thread the needle than you are assuming. Cold front pushes thru, all levels cool significantly, wave forms along old front, flakes fall. Accums tbd but GFS just continued to tick W and now shows a slushy 1-3"/2-4" for us. CMC late to game as always but took a significant jump towards the GFS and Euro. This is a legit threat for 1st accums of the year. If not Friday, followup wave gets us over the weekend. Hang in there Red.....too early in the season for you to bounce around with each model/run. You are in mid-season form already....this isnt what I meant when I said early and often in my winter outlook ;-)

 

Performance of the euro OP is disappointing it has lost it's consistency.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Some guidance upping the ante over the weekend and digging a potent shortwave south of us. Needs to be watched. Spacing between 2 potential systems will also be a deciding factor BUT those digging shortwaves like this that hit the coast can sometimes pop a slp and/or convergence meso-band of precip just to the N or NW of the vorticity. Something else to watch anyway. Here comes the cold and activity.

Check out the hilarious GFS snow map through 324hr in the MA thread they are talking civil war lol

 

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Check out the hilarious GFS snow map through 324hr in the MA thread they are talking civil war lol

 

 

 

GFS is crazy active. Miller A followed by several clippers and a Miller B or 2 thrown in for good measure. It is refreshing to see the return of the clipper after several years!

 

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