Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Tagging onto Flash's post earlier....the Euro's trend has been to suppress systems. The 12z cold is putting the squeeze on the system at hour 132. The 0z run was not bad either. The 12z run actually catches the cold before it retreats and is colder overall w more snow into southern KY. That run was close. I think until the pattern switches mid-month...beware of systems that appear amped. Four our five runs ago this system was a cutter with a well defined slp from the SW to Michigan. Now, it(the slp) is barely getting enough latitude to get north of the TN border. Need to watch this system. This last run has a weak low in SE Georgia. It is in an ideal spot to run a wave on an incoming, strong cold front. edited.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Also...need to watch the system right after the 132 system. If the trend us suppression until mid month....that one also has to be watched. It is pretty amazing just how far south the system at 132 has moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 As for winter...definitely a thaw coming. I think it will be warm, maybe very warm. But, the strength and duration is still TBD. But the trend has been seen on the Weeklies for some time....but the MJO(as long as it stays on an inferred schedule) and the Weeklies hint that winter will return by the second week of Feb. I like the thaw being from Jan 20 - Feb 10. Again, JB likes three weeks. I suspect winter comes back. The past half year has featured strong warm-ups where cold build and heads SE. With more cold in the equation, that cycle is faster now. JB also pointed out, and I agree again(less hype this year BTW), is that many great winters featured a thaw. I have been on the fence about winter coming back...but I lean strongly now towards yes. A few days ago, I leaned towards it not returning. Always possible that it does not return. And it is also possible that the warm-up is short-lived as it has been pushed back repeatedly. If the script were flipped and we had been waiting for cold in mid Jan, there would be concern that the duration of cold would be shorter. I think once the warm-up begins, we will likely be a able to see the makings for its demise on the LR models. I think the -QBO is not going to want to see that trough set up shop in the West. The Weeklies also hinted at a -NAO (believe it when I see it) and a strong western ridge returning. Hopefully, when we get to March all of us will be ready to say uncle due to tiring of cold and tracking winter storms. As for Canada being emptied of cold...was reading Bob Chill(think I have that right), and he basically said if the ridge returns out West, Canada can replenish cold in a snap. We need cold fronts here in order to have cold. They make their own cold. He also mentioned that the cold air mass has not been bullied often by the Pacific... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh it will Snow next week, book it, I was scheduled to take next week off but I took this week instead! So yea it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: On the plus side, if the GFS is correct I'll be de-winterizing the camper and spending some quality time in the great outdoors! I'll also be able to get these chickens out of my garage and back into their pen. The dry cold is awful, I'll take a torch over this mess anytime. Hey, how cold does it have to be for chickens to need being sequestered to the garage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On a short term note, the 12z suite of the RGEM and 12k NAM show a steady stream of light snow out of the Plains at hour 35. The NAM dissipates it just prior to reaching the forum area. The RGEM looks healthier. Also, the RGEM has consistently shown snow showers beginning around hour 20. Both are light events, but with frozen ground...won't take much to make a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, how cold does it have to be for chickens to need being sequestered to the garage? I know plenty of people that never bring chickens in or heat the coop regardless of how cold it gets. My mom recalls having some combs freeze off of chickens in below zero temps when she was growing up but they always survived. But, I bring mine in when it gets this cold for two reasons; 1) they are spoiled pets and get warm ramen noodles and oatmeal twice a day. I just can't stand the thought of them being so damn cold out there. 2) it's a pain to have to constantly swap frozen waterers out and I don't have electricity out at the coop yet to rig up a warming device (although I plan on eventually installing a solar charged battery with inverter to do just that. So to answer your question, I don't know how cold it has to be to kill a chicken, but I don't want to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Hey...if we can muster 0.03"-0.05" QPF at a 15:1 ratio, that's a ~1/2"-3/4". We are having to dig deep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I know plenty of people that never bring chickens in or heat the coop regardless of how cold it gets. My mom recalls having some combs freeze off of chickens in below zero temps when she was growing up but they always survived. But, I bring mine in when it gets this cold for two reasons; 1) they are spoiled pets and get warm ramen noodles and oatmeal twice a day. I just can't stand the thought of them being so damn cold out there. 2) it's a pain to have to constantly swap frozen waterers out and I don't have electricity out at the coop yet to rig up a warming device (although I plan on eventually installing a solar charged battery with inverter to do just that. So to answer your question, I don't know how cold it has to be to kill a chicken, but I don't want to find out. Great info. My wife really wants chickens...but we have bear problems. Those bears seem to like chickens. And the neighbors several blocks over, maybe not so coincidentally, might have a propensity for shooting bears out of season. The whole chicken/bear relatiosnhip is out of whack in my neighborhood. On another note, we need to get Reb posting some more. Be sure to send him our regards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Have I mentioned I love playing horseshoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I know plenty of people that never bring chickens in or heat the coop regardless of how cold it gets. My mom recalls having some combs freeze off of chickens in below zero temps when she was growing up but they always survived. But, I bring mine in when it gets this cold for two reasons; 1) they are spoiled pets and get warm ramen noodles and oatmeal twice a day. I just can't stand the thought of them being so damn cold out there. 2) it's a pain to have to constantly swap frozen waterers out and I don't have electricity out at the coop yet to rig up a warming device (although I plan on eventually installing a solar charged battery with inverter to do just that. So to answer your question, I don't know how cold it has to be to kill a chicken, but I don't want to find out. He He! A chicken post. I was down to 2 degrees yesterday morning and mine were out there, even got 11 eggs. I take them some fresh water at daylight and then again before dark. Just bring in one of the waterers to thaw overnight. My old coop is only partially enclosed but I've thrown a tarp over it at times. Throw some old hay in there if we are going to have extended snow cover. The worst Ive had is a couple cases of partially frozen combs. I know we take pets seriously these days but after keeping livestock for years the key is fresh water and some feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So...I took at look at the GEFS and GEPS from d10-15. The western ridge is acting like a SER. Gets beat down, but does not want to leave. Both surface maps are not particularly bad. The surface maps look better than the 500 maps. The GEPS is cold. The GEFS has temps still trying to get out of the 40s. Generally, I favor the EPS....but it seems far too warm compared to the other 12z models. It may very well be right, but did want to note that it lacks support at the surface from days 10-15. And after another look, the western ridge is still there at d15 on the EPS, but squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Anyone have any specs/takes on the latest Euro? Chris Bailey@ #kywx on Twitter noted the latest model shows a 'significant winter weather' event Sunday and Monday. I know we're talking about our next door neighbors to the north, but I'm still curious. That is what I was talking about above....I just looked at the EPS, and it is further south now as well relative to previous runs. Still cuts, but is much more limited in latitude. This has gone from a cutter to Michigan on the operational...to where the slp barely gets to the TN border. The EPS has a cluster in NW TN, but even that is a big change to the east and south. If it trends that way again, we are all in the game. If it makes that move a second time, Pensacola is in the game. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not a lock by any means...but this trend began yesterday at 12z. It has marginal air to work with, but has a front pressing with it. If it keeps trending south, could be winter wx for areas even south of KY. The one right behind it also has to be watched. The biggest difference this run is that it has sped up, and subsequently trapped cold from a retreating hp. It is not out of the realm of possibility that this could round the base of the Apps as opposed to sliding off. 0z had a far inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here's a few pics from charleston SC today. The pictures were taken a few hours apart so you can see how much Snow has fallen over about 3 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Happy for our Carolina and southeast Virginia friends. Now for the good, the bad, and the ugly in reverse order. The ugly, that system next week will be rain for most of us except the Plateau and high valleys. Carolinas might get CAD but they can have it if it's ice. The bad, it will warm up for 10-14 days. Actually it's not so bad if one needs a break from the cold. Thought time in Chicago last week would climatize me. Nope! Tacking on extra days at the front end just makes the cold worse back here, lol. The good, winter is coming back. Carvers mentioned the reasoning and I agree. Sensible weather has been variable (big temp swings) averaging near normal. I will go with persistence. More cold is due later in January and/or in February. In Feb the storms are less likely to hug the Gulf Coast, in contrast with winter to-date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z GFS takes the weekend system to the gulf. 2m temps are mid 30’s but WAA is strong at 850. If that’s wrong, we might be in business. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z GFS takes the weekend system to the gulf. 2m temps are mid 30’s but WAA is strong at 850. If that’s wrong, we might be in business. .Looking at this again, that could be a moisture transfer. Either way if we could get the system to dig or transfer faster it would help. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if the system next week trends into a snowstorm for someone from New Orleans to Charleston, SC the way it's going this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: I wouldn't be surprised if the system next week trends into a snowstorm for someone from New Orleans to Charleston, SC the way it's going this winter. LOL. You know it! These cutters have been a red herring all winter. I mean at some point they will cut...but w the current patternin, we may need a storm cutting to Missoula, MT, in order to deal w the correction after....I remember several years where the opposite occurred, and the models would bring systems north. We wanted those storms over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 38 minutes ago, John1122 said: I wouldn't be surprised if the system next week trends into a snowstorm for someone from New Orleans to Charleston, SC the way it's going this winter. Yeah it is pretty disappointing when San Antonio Texas and Jacksonville Florida see snow before us. Hopefully something pans out for our forum soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 If one wanted to play the 1989-90 analog...Charleston, SC, had a big snow there in late December. Virtually the same time frame as now is when it happened. That is my most hated analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 ...on a short term note, nice little line of snow showers heading SE out of KY that might have some minor impacts on the eastern half of the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If one wanted to play the 1989-90 analog...Charleston, SC, had a big snow there in late December. Virtually the same time frame as now is when it happened. That is my most hated analog. I’m also concerned, on this side of the mountains, with an 84-85 repeat. January was cold as all get out but we did nothing in snow that winter. and for the record, we’re about in the same boat as y’all around CLT and GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'm not sure what's killing clippers so badly this year. Usually when one dropped into Missouri we were in a great spot. This year they just get eaten alive and die over Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 GFS shifted northwest by about 950 miles. Canadian takes the storm across I-40 and follows it with a mega clipper that brings mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Euro back north with everything. Maybe some moisture catches cold Sunday night. Otherwise rainy weather on tap. Probably warm up after and then hope as others have pointed out, for a better pattern in February, but at this rate I won't be surprised if this winter is as snowless as last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looks like on the 06Z run of the GFS that the warm-up is pushed back or still in the extended; seems like this is what we usually go through looking for the cold in the winter. My impression of modeling in general lately is that they cannot be trusted in that they are bouncing around allot or seem to be. For example, over a week ago, had modeling really grabbed onto the current storm going up the East Coast? My impression is that they did not. I could be mistaken though allot of you have been watching weather longer than me. Seems like I read too that the European was indicating another Arctic cold shot next week, course this was first of the week, now, it is either muted or gone altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 hours ago, John1122 said: I'm not sure what's killing clippers so badly this year. Usually when one dropped into Missouri we were in a great spot. This year they just get eaten alive and die over Missouri. Yeah it is strange, if there is a bright spot on the one coming down today it is larger in radar returns currently than the HRRR forecasts it to be for the same timeframe; that said its still meager in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The 0z EPS mean is even further south with the next system. Another big shift south. The mean has the slp rolling along the Gulf Coast, and then crushes it even further south. The control is north of the mean...but it has moved south as well. Even after that, the second system that cuts to Wisconsin (on the op) looks different on the EPS. It has a cluster of lows well south that actually slide across the forum area. The temps with both systems are marginal. I think the trend is interesting because the cutters are not verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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