The Iceman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Was away in DC for the weekend to visit my brother and go to the sixers game last night but catching up, to me it looks like winter is on life support for at least 95 s and e. Not enough cold air around meaning most of our precip is a cold rain. Going to need to see some changes soon but i am close to throwing in the towel for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Was away in DC for the weekend to visit my brother and go to the sixers game last night but catching up, to me it looks like winter is on life support for at least 95 s and e. Not enough cold air around meaning most of our precip is a cold rain. Going to need to see some changes soon but i am close to throwing in the towel for winter. You jinxed them damnit! First loss since the Birds SB victory. They had a nice run....7 in a row I think. Yeah, I'm practically done with Winter. I see several instances of precip being around but just don't have enough cold. If you're a fan of cold rain/damp then enjoy the next couple weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Definitely more clouds today than originally thought. Sun showed a couple peeks but now overcast again. 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 For those that want to see the early peepers buried alive ECM has a wild storm day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 12z euro op from 3/5 to 3/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 hours ago, The Iceman said: .... i am close to throwing in the towel for winter. We need more posts like this from you! Only minutes after you post this the Euro comes in with a MECS/HECS, lol. Well, it will be gone by 0Z anyway, so enjoy, but I'm with you Ice.....this season is just about in the books unless some big time changes happen SOON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 hours ago, wkd said: 12z euro op from 3/5 to 3/8. Wake me when this look is 72 hours out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wake me when this look is 72 hours out...... You have been really negative lately. Can't figure why. Ýou really blew the leadup to the 2/17 event. Should have listened to the Iceman:). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM trending towards wet snow showers here Thurs PM-Fri as the system occludes off the coast. Will be nice to see some flakes flying and some wind gusts anyway even if we dont see accums. 72 hours out now :-D Maybe we can trend towards something more substantial later in the March 3-10 period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM trending towards wet snow showers here Thurs-Fri as the system occludes off the coast. Will be nice to see some flakes flying and some wind gusts anyway even if we dont see accums. Maybe we can trend towards something later in the March 3-10 period? It's going to be white rain if it does happen which I find more annoying and frustrating. If it only sticks to the grass/trees only...ok. But when it doesn't stick to anything I don't even want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need more posts like this from you! Only minutes after you post this the Euro comes in with a MECS/HECS, lol. Well, it will be gone by 0Z anyway, so enjoy, but I'm with you Ice.....this season is just about in the books unless some big time changes happen SOON! We are very close to the point that barring a dynamic storm, we really can't get significant snow. pattern doesn't look cold. The only way we are going to see a storm is if it is a MECS/HECS and the odds are always, always against them..especially in mid march. The look from maech 1-15th overall doesn't look bad but it just will still require a lot to go right in order for us to score. We don't see abnormally cold air in place so even though we have the blocking and will be on the cold side of a storm most of the time, we just don't have a cold enough airmass for this to matter. In jan, we could overcome this as seasonable is still cool but march it's tough. So we are going to need a bombing low that takes a perfect track in order to score. As some OP runs have shown, it isn't impossible but the odds aren't high either. We maybe see some wet flakes thurs night/fri but this one is mostly rain imo. The march 7-9th deal is intriguing but again I don't see a source of cold air other than the storm dynamically cooling so we better hope for some good luck... all in all I think this pattern will be fun to track as I think we'll continue to see some real doozies in the medium long range on the OP's the next few days but when it comes to scoring, we are going to need some good luck. I hope the March 7-9th deal will at least warrant enough of a threat to start a thread and we'll see if I can conjure up some more magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 -NAO's have a 0.50-0.60 correlation to a really thin strip of water right off the Mid-Atlantic/NJ coast. The land-water friction makes more sense when there is no flow because things are blocky. I think we could have a few bombing tropical wind storms in this pattern. Low will not be able to move out to sea like GFS has because of Atlantic ridge. I think it will either fizzle out or redevelop south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Should be just enough cold air around for the 2nd event to bring some snow to the area....I can see one of these (#2 or #3) in the series ending up being an elevation driven storm where in the lower spots of Chesco it's 34 with white rain while up a few hundred feet here in East Nantmeal it's 32 and a paste job. Still thinking we see a significant 6" or so storm above 600 feet in N and W burbs over next couple weeks....we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOL and the 12z euro shows a paste bomb via inverted trough for all points N and W of PHL on friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z euro gets snow to our area. Nam is rain but 850's are plenty cold. Surface is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 euro is the clear clear outlier and the other models look nothing similar at the surface...that being said, it is in its wheelhouse so it'll be interesting to see if there are any ticks in the euros directions at 18z from the other models...also will be interesting to see the hi res models for the temps. most likely though the euro just corrects itself at 00z. still reading mt hollys disco this morning, they seemed very unsure about whether snow would be put into the forecast eventually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: euro is the clear clear outlier and the other models look nothing similar at the surface...that being said, it is in its wheelhouse so it'll be interesting to see if there are any ticks in the euros directions at 18z from the other models...also will be interesting to see the hi res models for the temps. most likely though the euro just corrects itself at 00z. still reading mt hollys disco this morning, they seemed very unsure about whether snow would be put into the forecast eventually... You're right about the euro but it was also the outlier for the 2/17 event, being the the most amped, but it didn't waver much. Would be neat if we get another EE rule event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Totally mystified at the ECM's solution with that much of a short lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Totally mystified at the ECM's solution with that much of a short lead it's a major wrench thrown right as I was ready to completely write this one off... but let's say the other models start trending the euro''s way at 18z... with such a strong block incoming, it's hard to say ehh toss it. screw it. I willed the last one, i'm starting a thread to will this one back too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: it's a major wrench thrown right as I was ready to completely write this one off... but let's say the other models start trending the euro''s way at 18z... with such a strong block incoming, it's hard to say ehh toss it. screw it. I willed the last one, i'm starting a thread to will this one back too Here's the thing the wbell map is counting sleet as snow, it's a major IP storm for us like March 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Here's the thing the wbell map is counting sleet as snow, it's a major IP storm for us like March 2007 That's ok - where do I sign? We can sort out the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: That's ok - where do I sign? We can sort out the details later. NAM got me in the 1" zone but i want to be closer to the 30" near Boston. Seriously what is 1" in Morch my daffodils will be sticking up unsightly like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM got me in the 1" zone but i want to be closer to the 30" near Boston. Seriously what is 1" in Morch my daffodils will be sticking up unsightly like. Lol - maybe they'll be encrusted with wind driven wet snow and it can be a feature - how about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro and GFS suggest we continue to nickel and dime our snowfalls this season and try and get some spots in SE PA from right around avg seasonal snowfall where we are right now to above avg (slightly). I was thinking we were entering a go big or go home pattern first half of March but guidance suggesting a couple more small events thru mid month with the NAO in negative territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro and GFS suggest we continue to nickel and dime our snowfalls this season and try and get some spots in SE PA from right around avg seasonal snowfall where we are right now to above avg (slightly). I was thinking we were entering a go big or go home pattern first half of March but guidance suggesting a couple more small events thru mid month with the NAO in negative territory. I actually could see this... a few 1-3 2-4" on the grass storms then maybe a big one before the pattern changes. Would really fit with this winter if we get 2 more 1-3" type deals and call it a winter. Most areas would be at around average with really no one seeing over 6 inches in a singles storm outside localized areas. Pretty impressive honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I actually could see this... a few 1-3 2-4" on the grass storms then maybe a big one before the pattern changes. Would really fit with this winter if we get 2 more 1-3" type deals and call it a winter. Most areas would be at around average with really no one seeing over 6 inches in a singles storm outside localized areas. Pretty impressive honestly.And not a single WSWarning event for extreme SE PA possibly. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS wants no part of this Friday's system but continues to want to pound our region with snow in the long range (next chance in about 1 week). Neg NAO should produce *something* for us over the next 2 weeks. I would actually be very surprised if we are completely shutout before the 3rd week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS wants no part of this Friday's system but continues to want to pound our region with snow in the long range (next chance in about 1 week). Neg NAO should produce *something* for us over the next 2 weeks. I would actually be very surprised if we are completely shutout before the 3rd week of March. Read the GFS was improved. Wouldn't be surprised if it caught up late on a system like this. That said, I do think the better potential for a big snow is later in March. Should have a few threats before spring takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Dr Maybe is 1-3" for most here. 4" in an isolated region specifically upper bucks, yes seriously. Very similar to yesterdays 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Not sure why but a EuroWx map posted is mostly ugly white rain to 1" far upper bucks, weather.us looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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